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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Biolife Solutions, Inc. (XNAS:BLFS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BLFS
Name:
BIOLIFE SOLUTIONS, INC. (XNAS:BLFS)
Sector:
- 9380.00K
Industry:
Medical Instruments & Supplies
CEO:
Mr. Michael Rice
Total Employees:
432
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 0.55% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BIOLIFE SOLUTIONS, INC.(BLFS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & SUPPLIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
23.31
One Month Price Target:
$23.56
Six Month Price Target :
$24.8
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$26.28
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$23.17
Price Upper limit ($) :
$23.53
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$21.19
This week:
$18.58
This month :
$13.85
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.02B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
42.61M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.62%
-29.47%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$33.12
$28.57
$13.50
$18.05
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$27.09
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$26.12
$19.51
$20.50
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BLFS
Sharpe Ratio:
3.49%
Comparison:
BLFS, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 118.03% higher than the industry
& ratio is 53.16% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BLFS
Daily returns:
0.17%
Weekly returns:
0.83%
Monthly returns:
3.32%
Yearly returns:
14.68%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 171.24% above industry average
Classification:
BLFS, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.44
Statistical test of Returns:
BLFS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.50%
Weekly Volatility:
10.06%
Monthly Volatility:
20.12%
Yearly Volatility:
69.71%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.63%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -63.67% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.08%
Weekly VaR:
-20.29%
Monthly VaR:
-40.59%
How Much Can the price of
BLFS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-34%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$15.39
This translates to price declining to:
$3.50
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BLFS is a 186.46% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 145.41% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 55.00% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BLFS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.90
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.3
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.838
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.849
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.401
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.97
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.439
Beta is 31.87% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.989
Beta is 91.81% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
1.39%
Sustainable growth rate is -90.55% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.237
Alpha is 397.83% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1507% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BLFS
Equity cost of capital:
0.161
Equity cost of capital is 62.68% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
15.73%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-1.02%
After-tax cost of debt:
-0.80%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-0.80%
WACC is 75.84% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.25
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.08
Annual revenue growth rate is 408.42% above the industry average
EPS:
-$0.32
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -38721.46% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.53
EBITDA per share
-$0.47
Valuation Analysis Today of
BLFS
P/E Ratio:
243.28
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
26.96
P/E ratio is 802.43% higher than main peers & is 387.63% higher than the industry
-
BLFS is -246.01% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.17
Price to sales ratio is -3.33% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.08
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-993.07%
Net income growth rate is 839.75% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
4.70%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-7.00%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.13%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-6.15%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -88.49% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
75.11
Interest coverage ratio is 5.89% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
2328.09%
Annual debt growth is 2017% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.55%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.485
Statistical significance of correlation:
BLFS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.505
Stock price is -4.00% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.505
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.048
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.125
Kurtosis
4.707
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.29
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BLFS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
118%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-29.30%
Operating profit margin is -318.91% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
118%
Effective Tax Rate:
43.63%
Effective tax rate is 32.75% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-4.15%
Return on equity (ROE) is -90.90% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-3.65%
Return on assets (ROA) is -150.98% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
3.39
Current ratio is -7.23% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
35.4
Cash conversion cycle is -32.76% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-27.18%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
320.7K
Each employee generates -9% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 45.9K
Each employee generates -141% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 46.0K
Each employee generates -159% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 21.7K
Each employee generates 277% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
984.5K
Each employee generates 277% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 75.88%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 29205.18% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
BLFS
MANNKIND CORPORATION (XNAS:MNKD)
Mind Medicine (MindMed) Inc. (XNAS:MNMD)
MERSANA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:MRSN)
SI-BONE, INC. (XNAS:SIBN)
SCHOLAR ROCK HOLDING CORPORATION (XNAS:SRRK)
CELLDEX THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:CLDX)
ZOGENIX, INC. (XNAS:ZGNX)
PROTHENA CORPORATION PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:PRTA)
Praxis Precision Medicines Inc (XNAS:PRAX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
138.53M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
98.30M
40.22M
13.61M
40.46M
57.33M
16.87M
42.38M
113.32M
-
- 264.00K
15.67M
- 19829.00K
- 40592.00K
- 19863.00K
- 35236.00K
- 15373.00K
- 19863.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.52M
Differed Income Tax :
- 599.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
5.40M
Change in Working Capital :
- 7268.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 1083.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 2906.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 7924.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1456.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
59.46M
-
59.46M
24.27M
30.20M
4.77M
118.70M
36.82M
224.74M
149.29M
4.37M
-
10.09M
425.31M
-
544.01M
11.71M
3.50M
33.00K
895.00K
18.93M
35.04M
22.48M
3.08M
30.45M
-
65.49M
42.00K
- 112086.00K
- 438.0K
591.00M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
211.63M
478.52M
544.01M
-
25.99M
- 33477.0K
-
- 814.00K
- 2270.00K
- 125.00K
-
-
-
- 56.00K
- 181.00K
- 22.00K
- 10397.00K
59.47M
69.87M
- 7924.00K
- 1456.00K
- 9380.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BLFS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$26.41
$1.55
$1.75
$1.97
$2.23