_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Black Knight, Inc. (XNYS:BKI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BKI
Name:
BLACK KNIGHT, INC. (XNYS:BKI)
Sector:
57.70M
Industry:
Software�Infrastructure
CEO:
Mr. Anthony Jabbour
Total Employees:
6,400
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -194.09% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BLACK KNIGHT, INC.(BKI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
66.36
One Month Price Target:
$66.59
Six Month Price Target :
$67.75
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$69.13
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$66.15
Price Upper limit ($) :
$66.6
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$63.65
This week:
$60.3
This month :
$54.24
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
10.20B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
156.04M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.47%
-11.88%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$78.94
$73.18
$53.78
$59.54
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$71.30
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$70.07
$61.40
$62.65
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BKI
Sharpe Ratio:
0.99%
Comparison:
BKI, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -39.30% lower than the industry
& is -56.46% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BKI
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.14%
Monthly returns:
0.57%
Yearly returns:
14.38%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -52.08% below industry average
Classification:
BKI, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.77
Statistical test of Returns:
BKI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.00%
Weekly Volatility:
4.48%
Monthly Volatility:
8.95%
Yearly Volatility:
31.02%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.32%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -33.84% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.08%
Weekly VaR:
-9.13%
Monthly VaR:
-18.26%
How Much Can the price of
BKI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-63.26%
This translates to price declining to:
$55.86
This translates to price declining to:
$24.38
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BKI is a 28.89% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 10.42% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -39.90% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BKI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.62
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.602
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.852
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.316
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.582
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.464
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.228
Beta is -49.38% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.112
Beta is -44.06% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.65%
Sustainable growth rate is -97.93% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.005
Alpha is -114.29% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -33% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BKI
Equity cost of capital:
0.074
Equity cost of capital is -31.17% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.77%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.05%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.41%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.41%
WACC is -32.51% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.69
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.16
Annual revenue growth rate is -60.79% below industry average
EPS:
$3.33
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
21.58%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -28.36% lower than the Software�Infrastructure industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.22
-
-
Debt per share
$17.43
EBITDA per share
$6.41
Valuation Analysis Today of
BKI
P/E Ratio:
19.88
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
16.13
P/E ratio is 23.25% higher than main peers & is -69.52% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $217.23
BKI is -69.45% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
6.85
Price to sales ratio is -37.67% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.16
Price to free cash flow: 29.89
Price to free cash flow ratio is -52.70% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
19.81%
Net income growth rate is -99.77% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
110.98%
Net debt to equity ratio:
111.64%
Debt to assets ratio:
45.77%
Net debt to assets ratio:
46.04%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -34.36% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.86
Interest coverage ratio is -105.62% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
10.14%
Annual debt growth is -91% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 4.33%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.528
Statistical significance of correlation:
BKI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
Stock price is 10.12% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.01
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.012
Kurtosis
8.859
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.654
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BKI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
20.85%
Operating profit margin is -275.67% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
12.97%
Effective tax rate is -58.59% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
21.15%
Return on equity (ROE) is -80.19% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
8.72%
Return on assets (ROA) is -330.34% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.8x
Current Ratio:
0.84
Current ratio is -63.95% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
-
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.06%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
236.4K
Each employee generates -40% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
156.4K
Each employee generates 139% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
81.0K
Each employee generates 287% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
9.0K
Each employee generates -54% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
880.6K
Each employee generates -54% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BKI
FAIR ISAAC CORPORATION (XNYS:FICO)
Wolfspeed, Inc. (XNYS:WOLF)
ZENDESK, INC. (XNYS:ZEN)
GODADDY INC. (XNYS:GDDY)
LEIDOS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:LDOS)
SAMSARA INC. (XNYS:IOT)
ASANA, INC. (XNYS:ASAN)
CIENA CORPORATION (XNYS:CIEN)
JUNIPER NETWORKS, INC. (XNYS:JNPR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�21%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.51B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
386.20M
-
-
-
-
1.18B
1.18B
-
84.40M
368.70M
1.00B
315.40M
518.40M
226.60M
29.40M
518.40M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
91.50M
Differed Income Tax :
- 135800.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
10.70M
Change in Working Capital :
58.80M
Accounts Receivables:
- 2500.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 16100.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 302200.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
85.10M
Investments in PP&E:
- 6600.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
27.60M
-
27.60M
216.90M
-
62.60M
307.10M
181.80M
3.82B
1.06B
170.00M
-
408.10M
5.64B
-
5.94B
10.10M
43.80M
145.60M
68.10M
243.90M
365.90M
2.72B
40.40M
3.09B
-
3.45B
-
1.33B
- 7000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.18B
2.45B
5.90B
-
2.76B
2.7B
-
- 20800.00K
- 27400.00K
- 123100.00K
-
-
-
15.90M
- 107200.00K
-
- 49500.00K
27.60M
77.10M
85.10M
- 27400.00K
57.70M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BKI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$79.66
$82.99
$86.46
$90.07
$93.84