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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Bgc Partners, Inc. (XNAS:BGCP) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BGCP
Name:
BGC PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:BGCP)
Sector:
- 21955.00K
Industry:
Capital Markets
CEO:
Mr. Howard Lutnick
Total Employees:
3,920
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -41.82% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BGC PARTNERS, INC.(BGCP) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CAPITAL MARKETS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
4.1
One Month Price Target:
$4.14
Six Month Price Target :
$4.31
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$4.53
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$4.08
Price Upper limit ($) :
$4.12
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$3.81
This week:
$3.45
This month :
$2.8
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.47B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
373.28M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.62%
-25.77%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$5.45
$4.83
$2.75
$3.37
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$4.63
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$4.50
$3.56
$3.70
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BGCP
Sharpe Ratio:
0.13%
Comparison:
BGCP, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -96.35% lower than the industry
& is -94.41% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BGCP
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.07%
Monthly returns:
0.27%
Yearly returns:
25.05%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -87.31% below industry average
Classification:
BGCP, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.71
Statistical test of Returns:
BGCP has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.45%
Weekly Volatility:
7.72%
Monthly Volatility:
15.45%
Yearly Volatility:
53.51%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.62%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -24.19% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.08%
Weekly VaR:
-15.83%
Monthly VaR:
-31.66%
How Much Can the price of
BGCP
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$2.96
This translates to price declining to:
$0.62
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BGCP is a 123.49% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 91.46% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 25.72% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BGCP
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.55
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.148
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.624
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.666
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.619
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.899
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.02
Beta is 51.69% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.144
Beta is 35.20% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.54%
Sustainable growth rate is -80.23% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.106
Alpha is -175.14% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -673% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BGCP
Equity cost of capital:
0.137
Equity cost of capital is 25.11% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.92%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.23%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.92%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.92%
WACC is 21.27% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.66
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.08
Annual revenue growth rate is -92.72% below industry average
EPS:
$0.25
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
25.99%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -50.48% lower than the Capital Markets industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.81
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -94.19%
Equity growth rate per share is -194.15% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$2.82
EBITDA per share
$0.74
Valuation Analysis Today of
BGCP
P/E Ratio:
18.13
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.11
P/E ratio is 49.75% higher than main peers & is -9.34% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $5.00
BGCP is -17.98% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $5.69
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $0.16
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.72
Price to sales ratio is -83.10% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.08
Price to free cash flow: 5.06
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-44.09%
Net income growth rate is -63.52% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.40%
Dividend yeild: 0.98%
Previous Dividend: $0.01
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.01
Previous Dividend: $0.04
Expected next dividend best case: $0.05
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.03
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.03
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -9.29%
Expected next dividend payment date: 31/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 17/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 27/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/02/2022
Previous dividend record date: 19/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 28/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-18--$0.01
2021-11-22--$0.01
2021-05-18--$0.01
2022-03-07--$0.01
2021-08-23--$0.01
2021-03-15--$0.01
Dividend growth rate is -131.30% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
155.66%
Net debt to equity ratio:
80.93%
Debt to assets ratio:
21.29%
Net debt to assets ratio:
11.07%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -71.30% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.2
Interest coverage ratio is -91.77% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-7.13%
Annual debt growth is -132% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.15%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.407
Statistical significance of correlation:
BGCP has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.637
Stock price is -36.04% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.637
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.016
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.031
Kurtosis
9.006
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.544
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BGCP
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
3.95%
Operating profit margin is -79.62% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
15.04%
Effective tax rate is -24.30% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.16%
Return on equity (ROE) is -33.69% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.21%
Return on assets (ROA) is -59.72% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 13.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
53.00%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
539.0K
Each employee generates -71% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
70.5K
Each employee generates -75% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
27.9K
Each employee generates -84% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 5.6K
Each employee generates -76% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
242.9K
Each employee generates -76% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BGCP
FIRST BANCORP (XNAS:FBNC)
LENDINGTREE, INC. (XNAS:TREE)
FIRST BUSEY CORPORATION (XNAS:BUSE)
ENCORE CAPITAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:ECPG)
CAPITOL FEDERAL FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:CFFN)
WESTAMERICA BANCORPORATION (XNAS:WABC)
NBT BANCORP INC. (XNAS:NBTB)
THE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:TBBK)
PROGRESS ACQUISITION UNT (XNAS:PGRWU)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.11B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
733.39M
-
1.62B
1.66B
41.50M
- 593690.00K
27.17M
21.37M
65.78M
78.62M
276.32M
-
109.19M
151.13M
22.73M
109.19M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
18.40M
Differed Income Tax :
1.51M
Stock Based Compensation :
57.88M
Change in Working Capital :
- 129177.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 45382.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 8364.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
10.81M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 9883.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1030.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 343.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
509.21M
37.92M
547.12M
2.72B
-
-
-
186.46M
487.75M
204.11M
74.02M
-
-
952.34M
5.89B
4.94B
752.89M
4.22M
-
-
-
757.11M
1.05B
-
1.05B
4.50B
4.21B
4.91M
- 1149657.00K
- 37123.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
679.75M
675.81M
4.88B
111.94M
1.06B
547.0M
77.00K
- 11042.00K
- 12338.00K
- 1590.00K
-
-
- 3710.00K
- 18662.00K
- 23962.00K
2.97M
- 43213.00K
523.59M
566.80M
- 9883.00K
- 12072.00K
- 21955.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BGCP
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$5.21
$5.75
$6.35
$7.01
$7.74