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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Blackline, Inc (XNAS:BL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BL
Name:
BLACKLINE, INC (XNAS:BL)
Sector:
- 6009.00K
Industry:
Software�Infrastructure
CEO:
Ms. Therese Tucker
Total Employees:
1,888
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 158.76% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BLACKLINE, INC(BL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
65.67
One Month Price Target:
$65.96
Six Month Price Target :
$67.41
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$69.15
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$65.39
Price Upper limit ($) :
$66.06
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$61.64
This week:
$56.66
This month :
$47.65
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.94B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
59.63M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.86%
-19.53%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$84.36
$75.74
$46.98
$55.60
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$72.93
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$71.09
$58.38
$60.25
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BL
Sharpe Ratio:
2.49%
Comparison:
BL, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 52.25% higher than the industry
& ratio is 9.21% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BL
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.42%
Monthly returns:
1.68%
Yearly returns:
14.38%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 40.54% above industry average
Classification:
BL, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.81
Statistical test of Returns:
BL has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.03%
Weekly Volatility:
6.77%
Monthly Volatility:
13.54%
Yearly Volatility:
46.91%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.91%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -3.79% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.13%
Weekly VaR:
-13.72%
Monthly VaR:
-27.44%
How Much Can the price of
BL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$50.37
This translates to price declining to:
$9.85
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BL is a 93.64% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 65.89% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -9.12% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.79
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.553
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.782
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.041
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.626
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.566
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.487
Beta is -46.95% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.112
Beta is -29.05% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.117
Alpha is 222.33% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 742% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BL
Equity cost of capital:
0.086
Equity cost of capital is -20.55% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
0.44%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.54%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.80%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.80%
WACC is -43.65% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.50
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
42.9
Annual revenue growth rate is 5.98% above the industry average
EPS:
-$1.47
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
49.46%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 64.19% higher than the Software�Infrastructure industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.45
-
-
Debt per share
$23.38
EBITDA per share
-$0.33
Valuation Analysis Today of
BL
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
673.29
-
-
BL is -168.48% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.76
Price to sales ratio is -20.25% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
42.9
Price to free cash flow: 144.54
Price to free cash flow ratio is 36.76% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
292.91%
Net income growth rate is -96.55% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
2108.36%
Net debt to equity ratio:
1564.12%
Debt to assets ratio:
74.55%
Net debt to assets ratio:
55.30%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 6.91% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-0.39
Interest coverage ratio is -99.81% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
175.70%
Annual debt growth is 63% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.01%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.314
Statistical significance of correlation:
BL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
Stock price is -34.51% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.079
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.14
Kurtosis
5.704
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.631
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
305%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-10.13%
Operating profit margin is -14.68% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
305%
Effective Tax Rate:
13.37%
Effective tax rate is -57.31% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-130.37%
Return on equity (ROE) is -222.12% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-4.61%
Return on assets (ROA) is 21.72% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
3.9x
Current Ratio:
3.45
Current ratio is 48.23% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
79.4
Cash conversion cycle is -29.45% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-18.45%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
236.8K
Each employee generates -40% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 10.3K
Each employee generates -116% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 45.7K
Each employee generates -318% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 3.2K
Each employee generates -116% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
370.1K
Each employee generates -116% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 36.94%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -1524.58% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
BL
APPIAN CORPORATION (XNAS:APPN)
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (XNAS:LITE)
COHERENT, INC. (XNAS:COHR)
MICROSTRATEGY INCORPORATED (XNAS:MSTR)
LITTELFUSE, INC. (XNAS:LFUS)
CDK GLOBAL, INC. (XNAS:CDK)
NUTANIX, INC. (XNAS:NTNX)
DIGITAL TURBINE, INC. (XNAS:APPS)
II-VI INCORPORATED (XNAS:IIVI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�17%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
447.09M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
106.65M
340.43M
83.60M
87.89M
302.11M
214.22M
-
385.71M
1.12M
49.59M
29.73M
- 19423.00K
- 45273.00K
- 86208.00K
- 93737.00K
- 12536.00K
- 86208.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
9.15M
Differed Income Tax :
- 14156.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
15.90M
Change in Working Capital :
1.79M
Accounts Receivables:
9.46M
Other Working Capital:
- 460.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 2493.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
176.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1528.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 157738.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 335550.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
365.52M
666.12M
1.03B
117.55M
-
22.28M
1.17B
32.88M
443.86M
136.18M
-
-
85.83M
698.75M
-
1.87B
16.29M
5.63M
8.29M
242.30M
75.28M
339.49M
1.39B
39.17M
1.44B
-
1.78B
593.00K
- 252875.00K
113.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
492.36M
66.13M
1.85B
-
1.40B
1.0B
328.25M
- 4657.00K
- 171223.00K
- 106.00K
-
- 4187.00K
-
1.39M
- 2904.00K
- 271.00K
- 174222.00K
365.77M
539.99M
176.00K
- 6185.00K
- 6009.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$69.37
$73.04
$76.92
$80.99
$85.29