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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Blue Bird Corporation (XNAS:BLBD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BLBD
Name:
BLUE BIRD CORPORATION (XNAS:BLBD)
Sector:
- 33077.00K
Industry:
Auto Manufacturers
CEO:
Mr. Philip Horlock
Total Employees:
1,790
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -21.79% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BLUE BIRD CORPORATION(BLBD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AUTO MANUFACTURERS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
11.45
One Month Price Target:
$11.52
Six Month Price Target :
$11.88
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$12.31
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$11.37
Price Upper limit ($) :
$11.53
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$10.53
This week:
$9.38
This month :
$7.32
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
360.92M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
32.02M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.%
-22.18%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$15.74
$13.79
$7.16
$9.11
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$13.16
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.74
$9.74
$10.16
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BLBD
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.40%
Comparison:
BLBD, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -110.80% lower than the industry
& is -117.34% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BLBD
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.03%
Monthly returns:
-0.13%
Yearly returns:
42.77%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -103.74% below industry average
Classification:
BLBD, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.38
Statistical test of Returns:
BLBD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.92%
Weekly Volatility:
8.77%
Monthly Volatility:
17.55%
Yearly Volatility:
60.79%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.49%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -61.99% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.07%
Weekly VaR:
-18.04%
Monthly VaR:
-36.07%
How Much Can the price of
BLBD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-32%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$7.79
This translates to price declining to:
$1.72
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BLBD is a 154.58% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 118.10% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -9.84% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BLBD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.12
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.77
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.089
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.25
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.85
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.697
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.541
Beta is -27.51% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.758
Beta is -36.45% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
30.97%
Sustainable growth rate is 15.73% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.124
Alpha is -144.97% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -789% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BLBD
Equity cost of capital:
0.108
Equity cost of capital is -28.89% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.42%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-0.25%
After-tax cost of debt:
-0.20%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-0.20%
WACC is -52.71% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$22.66
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.43
Annual revenue growth rate is 147.52% above the industry average
EPS:
-$0.45
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 151.68% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$4.50
EBITDA per share
-$0.24
Valuation Analysis Today of
BLBD
P/E Ratio:
30.32
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
30.76
P/E ratio is -1.41% lower than main peers & is -26.90% lower than the industry
-
BLBD is -161.34% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.51
Price to sales ratio is -98.67% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.43
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-109.57%
Net income growth rate is -102.29% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
374.86%
Net debt to equity ratio:
409.59%
Debt to assets ratio:
39.60%
Net debt to assets ratio:
43.27%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -26.79% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
18.9
Interest coverage ratio is -175.44% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
609.55%
Annual debt growth is 1039% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 21.72%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.428
Statistical significance of correlation:
BLBD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.49
Stock price is -12.70% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.49
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.015
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.035
Kurtosis
6.367
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.507
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BLBD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
34%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-1.81%
Operating profit margin is -100.25% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
34%
Effective Tax Rate:
7.48%
Effective tax rate is 14.00% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-48.81%
Return on equity (ROE) is -435.56% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-5.16%
Return on assets (ROA) is -442.95% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
1.46
Current ratio is -69.01% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-12.5
Cash conversion cycle is -105.83% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-8.91%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
405.4K
Each employee generates -22% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 4.2K
Each employee generates -98% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 10.5K
Each employee generates -95% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 18.5K
Each employee generates -35% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
111.6K
Each employee generates -35% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BLBD
GAN LIMITED (XNAS:GAN)
Winmark Corporation (XNAS:WINA)
CARPARTS.COM, INC. (XNAS:PRTS)
RCI HOSPITALITY HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:RICK)
SPORTSMAN'S WAREHOUSE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:SPWH)
EL POLLO LOCO HOLDINGS, INC (XNAS:LOCO)
LANDS' END, INC. (XNAS:LE)
CARLOTZ, INC. (XNAS:LOTZ)
OneWater Marine Inc (XNAS:ONEW)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
725.75M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
667.21M
58.53M
-
-
71.66M
-
110.59B
110.66B
-
- 399.00K
13.31M
- 7543.00K
- 13125.00K
- 18775.00K
- 22483.00K
- 1682.00K
- 18775.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.29M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1704.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.67M
Change in Working Capital :
- 35157.00K
Accounts Receivables:
3.83M
Other Working Capital:
51.88M
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.91M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 33077.00K
Investments in PP&E:
469.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
1/1/22
2022
Q1
4.07M
-
4.07M
6.14M
141.95M
12.04M
164.21M
109.79M
18.83M
48.94M
-
6.12M
16.17M
199.84M
-
364.05M
61.41M
17.43M
-
7.49M
25.99M
112.33M
144.18M
- 58584.00K
100.94M
-
213.26M
3.00K
- 37835.00K
- 44573.0K
120.87M
January 1, 2022 at 7:00:00 AM
111.33B
38.46M
251.72M
-
161.61M
157.5M
-
- 2039.00K
- 1570.00K
- 40000.00K
178.00K
- 1484.00K
-
68.31M
27.01M
-
- 7640.00K
4.07M
11.71M
- 33077.00K
469.00K
- 33077.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BLBD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$12.37
$4.19
$4.51
$4.85
$5.21