_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Blackstone Inc (XNYS:BX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BX
Name:
Blackstone Inc (XNYS:BX)
Sector:
2.28B
Industry:
Asset Management
CEO:
Mr. Stephen Schwarzman
Total Employees:
3,795
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -284.19% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BLACKSTONE INC(BX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ASSET MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
93.82
One Month Price Target:
$94.58
Six Month Price Target :
$98.39
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$102.96
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$93.48
Price Upper limit ($) :
$94.38
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$88.46
This week:
$81.84
This month :
$69.87
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
113.80B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
1.21B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.63%
-15.4%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$118.65
$107.11
$68.99
$80.53
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$103.36
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$100.89
$84.25
$86.75
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BX
Sharpe Ratio:
3.86%
Comparison:
BX, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 380.29% higher than the industry
& ratio is 69.43% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BX
Daily returns:
0.12%
Weekly returns:
0.59%
Monthly returns:
2.37%
Yearly returns:
9.18%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 209.48% above industry average
Classification:
BX, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.75
Statistical test of Returns:
BX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.84%
Weekly Volatility:
6.34%
Monthly Volatility:
12.69%
Yearly Volatility:
43.95%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.83%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -70.67% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.71%
Weekly VaR:
-12.76%
Monthly VaR:
-25.53%
How Much Can the price of
BX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-88.43%
This translates to price declining to:
$73.92
This translates to price declining to:
$10.85
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BX is a 80.18% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 54.36% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 9.18% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.45
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.012
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.431
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.843
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.175
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.962
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.946
Beta is 53.29% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.694
Beta is -14.41% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
35.09%
Sustainable growth rate is 24.48% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.153
Alpha is -375.19% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 976% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BX
Equity cost of capital:
0.131
Equity cost of capital is -11.33% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.60%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.40%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.68%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.68%
WACC is -73.01% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$13.55
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-16.54
Annual revenue growth rate is 11.08% above the industry average
EPS:
$7.34
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
38.96%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 40.27% higher than the Asset Management industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.92
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -573.19% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$5.34
EBITDA per share
$5.99
Valuation Analysis Today of
BX
P/E Ratio:
17.11
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.16
P/E ratio is 20.87% higher than main peers & is 5.96% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $118.52
BX is -20.84% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
6.92
Price to sales ratio is 1.07% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-16.54
Price to free cash flow: 13.55
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
255.02%
Net income growth rate is 75.42% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 23.56%
Dividend yeild: 4.86%
Previous Dividend: $1.32
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.32
Previous Dividend: $4.56
Expected next dividend best case: $1.63
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.01
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.79
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 15.76%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/01/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 20/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 05/09/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/02/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 21/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-29--$1.32
2021-10-29--$1.09
2021-04-30--$0.82
2022-02-04--$1.45
2021-07-30--$0.70
2021-02-05--$0.96
Dividend growth rate is 185.43% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
82.54%
Net debt to equity ratio:
46.05%
Debt to assets ratio:
106.69%
Net debt to assets ratio:
59.52%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 104.13% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
33.04
Interest coverage ratio is -44.44% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-100.00%
Annual debt growth is 1346% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.786
Statistical significance of correlation:
BX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.576
Stock price is 36.38% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.576
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.031
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.052
Kurtosis
5.553
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.221
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
18.80%
Operating profit margin is -60.03% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
12.67%
Effective tax rate is -48.13% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
67.90%
Return on equity (ROE) is 168.60% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
87.77%
Return on assets (ROA) is 1404.10% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
-14.9x
Current Ratio:
4.57
Current ratio is 19.26% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
4.3M
Each employee generates 212% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
1.9M
Each employee generates -352% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
1.4M
Each employee generates -213% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
599.7K
Each employee generates -600% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
587.8K
Each employee generates -600% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BX
MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC. (XNYS:MMC)
U.S. BANCORP (XNYS:USB)
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (XNYS:MUFG)
Truist Financial Corporation (XNYS:TFC)
THE BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA (XNYS:BNS)
BAM
U.S. BANCORP (XNYS:USB)
ICICI BANK LIMITED (XNYS:IBN)
INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE, INC. (XNYS:ICE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�25%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
16.43B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
983.58M
983.58M
-
2.28B
3.26B
183.72M
220.03M
56.09M
7.27B
-
5.33B
13.17B
1.67B
5.33B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
18.78M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
7.51M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
3.00B
Other Non-Cash Items:
522.52M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
2.30B
Investments in PP&E:
- 20741.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/21
2022
Q1
2.86B
-
2.86B
3.99B
-
- 3015318.00K
3.84B
977.06M
1.89B
340.48M
18.01B
1.40B
- 20390512.00K
2.23B
-
6.07B
838.93M
-
-
-
-
838.93M
6.47B
-
6.47B
18.59B
12.95B
7.00K
1.41B
- 11454.0K
6.45B
March 31, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
-
7.84B
20.79B
-
6.47B
3.6B
-
-
- 20741.00K
-
-
- 18199.00K
- 1255128.00K
- 89119.00K
- 1362446.00K
- 6246.00K
907.25M
2.97B
2.06B
2.30B
- 20741.00K
2.28B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$103.47
$158.11
$173.52
$190.43
$208.99