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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Berry Global Group, Inc. (XNYS:BERY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BERY
Name:
Berry Global Group, Inc. (XNYS:BERY)
Sector:
- 466000.00K
Industry:
Packaging & Containers
CEO:
Mr. Thomas Salmon
Total Employees:
47,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -4.18% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BERRY GLOBAL GROUP, INC.(BERY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND PACKAGING & CONTAINERS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
53.99
One Month Price Target:
$54.35
Six Month Price Target :
$56.16
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$58.32
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$53.81
Price Upper limit ($) :
$54.22
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$51.52
This week:
$48.47
This month :
$42.96
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
6.66B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
125.10M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
9.65%
-10.69%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$65.44
$60.18
$42.54
$47.80
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$58.47
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$57.34
$49.50
$50.64
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BERY
Sharpe Ratio:
1.62%
Comparison:
BERY, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 3.63% higher than the industry
& is -28.84% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BERY
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.23%
Monthly returns:
0.91%
Yearly returns:
11.46%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -5.11% below industry average
Classification:
BERY, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.55
Statistical test of Returns:
BERY has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.25%
Weekly Volatility:
5.02%
Monthly Volatility:
10.05%
Yearly Volatility:
34.81%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.74%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -66.88% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.57%
Weekly VaR:
-10.22%
Monthly VaR:
-20.43%
How Much Can the price of
BERY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-70.78%
This translates to price declining to:
$44.51
This translates to price declining to:
$15.78
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BERY is a 44.21% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 23.55% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -5.86% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BERY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.19
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.977
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.381
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.346
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.634
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.544
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.82
Beta is -34.41% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.004
Beta is 18.92% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
23.99%
Sustainable growth rate is -36.16% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.005
Alpha is -131.85% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -29% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BERY
Equity cost of capital:
0.113
Equity cost of capital is 12.98% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.28%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.73%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.94%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.94%
WACC is -1.52% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$146.00
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.05
Annual revenue growth rate is 609.29% above the industry average
EPS:
$5.40
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
19.23%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 108.84% higher than the Packaging & Containers industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$78.81
EBITDA per share
$19.85
Valuation Analysis Today of
BERY
P/E Ratio:
9.69
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.76
P/E ratio is -34.34% lower than main peers & is -50.71% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $106.19
BERY is -49.16% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.37
Price to sales ratio is -70.32% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.05
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is -74.29% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
44.27%
Net income growth rate is -262.37% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
299.30%
Net debt to equity ratio:
282.24%
Debt to assets ratio:
56.85%
Net debt to assets ratio:
53.61%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -14.97% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.75
Interest coverage ratio is 20.06% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-3.04%
Annual debt growth is -64% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.05%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.62
Statistical significance of correlation:
BERY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.556
Stock price is 11.45% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.556
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.007
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.009
Kurtosis
3.398
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
-0.089
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BERY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
64%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
7.96%
Operating profit margin is 20.86% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
64%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.02%
Effective tax rate is -50.09% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
26.38%
Return on equity (ROE) is -47.61% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.01%
Return on assets (ROA) is -3.62% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.3x
Current Ratio:
1.76
Current ratio is 11.85% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
13.5
Cash conversion cycle is -78.71% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.42%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
388.6K
Each employee generates -87% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
52.8K
Each employee generates -91% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
18.5K
Each employee generates -93% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 9.9K
Each employee generates -40% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
269.2K
Each employee generates -40% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BERY
SEALED AIR CORPORATION (XNYS:SEE)
On Holding Ltd (XNYS:ONON)
DICK'S SPORTING GOODS, INC. (XNYS:DKS)
ARAMARK (XNYS:ARMK)
Capri Holdings Limited (XNYS:CPRI)
DECKERS OUTDOOR CORPORATION (XNYS:DECK)
NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE HOLDINGS LTD. (XNYS:NCLH)
AUTOLIV, INC. (XNYS:ALV)
RH (XNYS:RH)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�33%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
18.27B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
15.36B
2.91B
-
-
1.08B
-
209.00M
1.29B
-
368.00M
1.06B
2.48B
1.45B
869.00M
1.06B
191.00M
869.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
211.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 12000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
21.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 640000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 640000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 5000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 304000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 162000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
1/1/22
2022
Q1
582.00M
-
582.00M
1.83B
2.04B
237.00M
4.69B
5.22B
-
7.98B
-
-
109.00M
12.65B
237.00M
17.34B
1.58B
20.00M
-
-
1.06B
2.66B
9.86B
946.00M
11.38B
-
14.05B
1.00M
2.41B
- 289000.0K
-
January 1, 2022 at 7:00:00 AM
16.65B
3.29B
17.34B
-
9.88B
9.3B
-
-
- 162000.00K
- 5000.00K
16.00M
- 51000.00K
-
-
- 40000.00K
- 3000.00K
- 509000.00K
582.00M
1.09B
- 304000.00K
- 162000.00K
- 466000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BERY
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$75.81
$81.89
$88.46
$95.55
$103.22