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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Blueprint Medicines Corporation (XNAS:BPMC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BPMC
Name:
BLUEPRINT MEDICINES CORPORATION (XNAS:BPMC)
Sector:
- 133879.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. Jeffrey Albers
Total Employees:
580
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 23.84% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BLUEPRINT MEDICINES CORPORATION(BPMC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
72.92
One Month Price Target:
$73.23
Six Month Price Target :
$74.77
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$76.63
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$72.53
Price Upper limit ($) :
$73.4
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$67.74
This week:
$61.33
This month :
$49.74
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.22B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
59.72M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.08%
-18.21%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$96.97
$85.94
$48.87
$59.90
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$82.35
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$79.99
$63.46
$65.85
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BPMC
Sharpe Ratio:
1.50%
Comparison:
BPMC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -22.72% lower than the industry
& is -34.07% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BPMC
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.31%
Monthly returns:
1.23%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -41.68% below industry average
Classification:
BPMC, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.75
Statistical test of Returns:
BPMC has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.49%
Weekly Volatility:
7.80%
Monthly Volatility:
15.61%
Yearly Volatility:
54.07%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.60%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -54.02% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.11%
Weekly VaR:
-15.89%
Monthly VaR:
-31.78%
How Much Can the price of
BPMC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$52.94
This translates to price declining to:
$10.94
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BPMC is a 124.32% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 92.18% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -26.59% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BPMC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.76
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.795
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.124
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.679
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.064
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.841
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.842
Beta is -10.18% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -34.31% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.064
Alpha is -55.03% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 406% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BPMC
Equity cost of capital:
0.083
Equity cost of capital is -24.52% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.47%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.40%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.32%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.32%
WACC is -16.59% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.70
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.94
Annual revenue growth rate is -60.65% below industry average
EPS:
-$11.05
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
14.84%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 48.68% higher than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$1.69
EBITDA per share
-$10.72
Valuation Analysis Today of
BPMC
P/E Ratio:
17.19
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
226.72
P/E ratio is -92.42% lower than main peers & is -80.84% lower than the industry
-
BPMC is -107.35% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
19.68
Price to sales ratio is -51.40% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.94
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
118.94%
Net income growth rate is 68.51% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
11.43%
Net debt to equity ratio:
8.20%
Debt to assets ratio:
8.81%
Net debt to assets ratio:
6.33%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -79.09% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-1448.52
Interest coverage ratio is 1124.00% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
24.33%
Annual debt growth is -82% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.511
Statistical significance of correlation:
BPMC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 50.37% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.029
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.059
Kurtosis
4.313
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.015
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BPMC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
345%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-292.70%
Operating profit margin is -31.72% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
345%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.49%
Effective tax rate is -108.63% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-73.77%
Return on equity (ROE) is 28.66% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-56.88%
Return on assets (ROA) is 178.81% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
5.02
Current ratio is -38.04% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-9.1
Cash conversion cycle is -101.71% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-3.60%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
381.4K
Each employee generates -76% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 1103.9K
Each employee generates -387% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 1121.3K
Each employee generates -976% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 230.8K
Each employee generates -257% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
786.3K
Each employee generates -257% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 83.88%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -2438.04% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
BPMC
VIR BIOTECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:VIR)
ALLAKOS INC. (XNAS:ALLK)
TWIST BIOSCIENCE CORPORATION (XNAS:TWST)
TG THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:TGTX)
ACADIA HEALTHCARE COMPANY, INC. (XNAS:ACHC)
Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (XNAS:TNDM)
KODAL MINERALS PLC (XLON:KOD)
SHOCKWAVE MEDICAL, INC. (XNAS:SWAV)
IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:IONS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�21%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
221.24M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
22.91M
198.32M
624.46M
-
210.35M
-
11.07M
845.87M
2.09M
442.00K
6.50M
- 640244.00K
- 647547.00K
- 650370.00K
- 647185.00K
3.19M
- 650370.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.63M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
23.40M
Change in Working Capital :
- 54604.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 3645.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 13251.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.85M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 132726.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1153.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 39937.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
37.20M
549.63M
586.83M
32.60M
30.15M
37.68M
687.24M
119.23M
-
-
306.53M
-
30.31M
456.06M
-
1.14B
17.96M
8.76M
-
9.60M
100.70M
137.03M
100.76M
10.13M
124.62M
-
261.64M
60.00K
- 1381440.00K
- 12110.0K
2.28B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
868.78M
881.67M
1.14B
856.15M
109.52M
72.3M
-
-
- 41090.00K
-
-
-
-
1.26M
1.26M
- 197.00K
- 172749.00K
42.37M
215.12M
- 132726.00K
- 1153.00K
- 133879.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BPMC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$76.87
$80.78
$84.89
$89.20
$93.74