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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (XNAS:BLMN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BLMN
Name:
BLOOMIN' BRANDS, INC. (XNAS:BLMN)
Sector:
106.96M
Industry:
Restaurants
CEO:
Mr. David Deno
Total Employees:
82,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 260.60% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BLOOMIN' BRANDS, INC.(BLMN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RESTAURANTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
20.05
One Month Price Target:
$20.26
Six Month Price Target :
$21.31
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$22.56
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$19.92
Price Upper limit ($) :
$20.22
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$18.22
This week:
$15.97
This month :
$11.88
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.72B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
89.30M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
29.64%
-30.58%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.52
$24.63
$11.58
$15.47
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$23.36
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$22.53
$16.72
$17.57
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BLMN
Sharpe Ratio:
1.78%
Comparison:
BLMN, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 7.83% higher than the industry
& is -22.03% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BLMN
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.44%
Monthly returns:
1.77%
Yearly returns:
16.01%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 32.51% above industry average
Classification:
BLMN, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.49
Statistical test of Returns:
BLMN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.48%
Weekly Volatility:
10.01%
Monthly Volatility:
20.02%
Yearly Volatility:
69.36%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.59%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -86.76% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.11%
Weekly VaR:
-20.36%
Monthly VaR:
-40.73%
How Much Can the price of
BLMN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-35%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$13.03
This translates to price declining to:
$3.01
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BLMN is a 187.46% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 146.26% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 28.21% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BLMN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.86
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.177
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.665
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.283
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.304
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.447
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.526
Beta is 22.08% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.354
Beta is 37.64% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
161.27%
Sustainable growth rate is 430.97% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.053
Alpha is 47.78% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 338% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BLMN
Equity cost of capital:
0.159
Equity cost of capital is 28.10% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.41%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.99%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.36%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.36%
WACC is 94.44% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$47.88
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.11
Annual revenue growth rate is -73.78% below industry average
EPS:
$2.10
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
10.81%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 215.00% higher than the Restaurants industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.87
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 933.86% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$21.10
EBITDA per share
$5.36
Valuation Analysis Today of
BLMN
P/E Ratio:
31.55
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
16.62
P/E ratio is 89.79% higher than main peers & is 33.35% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $49.69
BLMN is -59.65% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.42
Price to sales ratio is -87.16% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.11
Price to free cash flow: 7.00
Price to free cash flow ratio is -83.52% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
111.79%
Net income growth rate is -35.79% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.65%
Dividend yeild: 2.89%
Previous Dividend: $0.14
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.14
Previous Dividend: $0.58
Expected next dividend best case: $0.23
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.05
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.15
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 23.33%
Expected next dividend payment date: 23/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 18/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 25/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/11/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 19/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-10--$0.14
2020-02-27--$0.20
--$0.00
2022-03-01--$0.14
2019-11-15--$0.10
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is -1124.88% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
646.15%
Net debt to equity ratio:
616.46%
Debt to assets ratio:
58.81%
Net debt to assets ratio:
56.11%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -62.69% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.45
Interest coverage ratio is -52.20% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-12.50%
Annual debt growth is -134% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 7.96%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.612
Statistical significance of correlation:
BLMN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.517
Stock price is 18.41% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.517
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.024
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.061
Kurtosis
8.666
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.122
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BLMN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
167%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
7.61%
Operating profit margin is -19.09% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
167%
Effective Tax Rate:
13.40%
Effective tax rate is -22.83% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
76.21%
Return on equity (ROE) is 23711.46% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.94%
Return on assets (ROA) is -51.14% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.4x
Current Ratio:
0.29
Current ratio is -74.19% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-30.6
Cash conversion cycle is -192.25% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.18%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
52.1K
Each employee generates -54% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
5.8K
Each employee generates -77% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
2.7K
Each employee generates -81% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.3K
Each employee generates -46% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
35.8K
Each employee generates -46% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BLMN
JACK IN THE BOX INC. (XNAS:JACK)
DAVE & BUSTER'S ENTERTAINMENT, INC. (XNAS:PLAY)
MONRO, INC. (XNAS:MNRO)
PROTERRA INC (XNAS:PTRA)
ContextLogic Inc (XNAS:WISH)
THE CHEESECAKE FACTORY INCORPORATED (XNAS:CAKE)
REE AUTOMOTIVE LTD (XNAS:REE)
ALLBIRDS, INC. (XNAS:BIRD)
SLEEP NUMBER CORPORATION (XNAS:SNBR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�33%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
4.28B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.49B
1.79B
-
247.04M
247.04M
-
1.20B
1.45B
-
56.62M
163.94M
478.48M
325.22M
222.20M
266.53M
35.72M
222.20M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
41.78M
Differed Income Tax :
3.21M
Stock Based Compensation :
4.84M
Change in Working Capital :
- 18080.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
37.69M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
147.14M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
97.80M
-
97.80M
45.97M
68.80M
58.72M
271.29M
1.97B
273.47M
453.05M
-
162.74M
77.17M
2.93B
-
3.20B
172.71M
11.22M
-
325.30M
426.42M
935.65M
1.88B
90.50M
1.97B
-
2.91B
892.00K
- 634356.00K
- 190431.0K
1.12B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.94B
291.56M
3.20B
-
1.90B
1.8B
-
- 39150.00K
- 39150.00K
- 162863.00K
-
- 10402.00K
- 12559.00K
84.71M
- 101111.00K
1.97M
8.84M
97.90M
89.06M
147.14M
- 40180.00K
106.96M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BLMN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$22.67
$47.40
$53.34
$60.01
$67.53