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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Barrett Business Services, Inc. (XNAS:BBSI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BBSI
Name:
BARRETT BUSINESS SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:BBSI)
Sector:
- 36963.00K
Industry:
Staffing & Employment Services
CEO:
Mr. Gary Kramer
Total Employees:
121,660
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -255.77% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BARRETT BUSINESS SERVICES, INC.(BBSI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND STAFFING & EMPLOYMENT SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
79.56
One Month Price Target:
$80.17
Six Month Price Target :
$83.22
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$86.87
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$79.18
Price Upper limit ($) :
$79.98
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$74.8
This week:
$68.91
This month :
$58.26
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
574.11M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
7.09M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
25.34%
-24.18%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$101.67
$91.58
$57.45
$67.54
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$88.29
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$86.13
$70.80
$72.99
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BBSI
Sharpe Ratio:
0.57%
Comparison:
BBSI, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -66.33% lower than the industry
& is -75.02% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BBSI
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.13%
Monthly returns:
0.51%
Yearly returns:
14.00%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -56.24% below industry average
Classification:
BBSI, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.73
Statistical test of Returns:
BBSI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.93%
Weekly Volatility:
6.55%
Monthly Volatility:
13.09%
Yearly Volatility:
45.36%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.93%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -68.25% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.99%
Weekly VaR:
-13.39%
Monthly VaR:
-26.78%
How Much Can the price of
BBSI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-92.75%
This translates to price declining to:
$60.95
This translates to price declining to:
$5.76
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BBSI is a 88.98% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 61.90% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 2.11% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BBSI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.37
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.79
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.117
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.299
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.543
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.796
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.612
Beta is -15.13% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.192
Beta is 14.70% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.95%
Sustainable growth rate is -21.67% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.064
Alpha is -338.78% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -407% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BBSI
Equity cost of capital:
0.125
Equity cost of capital is 10.61% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.89%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-3.30%
After-tax cost of debt:
-2.60%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-2.60%
WACC is 23.03% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$138.69
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.04
Annual revenue growth rate is -110.26% below industry average
EPS:
$5.64
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-8.28%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -204.48% lower than the Staffing & Employment Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 20.18%
Equity growth rate per share is 708.94% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$1.83
EBITDA per share
$8.74
Valuation Analysis Today of
BBSI
P/E Ratio:
13.51
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
31.9
P/E ratio is -57.64% lower than main peers & is -26.08% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $103.11
BBSI is -22.84% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $20.93
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $9.59
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.57
Price to sales ratio is -78.29% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.04
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-2.58%
Net income growth rate is -168.23% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.19%
Dividend yeild: 1.51%
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.30
Previous Dividend: $1.20
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.30
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/01/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 18/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/01/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/03/2022
Previous dividend record date: 20/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/02/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-19--$0.30
2021-11-18--$0.30
2021-05-20--$0.30
2022-03-17--$0.30
2021-08-19--$0.30
2021-03-18--$0.30
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
7.00%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-14.25%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.66%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-3.37%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.54% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-95.88
Interest coverage ratio is -428.50% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
83.35%
Annual debt growth is -55% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 21.26%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.415
Statistical significance of correlation:
BBSI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.529
Stock price is -21.58% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.529
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.02
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.034
Kurtosis
20.195
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.25
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BBSI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
87%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
5.10%
Operating profit margin is -27.38% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
87%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.76%
Effective tax rate is -3.43% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
23.11%
Return on equity (ROE) is -2.79% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.47%
Return on assets (ROA) is -23.04% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
1.32
Current ratio is -21.80% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
92.6
Cash conversion cycle is 527.33% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.26%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
8.1K
Each employee generates -98% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
0.5K
Each employee generates -99% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
0.4K
Each employee generates -98% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 0.3K
Each employee generates -97% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.2K
Each employee generates -97% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BBSI
TITAN MACHINERY INC. (XNAS:TITN)
Tecnoglass Inc (XNYS:TGLS)
FSAC
RILYH
THCAW
GEFEN INTERNATIONAL A.I. LTD (XASX:GFN)
DXP ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:DXPE)
RADA ELECTRONIC INDUSTRIES LTD (XNAS:RADA)
Air T Funding (XNAS:AIRTP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
983.10M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
769.10M
214.00M
-
843.82M
158.32M
-
211.00K
158.53M
-
- 646.00K
5.54M
61.94M
50.14M
42.92M
57.05M
14.13M
42.92M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.51M
Differed Income Tax :
25.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.83M
Change in Working Capital :
- 35994.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 100589.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 17841.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.13M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 30209.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 6754.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
46.07M
81.33M
127.41M
256.30M
-
132.67M
516.37M
59.96M
47.82M
-
-
3.78M
156.59M
268.15M
-
784.52M
4.33M
6.60M
1.90M
-
380.97M
391.90M
13.00M
186.75M
206.90M
-
598.81M
73.00K
168.29M
- 13279.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
927.63M
185.71M
784.52M
-
19.60M
- 26471.0K
10.80M
16.46M
20.51M
- 3510.00K
-
- 8575.00K
- 2229.00K
226.00K
- 14088.00K
-
- 23792.00K
54.84M
78.63M
- 30209.00K
- 6754.00K
- 36963.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BBSI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$87.30
$123.41
$134.75
$147.14
$160.66