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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Biogen Inc. (XNAS:BIIB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BIIB
Name:
BIOGEN INC. (XNAS:BIIB)
Sector:
103.90M
Industry:
Drug Manufacturers�General
CEO:
Mr. Michel Vounatsos
Total Employees:
9,610
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -85.20% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BIOGEN INC.(BIIB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DRUG MANUFACTURERS�GENERAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
196.03
One Month Price Target:
$196.5
Six Month Price Target :
$198.82
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$201.62
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$195.03
Price Upper limit ($) :
$197.17
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$183.14
This week:
$167.2
This month :
$138.37
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
28.51B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
146.45M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
43.97%
-9.42%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$255.88
$228.51
$136.18
$163.55
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$219.61
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$213.76
$172.38
$178.30
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BIIB
Sharpe Ratio:
0.85%
Comparison:
BIIB, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -56.51% lower than the industry
& is -62.60% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BIIB
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.18%
Monthly returns:
0.73%
Yearly returns:
11.30%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -22.94% below industry average
Classification:
BIIB, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.64
Statistical test of Returns:
BIIB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.22%
Weekly Volatility:
7.20%
Monthly Volatility:
14.40%
Yearly Volatility:
49.89%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.73%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -46.30% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.58%
Weekly VaR:
-14.71%
Monthly VaR:
-29.42%
How Much Can the price of
BIIB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$145.85
This translates to price declining to:
$29.40
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BIIB is a 107.62% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 77.86% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 69.69% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BIIB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.42
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.476
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.673
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.276
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.712
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.664
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.811
Beta is -47.68% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.492
Beta is -13.72% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
14.56%
Sustainable growth rate is -79.30% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.027
Alpha is -44.52% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 169% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BIIB
Equity cost of capital:
0.061
Equity cost of capital is -7.09% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.94%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.36%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.66%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.66%
WACC is 1.53% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$73.88
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.56
Annual revenue growth rate is -82.88% below industry average
EPS:
$9.76
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-30.86%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 1593.45% higher than the Drug Manufacturers�General industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$18.25
-
-
Debt per share
$44.98
EBITDA per share
$15.86
Valuation Analysis Today of
BIIB
P/E Ratio:
14
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
60.37
P/E ratio is -76.82% lower than main peers & is -22.62% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $176.53
BIIB is 11.04% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.65
Price to sales ratio is -28.56% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.56
Price to free cash flow: 10.74
Price to free cash flow ratio is 1.64% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-55.27%
Net income growth rate is -141.64% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
58.60%
Net debt to equity ratio:
51.93%
Debt to assets ratio:
27.90%
Net debt to assets ratio:
24.72%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -59.03% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9.1
Interest coverage ratio is -78.76% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.404
Statistical significance of correlation:
BIIB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.517
Stock price is -21.87% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.517
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.014
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.026
Kurtosis
80.601
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
6.448
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BIIB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
311%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
22.90%
Operating profit margin is 5.47% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
311%
Effective Tax Rate:
8.23%
Effective tax rate is -21.37% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.90%
Return on equity (ROE) is -87.15% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.14%
Return on assets (ROA) is -40.91% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
2.01
Current ratio is 42.39% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
20.9
Cash conversion cycle is -78.94% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.66%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.1M
Each employee generates -1% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
241.7K
Each employee generates -39% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
150.9K
Each employee generates -32% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
10.8K
Each employee generates -84% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.6M
Each employee generates -84% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -37.33%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -261.18% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
BIIB
ALXN
CERNER CORPORATION (XNAS:CERN)
SEAGEN INC. (XNAS:SGEN)
Genmab A/S (XNAS:GMAB)
BEIGENE, LTD. (XNAS:BGNE)
DEXCOM, INC. (XNAS:DXCM)
ICON PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:ICLR)
HORIZON THERAPEUTICS PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:HZNP)
WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE, INC. (XNAS:WBA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�33%
Buy�54%
Hold�46%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
10.82B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.39B
8.43B
2.54B
-
2.71B
-
671.50M
5.92B
11.00M
255.10M
483.90M
2.32B
2.48B
1.45B
1.63B
133.80M
1.45B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
143.10M
Differed Income Tax :
1.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
67.60M
Change in Working Capital :
- 780500.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 87500.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 111700.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
512.10M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
161.80M
Investments in PP&E:
- 57900.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 1133500.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.75B
2.00B
3.75B
2.02B
1.22B
927.40M
7.92B
3.73B
5.76B
2.15B
2.77B
1.29B
-
15.70B
-
23.61B
398.70M
999.50M
317.30M
-
2.55B
3.95B
6.59B
1.29B
8.45B
-
12.39B
100.00K
14.22B
- 115200.0K
- 2858100.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
8.31B
11.24B
23.64B
4.77B
7.59B
5.8B
543.60M
- 200.00K
- 648000.00K
-
-
-
-
- 16500.00K
- 16500.00K
- 9400.00K
- 512100.00K
1.75B
2.26B
161.80M
- 57900.00K
103.90M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BIIB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$251.47
$258.64
$266.01
$273.59
$281.40