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Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (XNAS:BMRN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today

Primary Facts

BMRN

Name:

BIOMARIN PHARMACEUTICAL INC. (XNAS:BMRN)

Sector:

- 76106.00K

Industry:

Biotechnology

CEO:

Mr. Jean-Jacques Bienaime

Total Employees:

3,045

Our Technological Advancement Rating

Our Rating:

B

Technological advancement compared to industry is 32.61% higher

ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BIOMARIN PHARMACEUTICAL INC.(BMRN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022

Primary Targets/Price Insights

Previous Close ($) :

89.64

One Month Price Target:

$89.8

Six Month Price Target :

$90.59

Likely Price in One Year's Time:

Ticker:

$91.54

Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
 

$89.28

Price Upper limit ($) :

$90.1

Price Lower limit ($) :

Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)

Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:

Today:

$84.74

                                                               This week:

$78.68

                                                        This month :

$67.72

Other Primary facts

Market Cap:

16.48B

Market Cap Classification:

Mid Cap

Number of Shares

IPO Date:

185.47M

Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
 

Highest Daily Appreciation:

11.92%

-35.28%

Worst Daily Decline:

Our Options Trading Entry Points

Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time

Low risk (<2%) entry points

Buy Call:

Sell Call:

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$112.38

$101.93

$66.90

$77.35

Medium risk (<10%) entry points

Buy Call

Sell Call

$98.52

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$96.29

$80.73

$82.99

These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.

Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of

BMRN

Sharpe Ratio:

1.82%

Comparison:

BMRN, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns

Sharpe ratio is -6.22% lower than the industry

& is -19.99% lower than the market/S&P 500 average

Average Returns/Yield of

BMRN

Daily returns:

0.06%

Weekly returns:

0.29%

Monthly returns:

1.16%

Yearly returns:

25.22%

Comparison of returns:

Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -44.89% below industry average

Classification:

BMRN, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns

Results of T-Test of Returns:

0.76

Statistical test of Returns:

BMRN has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market

SHARPE ratio explained.png

Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)

Daily Volatility:

2.69%

Weekly Volatility:

6.02%

Monthly Volatility:

12.03%

Yearly Volatility:

41.69%

Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation) 

Average Volatility of this Week:

1.46%

Volatility in last five trading days has been -45.59% below long-term volatility

Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)

Daily VaR:

-5.47%

Weekly VaR:

-12.23%

Monthly VaR:

-24.46%

How Much Can the price of

BMRN

Decline in a Recession?

Likely price decline in a recession: 

Base case (decline):

-21%

Worst case (decline):

-84.72%

This translates to price declining to:

$70.85

This translates to price declining to:

$13.70

Severe Crash Probability

Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)

What is Value at Risk (VaR)?

VaR explained figure

Risk Fundamentals

BMRN is a 72.61% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 47.87% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)

Risk (measured by volatility) is -43.40% below industry average

Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks

Beta Examination of

BMRN

Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.32

Expected beta in 1 year's time:

0.613

Expected beta in 3 year's time:

0.868

Unlevered (debt free) Beta:

0.248

Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):

0.758

Beta in relation to all global stocks::

0.693

Beta Comparison & Analysis

Beta of competitors/peers::

0.993

Beta is -68.21% lower than peers

Average Industry Beta: 

1.152

Beta is -72.58% below industry average

Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis

Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:

0.38%

Sustainable growth rate is -99.28% below industry average

Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis 

Alpha provided:

0.086

Alpha is -39.46% below industry average alpha yield

Alpha is 547% higher than market/& is unsustainably high

Analysis of Cost of Capital of

BMRN

Equity cost of capital:

0.053

Equity cost of capital is -51.87% below industry mean WACC

Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:  

4.18%

Before-tax cost of debt:

1.35%

After-tax cost of debt:

1.07%

Overall debt rating:

Highest AAA investment grade

Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):

1.07%

WACC is -49.76% below industry mean WACC

Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis

Revenue per share:

$10.13

Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):

3.79

Annual revenue growth rate is -96.29% below industry average

EPS:

$0.18

Expected Annual growth rate of  EPS (3Y):

41.72%

Expected future EPS growth rate is 318.01% higher than the Biotechnology industry

Free cash flow (FCF) per share:

$0.13

-

-

Debt per share

$5.82

EBITDA per share

$0.85

Valuation Analysis Today of

BMRN

P/E Ratio:

354.57

P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:

107.04

P/E ratio is 231.25% higher than main peers & is 295.17% higher than the industry

Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $16.15

BMRN is 455.01% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio

-

-

P/S (Price to Sales ratio):

8.85

Price to sales ratio is -78.16% below the industry mean

P/B (Price to book value ratio):

3.79

Price to free cash flow: 704.59

-

Net income growth rate (3Y):

-18.72%

Net income growth rate is -126.53% lower than the industry average net income growth rate

Dividend Analysis

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Dividend History:

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

-

In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis

Debt to equity ratio:

24.60%

Net debt to equity ratio:

10.81%

Debt to assets ratio:

17.81%

Net debt to assets ratio:

7.83%

Debt-to-asset ratio is -57.74% below industry average

Ability to repay debt:

Interest coverage ratio:

10.8

Interest coverage ratio is -109.12% less than industry average

Looking forward:

Debt growth rate:

0.00%

-

Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.05%

Analysis of Key Statistics  

Correlation of price movement with the market:

0.496

Statistical significance of correlation:

BMRN has a statistically significant correlation with the market

Average Correlation of  the industry with the market:

0.34

Stock price is 45.84% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation

R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market): 

0.34

Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):

0.002

Covariance  of price movement with the market:

0.003

Kurtosis 

45.31

Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns

Skewness of returns:

-3.286

Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns

Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of

BMRN

Gross Profit Margin Ratio:

300%

Operating Profit Margin Ratio:

1.59%

Operating profit margin is -100.37% lower than the industry

Net Profit Margin Ratio:

300%

Effective Tax Rate:

-10.50%

Effective tax rate is -284.03% lower than the industry

Dupont Method

Net Profit Margin

Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):

×

ROA

=

×

0.90%

Return on equity (ROE) is -101.56% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage

Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):

0.65%

Return on assets (ROA) is -103.18% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage:

1.2x

Current Ratio:

4.88

Current ratio is -39.70% below industry average

Cash Conversion Cycle (days):

222.4

Cash conversion cycle is -58.28% below industry average

The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.0 years

Stock based compensation to net income ratio:

121.57%

In-depth Efficiency  Analysis

Revenue generated per employee:

617.3K

Each employee generates -62% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee

EBITDA generated per employee: 

51.8K

Each employee generates -87% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee

Profit generated per employee: 

12.9K

Each employee generates -90% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee

Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee: 

- 25.0K

Each employee generates -117% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Assets/Capital per employee

1.2M

Each employee generates -117% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Research & Development (R&D) Analysis

Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 0.11%

Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -103.00% lower than the industry

Competitors/Peer firms of 

BMRN

INCYTE CORPORATION (XNAS:INCY)

BIO-TECHNE CORPORATION (XNAS:TECH)

ABIOMED, INC. (XNAS:ABMD)

PPD

10X GENOMICS, INC. (XNAS:TXG)

MASIMO CORPORATION (XNAS:MASI)

INSULET CORPORATION (XNAS:PODD)

ROYALTY PHARMA PLC (XNAS:RPRX)

HOLOGIC, INC. (XNAS:HOLX)

Current Analyst Ratings

Strong buy�29%

Buy�50%