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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Bionano Genomics, Inc. (XNAS:BNGO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BNGO
Name:
BIONANO GENOMICS, INC. (XNAS:BNGO)
Sector:
- 32644.00K
Industry:
Diagnostics & Research
CEO:
DR. R. Erik Holmlin
Total Employees:
299
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 269.63% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BIONANO GENOMICS, INC.(BNGO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DIAGNOSTICS & RESEARCH INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
2.31
One Month Price Target:
$2.34
Six Month Price Target :
$2.48
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$2.65
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$2.28
Price Upper limit ($) :
$2.36
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$1.88
This week:
$1.35
This month :
$.39
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
652.82M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
290.14M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
133.77%
-33.58%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$4.30
$3.37
$0.32
$1.25
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$3.07
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$2.87
$1.55
$1.75
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BNGO
Sharpe Ratio:
5.06%
Comparison:
BNGO, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 101.06% higher than the industry
& ratio is 122.13% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BNGO
Daily returns:
0.48%
Weekly returns:
2.40%
Monthly returns:
9.59%
Yearly returns:
27.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 312.02% above industry average
Classification:
BNGO, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.24
Statistical test of Returns:
BNGO has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
9.29%
Weekly Volatility:
20.78%
Monthly Volatility:
41.55%
Yearly Volatility:
143.94%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.45%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -62.86% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-18.60%
Weekly VaR:
-41.60%
Monthly VaR:
-83.20%
How Much Can the price of
BNGO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-68%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$0.74
This translates to price declining to:
$0.35
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BNGO is a 487.19% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 403.05% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 140.66% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BNGO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.17
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.269
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.795
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
2.107
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.352
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.609
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.237
Beta is 75.67% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.181
Beta is 83.88% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.970
Alpha is 481.67% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 6174% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BNGO
Equity cost of capital:
0.180
Equity cost of capital is 60.38% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
17.49%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-12.49%
After-tax cost of debt:
-9.87%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-9.87%
WACC is 97.79% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.07
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.15
Annual revenue growth rate is -179.63% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.33
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-33.14%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -223.46% lower than the Diagnostics & Research industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.03
EBITDA per share
-$0.29
Valuation Analysis Today of
BNGO
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
99.35
-
-
BNGO is -118.83% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
32.68
Price to sales ratio is 243.88% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.15
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-85.77%
Net income growth rate is -62.47% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
2.92%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-4.16%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.61%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-3.71%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -94.63% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
61.4
Interest coverage ratio is -318.90% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-66.10%
Annual debt growth is -164% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.09%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.206
Statistical significance of correlation:
BNGO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.488
Stock price is -57.77% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.488
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.015
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.083
Kurtosis
66.111
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
5.235
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BNGO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
81%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-467.50%
Operating profit margin is 315.55% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
81%
Effective Tax Rate:
-5.81%
Effective tax rate is -130.27% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-29.71%
Return on equity (ROE) is -241.40% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-26.55%
Return on assets (ROA) is -90.16% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
12.99
Current ratio is 161.36% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-71.7
Cash conversion cycle is -244.40% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 18.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-5.52%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
68.6K
Each employee generates -82% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 285.0K
Each employee generates -1050% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 309.2K
Each employee generates -2033% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 109.2K
Each employee generates 4918% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
354.0K
Each employee generates 4918% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 119.24%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -6722.61% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
BNGO
CASTLE BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:CSTL)
SANGAMO THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:SGMO)
PULMONX CORPORATION (XNAS:LUNG)
HERON THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:HRTX)
INOGEN, INC. (XNAS:INGN)
Y-MABS THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:YMAB)
LANTHEUS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:LNTH)
C4 Therapeutics Inc (XNAS:CCCC)
REGENXBIO INC. (XNAS:RGNX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
20.51M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
16.82M
3.69M
30.33M
-
69.24M
-
-
99.57M
346.00K
- 1388.00K
2.90M
- 85223.00K
- 95880.00K
- 92440.00K
- 98154.00K
5.70M
- 92440.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.21M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
5.10M
Change in Working Capital :
- 9854.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 640.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 32494.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 150.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 14954.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
24.05M
192.42M
216.47M
5.51M
16.27M
4.11M
242.36M
23.38M
56.25M
25.42M
-
-
798.00K
105.85M
-
348.21M
6.59M
2.03M
-
-
10.04M
18.66M
9.09M
9.28M
18.37M
-
37.03M
29.00K
- 246071.00K
- 1637.0K
558.86M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
116.39M
311.19M
348.21M
-
11.12M
- 12933.0K
-
47.07M
31.96M
- 8.00K
-
-
-
15.00K
7.00K
-
- 523.00K
24.05M
24.57M
- 32494.00K
- 150.00K
- 32644.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BNGO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$2.66
$3.05
$3.49
$4.00
$4.58