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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Blackrock Munivest (XNYS:MVF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MVF
Name:
BlackRock MuniVest (XNYS:MVF)
Sector:
18.08M
Industry:
Asset Management
CEO:
Mr. John Perlowski
Total Employees:
-
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BLACKROCK MUNIVEST(MVF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ASSET MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
7.29
One Month Price Target:
$7.3
Six Month Price Target :
$7.36
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$7.43
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$7.27
Price Upper limit ($) :
$7.3
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$7.1
This week:
$6.87
This month :
$6.45
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
519.01M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
-
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
7.91%
-16.05%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.16
$7.77
$6.42
$6.81
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$7.64
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$7.56
$6.94
$7.02
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MVF
Sharpe Ratio:
-2.70%
Comparison:
MVF, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -436.14% lower than the industry
& is -218.58% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MVF
Daily returns:
-0.02%
Weekly returns:
-0.12%
Monthly returns:
-0.49%
Yearly returns:
9.18%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -164.24% below industry average
Classification:
MVF, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.33
Statistical test of Returns:
MVF has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.24%
Weekly Volatility:
2.77%
Monthly Volatility:
5.53%
Yearly Volatility:
19.16%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.74%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -39.87% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-2.56%
Weekly VaR:
-5.73%
Monthly VaR:
-11.47%
How Much Can the price of
MVF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-10%
Worst case (decline):
-39.73%
This translates to price declining to:
$6.53
This translates to price declining to:
$4.39
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MVF is -19.05% less risky an investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -30.65% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -52.41% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MVF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.29
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.513
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.726
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.214
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.277
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.528
Beta is -81.04% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.694
Beta is -82.90% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.63%
Sustainable growth rate is -55.20% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.110
Alpha is 97.99% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -702% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MVF
Equity cost of capital:
0.051
Equity cost of capital is -65.20% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.86
Annual revenue growth rate is 418.82% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.06
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-2.17%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -107.83% lower than the Asset Management industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.40
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -19.28%
Equity growth rate per share is -191.24% lower than the industry
Debt per share
-
EBITDA per share
-
Valuation Analysis Today of
MVF
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
7.84
-
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $0.97
MVF is 652.42% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $16.57
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2.61
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
6.65
Price to sales ratio is -2.94% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.86
Price to free cash flow: 5.22
Price to free cash flow ratio is -42.47% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
630.19%
Net income growth rate is 333.48% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 24.84%
Dividend yeild: 1.84%
Previous Dividend: $0.03
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.03
Previous Dividend: $0.13
Expected next dividend best case: $0.03
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.03
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.03
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.03
2022-04-13--$0.03
2022-02-14--$0.03
2022-05-13--$0.03
2022-03-14--$0.03
2022-01-13--$0.03
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
55.06%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-
Debt to assets ratio:
35.51%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-
Debt-to-asset ratio is -32.06% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.24
Interest coverage ratio is -94.56% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-100.00%
Annual debt growth is 1346% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in previous year: 100.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.366
Statistical significance of correlation:
MVF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.576
Stock price is -36.39% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.576
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.002
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.002
Kurtosis
51.838
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-2.884
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MVF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
277%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
68.30%
Operating profit margin is 45.21% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
277%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.05%
Return on equity (ROE) is -36.51% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.35%
Return on assets (ROA) is 77.39% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-86.3
Cash conversion cycle is -109.93% below industry average
-
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MVF
GAMCO INVESTORS, INC. (XNYS:GBL)
Customers Bancorp, Inc. (XNYS:CUBI)
abrdn China Investment Company Limited (XLON:ACIC)
VY GLOBAL GROWTH (XNYS:VYGG)
Nuveen NJ Qual Muni Inc (XNYS:NXJ)
Nuveen Taxable Muni Inc (XNYS:NBB)
Western Asset Hi Inc II (XNYS:HIX)
BlackRock MuniHds CA Qly (XNYS:MUC)
Blackstone Strat Cr (XNYS:BGB)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
2/29/20
Revenue:
84.92M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
25.99M
58.93M
-
862.09K
928.62K
-
-
928.62K
-
46.93M
-
151.86M
58.00M
104.93M
104.93M
-
104.93M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
297.58K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 39289.11K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
18.08M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
8/31/21
2021
FY
-
-
-
10.30M
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.00B
-
-
-
1.01B
1.01B
9.29M
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
359.94M
359.94M
577.20M
76.56M
-
-
August 31, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
26.92M
653.75M
1.01B
-
-
-
-
-
-
- 425.00K
-
-
- 26064.22K
8.76M
- 17725.89K
-
- 17725.89K
352.00K
-
18.08M
-
18.08M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MVF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$5.22
$5.33
$5.43
$5.53
$5.64