Blackrock, Inc. (XNYS:BLK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today

Primary Facts

BLK

Name:

BLACKROCK, INC. (XNYS:BLK)

Sector:

- 569000.00K

Industry:

Asset Management

CEO:

Mr. Laurence Fink

Total Employees:

18,900

Our Technological Advancement Rating

Our Rating:

D

Technological advancement compared to industry is -106.49% lower

ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BLACKROCK, INC.(BLK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ASSET MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022

Primary Targets/Price Insights

Previous Close ($) :

653.18

One Month Price Target:

$657.72

Six Month Price Target :

$680.39

Likely Price in One Year's Time:

Ticker:

$707.61

Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
 

$651.09

Price Upper limit ($) :

$656.16

Price Lower limit ($) :

Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)

Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:

Today:

$622.93

                                                               This week:

$585.53

                                                        This month :

$517.89

Other Primary facts

Market Cap:

99.21B

Market Cap Classification:

Large Cap

Number of Shares

IPO Date:

150.77M

Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
 

Highest Daily Appreciation:

13.52%

-13.65%

Worst Daily Decline:

Our Options Trading Entry Points

Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time

Low risk (<2%) entry points

Buy Call:

Sell Call:

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$793.50

$728.71

$512.86

$577.65

Medium risk (<10%) entry points

Buy Call

Sell Call

$707.62

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$693.79

$598.56

$612.57

These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.

Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of

BLK

Sharpe Ratio:

2.58%

Comparison:

BLK, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns

Sharpe ratio is 221.34% higher than the industry

& ratio is 13.36% higher than the market/S&P 500 average

Average Returns/Yield of

BLK

Daily returns:

0.07%

Weekly returns:

0.34%

Monthly returns:

1.36%

Yearly returns:

9.18%

Comparison of returns:

Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 77.65% above industry average

Classification:

BLK, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns

Results of T-Test of Returns:

0.87

Statistical test of Returns:

BLK has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market

SHARPE ratio explained.png

Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)

Daily Volatility:

2.29%

Weekly Volatility:

5.12%

Monthly Volatility:

10.23%

Yearly Volatility:

35.45%

Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation) 

Average Volatility of this Week:

0.38%

Volatility in last five trading days has been -83.46% below long-term volatility

Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)

Daily VaR:

-4.63%

Weekly VaR:

-10.36%

Monthly VaR:

-20.71%

How Much Can the price of

BLK

Decline in a Recession?

Likely price decline in a recession: 

Base case (decline):

-18%

Worst case (decline):

-71.75%

This translates to price declining to:

$538.63

This translates to price declining to:

$184.51

Severe Crash Probability

Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)

What is Value at Risk (VaR)?

VaR explained figure

Risk Fundamentals

BLK is a 46.19% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 25.24% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)

Risk (measured by volatility) is -11.94% below industry average

Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks

Beta Examination of

BLK

Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.24

Expected beta in 1 year's time:

0.826

Expected beta in 3 year's time:

1.168

Unlevered (debt free) Beta:

1.042

Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):

0.954

Beta in relation to all global stocks::

0.867

Beta Comparison & Analysis

Beta of competitors/peers::

0.901

Beta is 37.59% higher than peers

Average Industry Beta: 

1.694

Beta is -26.81% below industry average

Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis

Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:

9.46%

Sustainable growth rate is -66.45% below industry average

Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis 

Alpha provided:

0.047

Alpha is -183.79% below industry average alpha yield

Alpha is 297% higher than market/& is unsustainably high

Analysis of Cost of Capital of

BLK

Equity cost of capital:

0.116

Equity cost of capital is -21.09% below industry mean WACC

Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:  

9.79%

Before-tax cost of debt:

2.20%

After-tax cost of debt:

1.74%

Overall debt rating:

Highest AAA investment grade

Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):

1.74%

WACC is 49.31% above industry mean WACC

Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis

Revenue per share:

$130.50

Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):

2.53

Annual revenue growth rate is -62.76% below industry average

EPS:

$39.80

Expected Annual growth rate of  EPS (3Y):

10.03%

Expected future EPS growth rate is -63.88% lower than the Asset Management industry

Free cash flow (FCF) per share:

$30.30

Balance sheet equity growth per share: 35.16%

Equity growth rate per share is 66.40% higher than the industry

Debt per share

$61.50

EBITDA per share

$57.53

Valuation Analysis Today of

BLK

P/E Ratio:

17.21

P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:

12.4

P/E ratio is 38.79% higher than main peers & is 6.61% higher than the industry

Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $642.68

BLK is 1.63% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio

Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $257.49

Present value of the expected future dividends only: $251.88

P/S (Price to Sales ratio):

5.01

Price to sales ratio is -26.94% below the industry mean

P/B (Price to book value ratio):

2.53

Price to free cash flow: 21.56

-

Net income growth rate (3Y):

43.16%

Net income growth rate is -70.31% lower than the industry average net income growth rate

Dividend Analysis

Dividend payout rate: 12.81%

Dividend yeild: 2.76%

Previous Dividend: $4.88

Previous adjusted dividend: $4.88

Previous Dividend: $18.02

Expected next dividend best case: $5.31

Expected next dividend worst case: $4.45

Average dividend payment (long-term): $4.01

Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 4.19%

Expected next dividend payment date: 21/09/2022

Expected next dividend record date: 09/05/2022

-

Previous dividend payment date: 23/06/2022

Previous dividend record date: 06/06/2022

-

Dividend History:

2022-06-03--$4.88

2021-12-06--$4.13

2021-06-03--$4.13

2022-03-04--$4.88

2021-09-03--$4.13

2021-03-04--$4.13

Dividend growth rate is -24.11% lower than the industry average

In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis

Debt to equity ratio:

24.73%

Net debt to equity ratio:

5.36%

Debt to assets ratio:

6.47%

Net debt to assets ratio:

1.40%

Debt-to-asset ratio is -87.62% below industry average

Ability to repay debt:

Interest coverage ratio:

42.51

Interest coverage ratio is -28.51% less than industry average

Looking forward:

Debt growth rate:

-100.00%

Annual debt growth is 1346% higher than industry average debt growth rate

Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%

Analysis of Key Statistics  

Correlation of price movement with the market:

0.833

Statistical significance of correlation:

BLK has a statistically significant correlation with the market

Average Correlation of  the industry with the market:

0.576

Stock price is 44.68% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation

R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market): 

0.576

Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):

-0.019

Covariance  of price movement with the market:

-0.026

Kurtosis 

6.93

Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns

Skewness of returns:

-0.02

Returns are, approximately, symmetrical

Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of

BLK

Gross Profit Margin Ratio:

202%

Operating Profit Margin Ratio:

38.98%

Operating profit margin is -17.13% lower than the industry

Net Profit Margin Ratio:

202%

Effective Tax Rate:

23.31%

Effective tax rate is -4.57% lower than the industry

Dupont Method

Net Profit Margin

Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):

×

ROA

=

×

16.37%

Return on equity (ROE) is -35.23% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage

Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):

4.28%

Return on assets (ROA) is -26.61% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage:

1.1x

Current Ratio:

12.51

Current ratio is 226.00% above industry average

Cash Conversion Cycle (days):

71.4

Cash conversion cycle is -91.78% below industry average

The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.6 years

Stock based compensation to net income ratio:

3.27%