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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (XNAS:BMRN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BMRN
Name:
BIOMARIN PHARMACEUTICAL INC. (XNAS:BMRN)
Sector:
- 76106.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. Jean-Jacques Bienaime
Total Employees:
3,045
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 32.61% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BIOMARIN PHARMACEUTICAL INC.(BMRN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
89.64
One Month Price Target:
$89.8
Six Month Price Target :
$90.59
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$91.54
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$89.28
Price Upper limit ($) :
$90.1
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$84.74
This week:
$78.68
This month :
$67.72
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
16.48B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
185.47M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.92%
-35.28%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$112.38
$101.93
$66.90
$77.35
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$98.52
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$96.29
$80.73
$82.99
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BMRN
Sharpe Ratio:
1.82%
Comparison:
BMRN, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -6.22% lower than the industry
& is -19.99% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BMRN
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.29%
Monthly returns:
1.16%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -44.89% below industry average
Classification:
BMRN, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.76
Statistical test of Returns:
BMRN has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.69%
Weekly Volatility:
6.02%
Monthly Volatility:
12.03%
Yearly Volatility:
41.69%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.46%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -45.59% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.47%
Weekly VaR:
-12.23%
Monthly VaR:
-24.46%
How Much Can the price of
BMRN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-84.72%
This translates to price declining to:
$70.85
This translates to price declining to:
$13.70
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BMRN is a 72.61% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 47.87% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -43.40% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BMRN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.32
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.613
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.868
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.248
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.758
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.693
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.993
Beta is -68.21% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -72.58% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
0.38%
Sustainable growth rate is -99.28% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.086
Alpha is -39.46% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 547% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BMRN
Equity cost of capital:
0.053
Equity cost of capital is -51.87% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.18%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.35%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.07%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.07%
WACC is -49.76% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$10.13
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.79
Annual revenue growth rate is -96.29% below industry average
EPS:
$0.18
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
41.72%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 318.01% higher than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.13
-
-
Debt per share
$5.82
EBITDA per share
$0.85
Valuation Analysis Today of
BMRN
P/E Ratio:
354.57
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
107.04
P/E ratio is 231.25% higher than main peers & is 295.17% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $16.15
BMRN is 455.01% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.85
Price to sales ratio is -78.16% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.79
Price to free cash flow: 704.59
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-18.72%
Net income growth rate is -126.53% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
24.60%
Net debt to equity ratio:
10.81%
Debt to assets ratio:
17.81%
Net debt to assets ratio:
7.83%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -57.74% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
10.8
Interest coverage ratio is -109.12% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.05%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.496
Statistical significance of correlation:
BMRN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 45.84% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.002
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.003
Kurtosis
45.31
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-3.286
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BMRN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
300%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
1.59%
Operating profit margin is -100.37% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
300%
Effective Tax Rate:
-10.50%
Effective tax rate is -284.03% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
0.90%
Return on equity (ROE) is -101.56% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.65%
Return on assets (ROA) is -103.18% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
4.88
Current ratio is -39.70% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
222.4
Cash conversion cycle is -58.28% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
121.57%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
617.3K
Each employee generates -62% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
51.8K
Each employee generates -87% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
12.9K
Each employee generates -90% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 25.0K
Each employee generates -117% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.2M
Each employee generates -117% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 0.11%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -103.00% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
BMRN
INCYTE CORPORATION (XNAS:INCY)
BIO-TECHNE CORPORATION (XNAS:TECH)
ABIOMED, INC. (XNAS:ABMD)
PPD
10X GENOMICS, INC. (XNAS:TXG)
MASIMO CORPORATION (XNAS:MASI)
INSULET CORPORATION (XNAS:PODD)
ROYALTY PHARMA PLC (XNAS:RPRX)
HOLOGIC, INC. (XNAS:HOLX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�29%
Buy�50%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.88B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
467.31M
1.41B
640.90M
274.10M
779.72M
311.00M
66.30M
1.49B
9.86M
14.60M
107.40M
157.61M
29.90M
39.35M
35.61M
- 3738.00K
39.35M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
27.34M
Differed Income Tax :
4.80M
Stock Based Compensation :
47.83M
Change in Working Capital :
- 136692.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 54813.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 109513.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 45431.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 28817.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 147361.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
605.44M
450.80M
1.06B
430.15M
786.36M
121.28M
2.39B
1.04B
196.20M
374.25M
462.83M
1.45B
149.19M
3.67B
-
6.06B
-
-
-
-
490.42M
490.42M
1.08B
100.91M
1.18B
-
1.67B
185.00K
- 804891.00K
- 877.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.95B
4.39B
6.06B
913.63M
1.08B
474.6M
155.82M
108.14M
87.78M
- 566.00K
-
-
-
- 24714.00K
- 25280.00K
1.09M
18.16M
605.44M
587.28M
- 45431.00K
- 30675.00K
- 76106.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BMRN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$86.65
$88.49
$90.37
$92.29
$94.24