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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Bj'S Restaurants, Inc. (XNAS:BJRI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BJRI
Name:
BJ'S RESTAURANTS, INC. (XNAS:BJRI)
Sector:
- 11487.00K
Industry:
Restaurants
CEO:
Mr. Gregory Trojan
Total Employees:
21,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 291.53% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BJ'S RESTAURANTS, INC.(BJRI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RESTAURANTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
25.43
One Month Price Target:
$25.69
Six Month Price Target :
$26.99
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$28.55
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$25.23
Price Upper limit ($) :
$25.67
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$22.8
This week:
$19.55
This month :
$13.68
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
580.02M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
23.45M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
35.28%
-38.19%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$37.62
$32.04
$13.24
$18.82
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$30.22
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$29.02
$20.63
$21.84
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BJRI
Sharpe Ratio:
1.39%
Comparison:
BJRI, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -15.94% lower than the industry
& is -39.22% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BJRI
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.40%
Monthly returns:
1.58%
Yearly returns:
16.01%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 18.52% above industry average
Classification:
BJRI, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.46
Statistical test of Returns:
BJRI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.07%
Weekly Volatility:
11.34%
Monthly Volatility:
22.67%
Yearly Volatility:
78.54%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.15%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -57.64% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.33%
Weekly VaR:
-23.10%
Monthly VaR:
-46.21%
How Much Can the price of
BJRI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-40%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$15.27
This translates to price declining to:
$3.81
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BJRI is a 226.14% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 179.40% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 45.16% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BJRI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.83
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.217
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.721
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.977
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.318
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.453
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.349
Beta is 35.37% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.354
Beta is 34.93% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.033
Alpha is -7.60% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 211% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BJRI
Equity cost of capital:
0.157
Equity cost of capital is 26.07% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
16.96%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.81%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.64%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.64%
WACC is 96.82% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$49.56
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.77
Annual revenue growth rate is -118.49% below industry average
EPS:
$0.03
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.14
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -98.77%
Equity growth rate per share is 921.13% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$20.52
EBITDA per share
$2.48
Valuation Analysis Today of
BJRI
P/E Ratio:
752.67
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
11.06
P/E ratio is 6702.39% higher than main peers & is 3081.11% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $0.71
BJRI is 3482.58% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $7.58
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $1.66
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.51
Price to sales ratio is -84.27% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.77
Price to free cash flow: 185.01
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-107.03%
Net income growth rate is -161.48% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.22%
Dividend yeild: 1.02%
Previous Dividend: $0.13
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.13
Previous Dividend: $0.26
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.13
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
-
-
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2020
Previous dividend record date: 03/10/2020
Previous dividend declaration date: 20/02/2020
Dividend History:
2020-03-09--$0.13
--$0.00
--$0.00
2019-11-07--$0.13
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
142.55%
Net debt to equity ratio:
146.21%
Debt to assets ratio:
47.19%
Net debt to assets ratio:
48.40%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -70.06% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
13.74
Interest coverage ratio is -22.29% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 26.10%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.543
Statistical significance of correlation:
BJRI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.517
Stock price is 5.08% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.517
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.012
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.035
Kurtosis
13.524
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.247
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BJRI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
46%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-1.38%
Operating profit margin is -114.63% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
46%
Effective Tax Rate:
105.35%
Effective tax rate is 506.65% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
0.29%
Return on equity (ROE) is -7.93% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.10%
Return on assets (ROA) is -99.31% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.9x
Current Ratio:
0.4
Current ratio is -64.72% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-48.5
Cash conversion cycle is -245.98% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 28.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
272.56%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
55.4K
Each employee generates -51% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
2.8K
Each employee generates -89% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
0.0K
Each employee generates -100% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 0.5K
Each employee generates -123% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
45.1K
Each employee generates -123% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BJRI
PURPLE INNOVATION, INC. (XNAS:PRPL)
ELECTRIC LAST MILE SOLUTIONS, INC. (OTCM:ELMSQ)
LIQUIDITY SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:LQDT)
Winmark Corporation (XNAS:WINA)
FUNKO, INC. (XNAS:FNKO)
THE LOVESAC COMPANY (XNAS:LOVE)
TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA INC. (XNAS:TA)
Betterware de Mexico SAPI de CV (XNAS:BWMX)
CONN'S, INC. (XNAS:CONN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�0%
Hold�38%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/29/22
Revenue:
1.16B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.03B
133.26M
-
70.95M
70.95M
-
74.46M
145.41M
-
4.23M
72.53M
58.17M
- 15985.00K
995.00K
- 18590.00K
- 19585.00K
995.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
17.98M
Differed Income Tax :
- 10315.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.71M
Change in Working Capital :
- 19665.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
8.44M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
609.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 12096.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/29/22
2022
Q1
27.20M
-
27.20M
24.11M
11.39M
10.89M
73.59M
861.66M
4.67M
-
-
35.22M
44.92M
946.47M
-
1.02B
49.08M
39.58M
-
-
97.04M
185.69M
481.33M
15.38M
496.71M
-
682.40M
-
268.34M
-
-
March 29, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.17B
337.66M
1.02B
-
520.91M
493.7M
-
566.00K
- 11530.00K
- 170000.00K
-
-
- 42.00K
169.64M
- 405.00K
-
- 11326.00K
27.20M
38.53M
609.00K
- 12096.00K
- 11487.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BJRI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$23.57
$26.47
$29.71
$33.36
$37.46