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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Blucora, Inc. (XNAS:BCOR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BCOR
Name:
BLUCORA, INC. (XNAS:BCOR)
Sector:
42.61M
Industry:
Asset Management
CEO:
Mr. Christopher Walters
Total Employees:
1,100
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -59.25% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BLUCORA, INC.(BCOR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ASSET MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
19.99
One Month Price Target:
$20.13
Six Month Price Target :
$20.85
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$21.71
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$19.88
Price Upper limit ($) :
$20.11
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$18.65
This week:
$16.98
This month :
$13.98
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
952.06M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
47.75M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.73%
-21.03%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$26.23
$23.38
$13.75
$16.60
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$22.45
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$21.84
$17.52
$18.14
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BCOR
Sharpe Ratio:
0.60%
Comparison:
BCOR, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -24.77% lower than the industry
& is -73.46% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BCOR
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.14%
Monthly returns:
0.57%
Yearly returns:
9.18%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -24.89% below industry average
Classification:
BCOR, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.72
Statistical test of Returns:
BCOR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.29%
Weekly Volatility:
7.35%
Monthly Volatility:
14.70%
Yearly Volatility:
50.94%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.68%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -79.21% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.72%
Weekly VaR:
-15.04%
Monthly VaR:
-30.07%
How Much Can the price of
BCOR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$14.74
This translates to price declining to:
$3.00
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BCOR is a 112.24% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 81.82% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 26.53% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BCOR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.28
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.995
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.407
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.262
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.937
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.033
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.159
Beta is 704.28% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.694
Beta is -24.62% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.050
Alpha is -10.27% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -318% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BCOR
Equity cost of capital:
0.119
Equity cost of capital is -19.37% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.44%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.05%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.99%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.99%
WACC is 2.81% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$19.15
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.74
Annual revenue growth rate is -50.93% below industry average
EPS:
$0.28
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-45.71%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -264.59% lower than the Asset Management industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.08
-
-
Debt per share
$12.27
EBITDA per share
$1.69
Valuation Analysis Today of
BCOR
P/E Ratio:
44.46
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
11.13
P/E ratio is 299.59% higher than main peers & is 175.32% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $4.52
BCOR is 342.12% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.04
Price to sales ratio is -84.76% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.74
Price to free cash flow: 244.41
Price to free cash flow ratio is 70.24% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-84.87%
Net income growth rate is -158.38% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
167.91%
Net debt to equity ratio:
128.51%
Debt to assets ratio:
54.04%
Net debt to assets ratio:
41.36%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 3.40% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.69
Interest coverage ratio is -95.47% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.08%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.607
Statistical significance of correlation:
BCOR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.576
Stock price is 5.41% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.576
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.055
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.104
Kurtosis
7.99
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.694
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BCOR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
171%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
4.20%
Operating profit margin is -91.06% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
171%
Effective Tax Rate:
-130.35%
Effective tax rate is -633.76% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
4.22%
Return on equity (ROE) is -83.30% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.36%
Return on assets (ROA) is -76.71% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.2x
Current Ratio:
1.86
Current ratio is -51.48% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
2.8
Cash conversion cycle is -99.68% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
42.26%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
831.2K
Each employee generates -40% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
73.3K
Each employee generates -110% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
13.4K
Each employee generates -101% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
38.7K
Each employee generates -132% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
789.6K
Each employee generates -132% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BCOR
FCACU
ALTEROLA BIOTECH INC. (OTCM:ABTI)
THE FIRST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:FBMS)
CROSSFIRST BANKSHARES, INC. (XNAS:CFB)
HARBORONE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:HONE)
COMMUNITY TRUST BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:CTBI)
FIRST MID BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:FMBH)
GREAT SOUTHERN BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:GSBC)
MIDCAP FINANCIAL INVESTMENT CORPORATION (XNAS:MFIC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
914.37M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
494.95M
419.42M
32.08M
103.06M
283.23M
180.17M
39.31M
354.63M
19.00K
29.95M
44.31M
80.65M
38.43M
14.73M
6.40M
- 8336.00K
14.73M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.31M
Differed Income Tax :
- 644.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
6.23M
Change in Working Capital :
- 8512.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 2464.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 4953.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.35M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
47.34M
Investments in PP&E:
- 4731.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
144.22M
-
144.22M
49.51M
-
21.70M
215.43M
93.80M
454.82M
296.89M
-
-
23.02M
868.53M
-
1.08B
23.88M
6.76M
3.70M
8.46M
76.64M
115.74M
585.80M
8.98M
619.35M
-
735.09M
5.00K
- 1215169.00K
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
849.58M
348.87M
1.08B
-
592.56M
448.3M
-
- 751.00K
- 5482.00K
- 453.00K
-
- 30537.00K
-
- 1473.00K
- 32463.00K
-
9.40M
144.22M
134.82M
47.34M
- 4731.00K
42.61M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BCOR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$15.68
$17.03
$18.49
$20.07
$21.80