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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Berry Corporation (Bry) (XNAS:BRY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BRY
Name:
BERRY CORPORATION (BRY) (XNAS:BRY)
Sector:
30.90M
Industry:
Oil & Gas E&P
CEO:
Mr. Arthur Smith
Total Employees:
1,224
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -13.17% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BERRY CORPORATION (BRY)(BRY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS E&P INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
8.99
One Month Price Target:
$9.1
Six Month Price Target :
$9.68
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$10.37
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$8.93
Price Upper limit ($) :
$9.07
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$8.12
This week:
$7.04
This month :
$5.1
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
695.45M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
78.76M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.98%
-24.05%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$13.03
$11.17
$4.95
$6.81
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$10.56
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.16
$7.41
$7.82
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BRY
Sharpe Ratio:
2.40%
Comparison:
BRY, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -47.83% lower than the industry
& ratio is 5.19% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BRY
Daily returns:
0.12%
Weekly returns:
0.62%
Monthly returns:
2.47%
Yearly returns:
61.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -51.80% below industry average
Classification:
BRY, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.67
Statistical test of Returns:
BRY has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.78%
Weekly Volatility:
10.68%
Monthly Volatility:
21.36%
Yearly Volatility:
73.98%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.67%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -23.08% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.68%
Weekly VaR:
-21.65%
Monthly VaR:
-43.31%
How Much Can the price of
BRY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-37%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$5.67
This translates to price declining to:
$1.35
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BRY is a 205.68% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 161.87% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -10.54% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BRY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.28
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.127
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.594
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.419
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.697
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.875
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.523
Beta is 49.87% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.012
Beta is 13.40% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.108
Alpha is -75.67% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 689% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BRY
Equity cost of capital:
0.188
Equity cost of capital is 10.91% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.68%
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.85%
After-tax cost of debt:
6.21%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
6.21%
WACC is 10.23% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$10.28
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.12
Annual revenue growth rate is -119.79% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.64
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
74.51%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 131.18% higher than the Oil & Gas E&P industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.33
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -180.13% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$5.01
EBITDA per share
$2.98
Valuation Analysis Today of
BRY
P/E Ratio:
205.67
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
26.9
P/E ratio is 664.57% higher than main peers & is 388.38% higher than the industry
-
BRY is -133.36% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $11.28
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2.52
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.87
Price to sales ratio is -82.24% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.12
Price to free cash flow: 26.95
Price to free cash flow ratio is 440.72% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-107.64%
Net income growth rate is -115.14% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -10.18%
Dividend yeild: 3.45%
Previous Dividend: $0.06
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.06
Previous Dividend: $0.31
Expected next dividend best case: $0.09
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.03
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.08
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 5.77%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.06
2022-03-14--$0.06
2021-09-14--$0.06
2022-05-13--$0.13
2021-12-14--$0.06
2021-06-14--$0.04
Dividend growth rate is -86.06% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
62.63%
Net debt to equity ratio:
60.06%
Debt to assets ratio:
26.42%
Net debt to assets ratio:
25.33%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -50.40% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.53
Interest coverage ratio is -5.06% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.28%
Annual debt growth is -100% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 21.32%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.341
Statistical significance of correlation:
BRY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.394
Stock price is -13.57% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.394
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.049
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.135
Kurtosis
3.501
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.059
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BRY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
168%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
25.14%
Operating profit margin is -1927.38% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
168%
Effective Tax Rate:
2.97%
Effective tax rate is -84.99% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-8.09%
Return on equity (ROE) is -195.09% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-3.41%
Return on assets (ROA) is -248.49% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
0.68
Current ratio is -66.19% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
57.8
Cash conversion cycle is -18.35% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-7.22%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
661.4K
Each employee generates -92% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
191.7K
Each employee generates -92% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 41.7K
Each employee generates -110% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
25.2K
Each employee generates -127% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.1M
Each employee generates -127% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BRY
DORCHESTER MINERALS UNT (XNAS:DMLP)
CALUMET SPECIALTY PRODUCTS UNT (XNAS:CLMT)
SITIO ROYALTIES CORP. (XNYS:STR)
MATRIX SERVICE COMPANY (XNAS:MTRX)
BLUEKNIGHT ENERGY PARTNERS, L.P. (XNAS:BKEPP)
TRCH
TORM PLC (XNAS:TRMD)
TARGET HOSPITALITY CORP. (XNAS:TH)
GREEN PLAINS PARTNERS UNT (XNAS:GPP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�29%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
809.58M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
469.10M
340.49M
-
85.46M
87.34M
1.88M
49.62M
136.96M
-
31.15M
256.02M
234.59M
203.53M
- 51030.00K
- 52592.00K
- 1562.00K
- 51030.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
- 2002.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.69M
Change in Working Capital :
- 36439.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 25648.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
140.10M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
48.53M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 18932.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
17.96M
-
17.96M
111.96M
12.06M
24.51M
166.49M
1.32B
-
-
-
171.00K
5.04M
1.33B
-
1.49B
23.60M
1.78M
11.10M
-
221.18M
246.56M
394.85M
222.90M
617.75M
-
864.30M
86.00K
- 224283.00K
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
606.05M
630.43M
1.49B
-
396.63M
378.7M
-
- 17628.00K
- 36560.00K
- 107000.00K
-
-
- 5197.00K
102.90M
- 9293.00K
-
2.68M
17.96M
15.28M
48.53M
- 17628.00K
30.90M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BRY
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$10.40
$12.00
$13.84
$15.96
$18.41