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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Blackrock Muni Inc Ii (XNYS:BLE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BLE
Name:
BlackRock Muni Inc II (XNYS:BLE)
Sector:
34.97M
Industry:
Asset Management
CEO:
Mr. John Perlowski
Total Employees:
-
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BLACKROCK MUNI INC II(BLE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ASSET MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
10.92
One Month Price Target:
$10.94
Six Month Price Target :
$11.07
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$11.22
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$10.89
Price Upper limit ($) :
$10.94
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$10.6
This week:
$10.2
This month :
$9.48
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
590.06M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
-
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
9.9%
-17.%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.42
$11.75
$9.42
$10.09
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$11.53
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$11.38
$10.31
$10.46
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BLE
Sharpe Ratio:
-3.26%
Comparison:
BLE, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -505.60% lower than the industry
& is -243.08% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BLE
Daily returns:
-0.04%
Weekly returns:
-0.19%
Monthly returns:
-0.75%
Yearly returns:
9.18%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -197.70% below industry average
Classification:
BLE, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.1
Statistical test of Returns:
BLE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.42%
Weekly Volatility:
3.17%
Monthly Volatility:
6.34%
Yearly Volatility:
21.96%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.69%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -51.00% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-2.95%
Weekly VaR:
-6.59%
Monthly VaR:
-13.19%
How Much Can the price of
BLE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-12%
Worst case (decline):
-45.68%
This translates to price declining to:
$9.60
This translates to price declining to:
$5.93
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BLE is -6.93% less risky an investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -20.26% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -45.45% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BLE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.41
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.453
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.64
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.312
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.413
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.202
Beta is -66.17% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.694
Beta is -76.00% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.16%
Sustainable growth rate is -71.04% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.149
Alpha is 167.50% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -949% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BLE
Equity cost of capital:
0.059
Equity cost of capital is -59.78% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.44
Annual revenue growth rate is 601.44% above the industry average
EPS:
-$0.15
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-16.60%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -159.76% lower than the Asset Management industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.42
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 20.22%
Equity growth rate per share is -4.34% lower than the industry
Debt per share
-
EBITDA per share
-
Valuation Analysis Today of
BLE
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
31.54
-
-
BLE is -550.84% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $14.62
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2.77
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
6.35
Price to sales ratio is -7.30% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.44
Price to free cash flow: 7.69
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
860.64%
Net income growth rate is 492.00% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 44.07%
Dividend yeild: 1.90%
Previous Dividend: $0.05
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.05
Previous Dividend: $0.21
Expected next dividend best case: $0.06
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.05
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.06
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -1.46%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.05
2022-04-13--$0.05
2022-02-14--$0.06
2022-05-13--$0.05
2022-03-14--$0.05
2022-01-13--$0.06
Dividend growth rate is -126.44% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
64.16%
Net debt to equity ratio:
0.00%
Debt to assets ratio:
39.09%
Net debt to assets ratio:
0.00%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -25.22% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.78
Interest coverage ratio is -93.65% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-100.00%
Annual debt growth is 1346% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in previous year: 100.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.449
Statistical significance of correlation:
BLE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.576
Stock price is -22.11% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.576
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.014
Kurtosis
42.934
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-2.366
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BLE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
272%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
66.92%
Operating profit margin is 42.28% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
272%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.16%
Return on equity (ROE) is -71.66% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.36%
Return on assets (ROA) is -25.21% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-205.7
Cash conversion cycle is -123.68% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BLE
Cohen & Steers Sel P&Inc (XNYS:PSF)
Nuveen Global High Inc (XNYS:JGH)
ALUS
Ares Dynamic Crdt Alloc (XNYS:ARDC)
D-WAVE QUANTUM INC. (XNYS:QBTS)
SOAC
Danone SA (XETR:BSN)
PIMCO CA Muni Income (XNYS:PCQ)
Western Asset Hi Yld D O (XNYS:HYI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
2/29/20
Revenue:
50.60M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
16.20M
34.40M
-
428.22K
538.64K
-
-
538.64K
-
19.04M
-
71.95M
33.87M
52.91M
52.91M
-
52.91M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
207.53K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 2050.86K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
34.97M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
8/31/21
2021
FY
2.02K
-
2.02K
15.57M
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.20B
-
-
-
1.21B
1.21B
14.11M
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
473.86M
473.86M
666.32M
72.20M
-
-
August 31, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
16.74M
738.51M
1.21B
-
-
- 2.0K
-
-
-
- 326.46K
-
- 0.38K
- 23316.43K
- 10045.88K
- 33689.14K
-
- 33689.14K
1.28M
-
34.97M
-
34.97M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BLE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$9.53
$9.79
$10.06
$10.33
$10.62