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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Blackbaud, Inc. (XNAS:BLKB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BLKB
Name:
BLACKBAUD, INC. (XNAS:BLKB)
Sector:
7.56M
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. Michael Gianoni
Total Employees:
3,600
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -92.31% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BLACKBAUD, INC.(BLKB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
51.23
One Month Price Target:
$51.52
Six Month Price Target :
$52.97
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$54.71
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$50.97
Price Upper limit ($) :
$51.47
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$48.17
This week:
$44.39
This month :
$37.56
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.66B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
53.03M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.79%
-20.39%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$65.43
$59.00
$37.03
$43.46
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$56.91
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$55.53
$45.54
$46.93
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BLKB
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.04%
Comparison:
BLKB, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -207.91% lower than the industry
& is -145.63% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BLKB
Daily returns:
-0.02%
Weekly returns:
-0.11%
Monthly returns:
-0.43%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -151.36% below industry average
Classification:
BLKB, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.86
Statistical test of Returns:
BLKB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.89%
Weekly Volatility:
6.47%
Monthly Volatility:
12.95%
Yearly Volatility:
44.85%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.18%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -93.87% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.97%
Weekly VaR:
-13.34%
Monthly VaR:
-26.68%
How Much Can the price of
BLKB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
-92.44%
This translates to price declining to:
$39.01
This translates to price declining to:
$3.87
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BLKB is a 88.34% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 61.35% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -19.46% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BLKB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.01
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.791
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.118
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.958
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.562
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.744
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.417
Beta is -28.64% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is -24.31% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.152
Alpha is 542.87% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -966% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BLKB
Equity cost of capital:
0.101
Equity cost of capital is -18.08% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.54%
Before-tax cost of debt:
29.74%
After-tax cost of debt:
23.49%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
23.49%
WACC is 15.20% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$18.21
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.85
Annual revenue growth rate is -94.12% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.09
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-21.70%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -179.34% lower than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.26
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -6640.73% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.96
EBITDA per share
$1.93
Valuation Analysis Today of
BLKB
P/E Ratio:
504.5
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
128.98
P/E ratio is 291.14% higher than main peers & is 184.07% higher than the industry
-
BLKB is -420.51% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $9.50
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2.38
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.81
Price to sales ratio is -75.47% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.85
Price to free cash flow: 15.70
Price to free cash flow ratio is -80.56% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-87.55%
Net income growth rate is -135.86% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 0.47%
Previous Dividend: $0.12
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.12
Previous Dividend: $0.24
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.12
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
-
-
-
Previous dividend payment date: 13/03/2020
Previous dividend record date: 28/02/2020
Previous dividend declaration date: 02/10/2020
Dividend History:
2020-02-27--$0.12
--$0.00
--$0.00
2019-11-26--$0.12
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
7.20%
Net debt to equity ratio:
4.98%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.93%
Net debt to assets ratio:
1.34%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -96.48% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.98
Interest coverage ratio is -90.62% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
90.11%
Annual debt growth is -90% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 39.93%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.375
Statistical significance of correlation:
BLKB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is -25.43% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.001
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.002
Kurtosis
10.646
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.394
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BLKB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
204%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
1.27%
Operating profit margin is -106.64% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
204%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.89%
Effective tax rate is -13.23% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-0.64%
Return on equity (ROE) is -95.07% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-0.17%
Return on assets (ROA) is -95.50% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0.67
Current ratio is -77.69% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
22.2
Cash conversion cycle is -76.53% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-612.98%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
268.2K
Each employee generates -22% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
28.4K
Each employee generates 164% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 1.3K
Each employee generates -93% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
2.1K
Each employee generates -127% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
589.3K
Each employee generates -127% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 24.39%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 1495.37% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
BLKB
KULICKE AND SOFFA INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:KLIC)
KNOWBE4, INC. (XNAS:KNBE)
SONOS, INC. (XNAS:SONO)
PERFICIENT, INC. (XNAS:PRFT)
FLYWIRE CORPORATION (XNAS:FLYW)
NOVA LTD (XNAS:NVMI)
VIASAT, INC. (XNAS:VSAT)
VERINT SYSTEMS INC. (XNAS:VRNT)
MATTERPORT, INC. (XNAS:MTTR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�13%
Hold�17%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
965.67M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
474.36M
491.31M
135.35M
159.44M
352.17M
192.74M
2.49M
490.01M
159.00K
20.49M
87.49M
102.09M
12.28M
- 4545.00K
- 5894.00K
- 1349.00K
- 4545.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
25.55M
Differed Income Tax :
- 7431.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
27.86M
Change in Working Capital :
- 11063.00K
Accounts Receivables:
9.01M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
24.50M
Investments in PP&E:
- 4266.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
33.79M
-
33.79M
93.82M
-
379.51M
507.11M
164.48M
1.06B
683.35M
-
-
216.96M
2.12B
-
2.63B
39.49M
18.12M
-
350.95M
350.37M
758.93M
50.79M
964.62M
1.16B
-
1.92B
68.00K
232.05M
15.3M
457.64M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
964.37M
705.05M
2.63B
-
68.90M
35.1M
-
- 32668.00K
- 36934.00K
- 33765.00K
-
-
-
- 291683.00K
- 325448.00K
- 504.00K
- 338382.00K
313.38M
651.76M
24.50M
- 16949.00K
7.56M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BLKB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$54.98
$39.21
$41.87
$44.71
$47.75