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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Blackrock Tcp Capital Corp. (XNAS:TCPC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TCPC
Name:
BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (XNAS:TCPC)
Sector:
26.68M
Industry:
Asset Management
CEO:
Mr. Howard Levkowitz
Total Employees:
-
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BLACKROCK TCP CAPITAL CORP.(TCPC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ASSET MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
13.32
One Month Price Target:
$13.42
Six Month Price Target :
$13.95
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$14.57
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$13.25
Price Upper limit ($) :
$13.41
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$12.36
This week:
$11.18
This month :
$9.04
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
757.91M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
57.77M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
53.18%
-37.32%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$17.76
$15.73
$8.88
$10.91
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$15.06
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$14.63
$11.57
$12.01
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TCPC
Sharpe Ratio:
1.19%
Comparison:
TCPC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 48.33% higher than the industry
& is -47.67% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TCPC
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.25%
Monthly returns:
1.02%
Yearly returns:
9.18%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 32.85% above industry average
Classification:
TCPC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.86
Statistical test of Returns:
TCPC has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.52%
Weekly Volatility:
7.87%
Monthly Volatility:
15.74%
Yearly Volatility:
54.53%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.74%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -78.88% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.18%
Weekly VaR:
-16.05%
Monthly VaR:
-32.10%
How Much Can the price of
TCPC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$9.62
This translates to price declining to:
$2.00
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TCPC is a 126.58% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 94.11% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 35.46% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TCPC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.40
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.821
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.161
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.63
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.857
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.815
Beta is 71.78% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.694
Beta is -17.36% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.04%
Sustainable growth rate is -64.39% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.005
Alpha is -90.30% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -34% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TCPC
Equity cost of capital:
0.127
Equity cost of capital is -13.66% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.40%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.69%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.69%
WACC is -2.15% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.15
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.93
Annual revenue growth rate is -118.95% below industry average
EPS:
$1.92
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
64.62%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 132.68% higher than the Asset Management industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.09
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -16.99%
Equity growth rate per share is -180.39% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$17.79
EBITDA per share
$1.44
Valuation Analysis Today of
TCPC
P/E Ratio:
13.79
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.77
P/E ratio is 28.00% higher than main peers & is -14.60% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $31.00
TCPC is -57.04% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $23.18
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $8.19
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
6.19
Price to sales ratio is -9.70% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.93
Price to free cash flow: 12.23
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
198.38%
Net income growth rate is 36.46% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 15.65%
Dividend yeild: 9.01%
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.30
Previous Dividend: $1.20
Expected next dividend best case: $0.32
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.28
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.32
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -1.67%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 14/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-15--$0.30
2021-12-16--$0.30
2021-06-15--$0.30
2022-03-16--$0.30
2021-09-15--$0.30
2021-03-16--$0.30
Dividend growth rate is -130.25% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
124.68%
Net debt to equity ratio:
119.38%
Debt to assets ratio:
55.00%
Net debt to assets ratio:
52.66%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 5.23% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.37
Interest coverage ratio is -96.01% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 22.55%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.376
Statistical significance of correlation:
TCPC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.576
Stock price is -34.71% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.576
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.011
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.023
Kurtosis
99.485
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
2.641
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TCPC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
51.35%
Operating profit margin is 9.16% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.43%
Return on equity (ROE) is -46.86% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.93%
Return on assets (ROA) is 1.56% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.2x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TCPC
THE FIRST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:FBMS)
ALLEGIANCE BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:ABTX)
UNITED FIRE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:UFCS)
Calamos Dyn Cv and Inc (XNAS:CCD)
COMMUNITY TRUST BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:CTBI)
Univest Financial Corporation (XNAS:UVSP)
HORIZON BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:HBNC)
NICOLET BANKSHARES, INC. (XNYS:NIC)
NORTHFIELD BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:NFBK)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�17%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
124.37M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
39.82M
-
8.34M
8.34M
-
5.27M
13.61M
153.66M
34.95M
- 62741.93K
82.97M
-
110.75M
110.75M
-
110.75M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 32037.34K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
46.27M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
26.68M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
43.65M
-
43.65M
21.69M
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.80B
-
-
-
1.87B
1.87B
3.21M
-
-
-
-
-
1.03B
-
1.03B
2.07B
1.04B
57.77K
- 138695.75K
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
824.46M
1.87B
-
1.03B
984.3M
-
-
-
- 299268.84K
-
-
- 17330.18K
314.02M
- 2581.27K
-
24.10M
43.65M
19.55M
26.68M
-
26.68M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TCPC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$14.64
$31.20
$34.13
$37.35
$40.86