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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Biocryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (XNAS:BCRX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BCRX
Name:
BIOCRYST PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:BCRX)
Sector:
- 78206.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. Jon Stonehouse
Total Employees:
358
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -23.76% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BIOCRYST PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.(BCRX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
14.07
One Month Price Target:
$14.23
Six Month Price Target :
$15.05
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$16.04
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$13.99
Price Upper limit ($) :
$14.26
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$12.47
This week:
$10.48
This month :
$6.9
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.53B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
185.95M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
39.08%
-37.81%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$21.49
$17.99
$6.65
$10.15
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$16.85
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$16.10
$11.28
$12.04
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BCRX
Sharpe Ratio:
6.82%
Comparison:
BCRX, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 250.98% higher than the industry
& ratio is 199.42% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BCRX
Daily returns:
0.40%
Weekly returns:
2.00%
Monthly returns:
8.02%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 281.39% above industry average
Classification:
BCRX, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.11
Statistical test of Returns:
BCRX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.74%
Weekly Volatility:
12.84%
Monthly Volatility:
25.69%
Yearly Volatility:
88.98%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.99%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -82.82% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.40%
Weekly VaR:
-25.48%
Monthly VaR:
-50.96%
How Much Can the price of
BCRX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-40%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$8.38
This translates to price declining to:
$2.11
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BCRX is a 259.68% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 208.13% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 20.81% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BCRX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.08
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.225
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.732
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.75
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.286
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.941
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.889
Beta is 133.74% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is 80.46% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
261.14%
Sustainable growth rate is 397.94% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.788
Alpha is 455.63% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 5017% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BCRX
Equity cost of capital:
0.174
Equity cost of capital is 57.50% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-6.28%
Before-tax cost of debt:
11.46%
After-tax cost of debt:
9.05%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
9.05%
WACC is -15.06% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.01
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-15.93
Annual revenue growth rate is -35.50% below industry average
EPS:
-$1.07
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
3.09%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -68.99% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$3.29
EBITDA per share
-$0.65
Valuation Analysis Today of
BCRX
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
825.06
-
-
BCRX is -114.65% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
13.91
Price to sales ratio is -65.65% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-15.93
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
12.14%
Net income growth rate is -82.80% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-372.02%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-132.45%
Debt to assets ratio:
115.77%
Net debt to assets ratio:
41.21%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 174.60% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-1.71
Interest coverage ratio is -98.55% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
115.23%
Annual debt growth is -15% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.354
Statistical significance of correlation:
BCRX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 4.10% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.024
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.08
Kurtosis
8.759
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.586
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BCRX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
396%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-93.76%
Operating profit margin is -78.13% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
396%
Effective Tax Rate:
-1.32%
Effective tax rate is -123.19% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
118.12%
Return on equity (ROE) is -306.03% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-36.76%
Return on assets (ROA) is 80.16% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
-6.3x
Current Ratio:
6.32
Current ratio is -21.98% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-1195.7
Cash conversion cycle is -324.32% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-4.95%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
525.2K
Each employee generates -67% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 336.0K
Each employee generates -187% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 541.8K
Each employee generates -523% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 218.5K
Each employee generates -248% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
44.7K
Each employee generates -248% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 69.81%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -2045.90% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
BCRX
CYTEK BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:CTKB)
Valneva SE (XNAS:VALN)
CAREDX, INC. (XNAS:CDNA)
LUMIRADX LIMITED (XNAS:LMDX)
BridgeBio Pharma, Inc. (XNAS:BBIO)
ALLSCRIPTS HEALTHCARE SOLUTIONS, INC. (XNAS:MDRX)
MYRIAD GENETICS, INC. (XNAS:MYGN)
CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INCORPORATED (XNAS:CORT)
ALIGNMENT HEALTHCARE, INC. (XNAS:ALHC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�21%
Hold�8%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
188.03M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.62M
186.42M
231.73M
-
130.99M
-
-
362.72M
90.00K
70.23M
916.00K
- 120299.00K
- 176300.00K
- 193974.00K
- 191442.00K
2.53M
- 193974.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
317.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
9.60M
Change in Working Capital :
- 32555.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
75.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
19.03M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 77800.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 406.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 38066.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
395.50M
47.96M
443.47M
36.42M
16.14M
15.69M
511.71M
16.01M
-
-
-
-
-
16.01M
-
527.72M
13.88M
2.08M
-
1.47M
63.58M
81.02M
610.92M
-
610.92M
-
691.94M
1.86M
- 1281700.00K
186.0K
1.12B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
364.33M
- 164215.00K
527.72M
-
613.00M
217.5M
-
-
- 38472.00K
-
-
-
-
7.36M
7.36M
40.00K
- 108876.00K
398.86M
507.73M
- 77800.00K
- 406.00K
- 78206.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BCRX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$16.09
$18.34
$20.90
$23.82
$27.14