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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Bluebird Bio, Inc. (XNAS:BLUE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BLUE
Name:
BLUEBIRD BIO, INC. (XNAS:BLUE)
Sector:
- 126153.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. Nick Leschly
Total Employees:
518
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 37.11% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BLUEBIRD BIO, INC.(BLUE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
6.83
One Month Price Target:
$6.87
Six Month Price Target :
$7.08
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$7.34
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$6.76
Price Upper limit ($) :
$6.87
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$6.11
This week:
$5.23
This month :
$3.62
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
491.27M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
77.12M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.05%
-37.85%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.16
$8.68
$3.50
$4.98
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$8.20
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$7.88
$5.46
$5.78
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BLUE
Sharpe Ratio:
-4.10%
Comparison:
BLUE, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -311.02% lower than the industry
& is -280.02% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BLUE
Daily returns:
-0.20%
Weekly returns:
-0.98%
Monthly returns:
-3.94%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -287.33% below industry average
Classification:
BLUE, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.34
Statistical test of Returns:
BLUE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.01%
Weekly Volatility:
11.21%
Monthly Volatility:
22.42%
Yearly Volatility:
77.67%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
6.20%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 23.63% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.49%
Weekly VaR:
-23.47%
Monthly VaR:
-46.93%
How Much Can the price of
BLUE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-44%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$3.84
This translates to price declining to:
$1.02
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BLUE is a 231.24% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 183.77% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 5.46% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BLUE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.10
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.585
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.827
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.835
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.154
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.796
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.156
Beta is -4.44% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -4.08% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.580
Alpha is -508.68% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -3690% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BLUE
Equity cost of capital:
0.107
Equity cost of capital is -2.91% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.11%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.15%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.12%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.12%
WACC is -8.08% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-$0.09
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2
Annual revenue growth rate is -116.48% below industry average
EPS:
-$10.48
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-17.08%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -271.10% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$1.10
EBITDA per share
-$9.34
Valuation Analysis Today of
BLUE
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
512.86
-
-
BLUE is -100.73% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
-73.29
Price to sales ratio is -280.95% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
23.41%
Net income growth rate is -66.84% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
32.22%
Net debt to equity ratio:
1.55%
Debt to assets ratio:
17.27%
Net debt to assets ratio:
0.83%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -59.03% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-4260.7
Interest coverage ratio is 3500.31% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.361
Statistical significance of correlation:
BLUE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 6.21% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.049
Kurtosis
8.134
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.695
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BLUE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-632%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6679.41%
Operating profit margin is -1658.13% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-632%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.04%
Effective tax rate is -100.70% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-279.47%
Return on equity (ROE) is 387.44% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-149.82%
Return on assets (ROA) is 634.32% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.78
Current ratio is -77.96% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-55.7
Cash conversion cycle is -110.45% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-1.68%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
- 13.9K
Each employee generates -101% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 1390.1K
Each employee generates -461% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 1420.3K
Each employee generates -1210% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 243.5K
Each employee generates -265% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
455.9K
Each employee generates -265% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -45.58%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 1170.56% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
BLUE
CAREMAX, INC. (XNAS:CMAX)
ABSCI CORPORATION (XNAS:ABSI)
IMAGO BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:IMGO)
CUTERA, INC. (XNAS:CUTR)
CATALYST PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:CPRX)
ADAGIO THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:ADGI)
Precigen, Inc. (XNAS:PGEN)
Surmodics, Inc. (XNAS:SRDX)
EAGLE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:EGRX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�29%
Hold�21%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
- 7187.00K
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
44.89M
- 52073.00K
243.95M
-
163.22M
-
-
407.17M
275.00K
169.00K
15.30M
- 720058.00K
- 480049.00K
- 735722.00K
- 478790.00K
192.00K
- 735722.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.01M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
12.39M
Change in Working Capital :
- 26764.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
10.22M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 125296.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 857.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
106.26M
105.33M
211.59M
11.53M
-
31.80M
254.92M
123.13M
5.65M
-
55.05M
-
52.33M
236.15M
-
491.07M
28.35M
25.51M
-
1.82M
87.21M
142.89M
84.83M
92.00K
84.92M
-
227.81M
714.00K
- 3842077.00K
- 4459.0K
4.11B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
452.59M
263.26M
491.07M
160.38M
110.34M
4.1M
70.78M
-
69.93M
-
-
-
-
9.00K
9.00K
-
- 55361.00K
151.33M
206.69M
- 125296.00K
- 857.00K
- 126153.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BLUE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$7.36
$7.91
$8.50
$9.13
$9.81