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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Becton, Dickinson And Company (XNYS:BDX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BDX
Name:
BECTON, DICKINSON AND COMPANY (XNYS:BDX)
Sector:
486.00M
Industry:
Medical Instruments & Supplies
CEO:
Mr. Thomas Polen
Total Employees:
75,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 828.30% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BECTON, DICKINSON AND COMPANY(BDX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & SUPPLIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
252.84
One Month Price Target:
$253.65
Six Month Price Target :
$257.72
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$262.61
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$252.13
Price Upper limit ($) :
$253.6
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$243.95
This week:
$232.95
This month :
$213.06
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
71.89B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
285.20M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.37%
-11.8%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$294.13
$275.31
$211.55
$230.37
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$269.18
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$265.16
$236.45
$240.52
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BDX
Sharpe Ratio:
0.08%
Comparison:
BDX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -95.16% lower than the industry
& is -96.60% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BDX
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.05%
Monthly returns:
0.20%
Yearly returns:
14.68%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -83.36% below industry average
Classification:
BDX, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.38
Statistical test of Returns:
BDX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.72%
Weekly Volatility:
3.84%
Monthly Volatility:
7.68%
Yearly Volatility:
26.61%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.89%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -48.05% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.52%
Weekly VaR:
-7.87%
Monthly VaR:
-15.73%
How Much Can the price of
BDX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-14%
Worst case (decline):
-54.50%
This translates to price declining to:
$217.95
This translates to price declining to:
$115.04
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BDX is a 11.04% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -4.87% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -40.82% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BDX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.58
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.575
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.813
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.351
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.346
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.462
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.002
Beta is -42.62% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.989
Beta is -41.88% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
3.33%
Sustainable growth rate is -77.36% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.046
Alpha is -197.68% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -296% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BDX
Equity cost of capital:
0.071
Equity cost of capital is -28.59% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.33%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.44%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.93%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.93%
WACC is -38.06% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$70.24
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.98
Annual revenue growth rate is -74.24% below industry average
EPS:
$6.34
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
13.43%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 16.17% higher than the Medical Instruments & Supplies industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.52
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 0.96%
Equity growth rate per share is 272.29% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$57.36
EBITDA per share
$16.61
Valuation Analysis Today of
BDX
P/E Ratio:
42.83
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
27.65
P/E ratio is 54.91% higher than main peers & is -14.14% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $316.30
BDX is -20.06% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $75.27
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $56.96
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.6
Price to sales ratio is -51.46% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.98
Price to free cash flow: 38.76
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
500.74%
Net income growth rate is -573.85% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 14.11%
Dividend yeild: 1.36%
Previous Dividend: $0.87
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.87
Previous Dividend: $3.44
Expected next dividend best case: $0.90
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.84
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.83
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.99%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/07/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/09/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-08--$0.87
2021-12-09--$0.87
2021-06-08--$0.83
2022-03-09--$0.87
2021-09-08--$0.83
2021-03-09--$0.83
Dividend growth rate is -150.12% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
67.71%
Net debt to equity ratio:
64.24%
Debt to assets ratio:
30.66%
Net debt to assets ratio:
29.09%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -14.59% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.15
Interest coverage ratio is -84.28% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-1.78%
Annual debt growth is -102% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.448
Statistical significance of correlation:
BDX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.505
Stock price is -11.31% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.505
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.025
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.025
Kurtosis
9.007
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.46
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BDX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
183%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.93%
Operating profit margin is -3.41% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
183%
Effective Tax Rate:
5.82%
Effective tax rate is -82.30% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.95%
Return on equity (ROE) is -117.44% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.60%
Return on assets (ROA) is -49.74% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.23
Current ratio is -66.22% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
65.1
Cash conversion cycle is 23.56% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.32%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
267.1K
Each employee generates -24% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
63.2K
Each employee generates -43% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
25.6K
Each employee generates -67% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
6.5K
Each employee generates -213% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
600.7K
Each employee generates -213% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 22.17%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 8462.97% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
BDX
EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORPORATION (XNYS:EW)
CIGNA CORPORATION (XNYS:CI)
HCA HEALTHCARE, INC. (XNYS:HCA)
IQVIA HOLDINGS INC (XNYS:IQV)
HUMANA INC. (XNYS:HUM)
STRYKER CORPORATION (XNYS:SYK)
ZOETIS INC. (XNYS:ZTS)
CENTENE CORPORATION (XNYS:CNC)
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�29%
Buy�13%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
20.03B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
10.86B
9.18B
1.40B
-
5.03B
1.24B
2.72B
9.14B
8.00M
425.00M
2.27B
4.74B
2.59B
1.92B
2.03B
118.00M
1.92B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
557.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 69000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
83.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 278000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 296000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
674.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 415000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
1.90B
8.00M
1.91B
2.18B
3.04B
1.18B
8.31B
6.38B
24.12B
12.61B
-
-
1.95B
45.06B
-
53.36B
-
1.06B
-
-
5.67B
6.74B
16.36B
1.08B
22.47B
-
29.20B
365.00M
14.23B
- 2043000.0K
11.60B
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
17.35B
24.16B
53.36B
-
17.42B
15.5B
-
- 271000.00K
- 686000.00K
-
-
-
- 271000.00K
- 56000.00K
- 327000.00K
- 6000.00K
- 345000.00K
2.05B
2.39B
674.00M
- 188000.00K
486.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BDX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$290.86
$302.10
$313.77
$325.90
$338.49