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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Bar Harbor Bankshares (XNYS:BHB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BHB
Name:
BAR HARBOR BANKSHARES (XNYS:BHB)
Sector:
5.60M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Curtis Simard
Total Employees:
489
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 629.22% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BAR HARBOR BANKSHARES(BHB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
27.44
One Month Price Target:
$27.57
Six Month Price Target :
$28.22
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$29.01
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$27.31
Price Upper limit ($) :
$27.61
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$25.63
This week:
$23.39
This month :
$19.34
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
403.34M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
15.04M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.32%
-16.4%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$35.84
$31.98
$19.04
$22.90
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$30.73
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$29.90
$24.14
$24.98
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BHB
Sharpe Ratio:
1.71%
Comparison:
BHB, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 39.39% higher than the industry
& is -24.87% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BHB
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.32%
Monthly returns:
1.29%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 41.69% above industry average
Classification:
BHB, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.98
Statistical test of Returns:
BHB has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.25%
Weekly Volatility:
7.26%
Monthly Volatility:
14.51%
Yearly Volatility:
50.27%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.17%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -33.12% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.60%
Weekly VaR:
-14.76%
Monthly VaR:
-29.52%
How Much Can the price of
BHB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$20.48
This translates to price declining to:
$4.12
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BHB is a 108.33% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 78.48% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 13.60% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BHB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.85
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.647
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.915
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.627
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.788
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.038
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.061
Beta is -19.96% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -11.86% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
5.99%
Sustainable growth rate is -34.41% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.065
Alpha is 459.55% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 413% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BHB
Equity cost of capital:
0.090
Equity cost of capital is -8.03% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.62%
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.09%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.60%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.60%
WACC is -23.36% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.16
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.01
Annual revenue growth rate is -39.67% below industry average
EPS:
$2.58
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
21.37%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 77.72% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.31
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 17.33%
Equity growth rate per share is -55.25% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$11.88
EBITDA per share
$4.27
Valuation Analysis Today of
BHB
P/E Ratio:
10.24
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
7.09
P/E ratio is 44.30% higher than main peers & is -17.50% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $32.01
BHB is -14.29% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $29.54
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $13.79
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3
Price to sales ratio is -29.96% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.01
Price to free cash flow: 87.95
Price to free cash flow ratio is -41.80% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
21.21%
Net income growth rate is -61.49% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 9.25%
Dividend yeild: 3.57%
Previous Dividend: $0.26
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.26
Previous Dividend: $0.98
Expected next dividend best case: $0.27
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.25
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.23
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.74%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 20/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 17/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 17/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 21/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-16--$0.26
2021-11-16--$0.24
2021-05-17--$0.24
2022-02-16--$0.24
2021-08-16--$0.24
2021-02-17--$0.22
Dividend growth rate is -92.61% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
43.91%
Net debt to equity ratio:
16.62%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.84%
Net debt to assets ratio:
1.83%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.09% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.07
Interest coverage ratio is 511.33% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.575
Statistical significance of correlation:
BHB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 14.77% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.009
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.017
Kurtosis
8.041
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.353
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BHB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
19.40%
Effective tax rate is -9.95% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.57%
Return on equity (ROE) is -19.82% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.05%
Return on assets (ROA) is -54.24% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 34.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.17%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
281.7K
Each employee generates -26% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
131.3K
Each employee generates -42% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
79.6K
Each employee generates -44% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
11.4K
Each employee generates -86% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.6M
Each employee generates -86% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BHB
abrdn Emg Mkts Eq Inc (XNYS:AEF)
Clough Glbl Opptys (XNYS:GLO)
Cornerstone Total Return (XNYS:CRF)
Allspring Multi-Sector (XNYS:ERC)
Invesco Adv Muni II (XNYS:VKI)
BLUE RIDGE BANKSHARES, INC. (XNYS:BRBS)
Neuberger Municipal (XNYS:NBH)
Eaton Vance CA Muni Bd (XNYS:EVM)
GAMCO Gl Gld NR & Inc (XNYS:GGN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
137.77M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
49.76M
51.27M
1.51M
-
-
109.12M
12.67M
3.21M
64.19M
-
38.93M
48.30M
9.37M
38.93M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.30M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
454.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 6453.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 6469.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.79M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
6.20M
Investments in PP&E:
- 602.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 47721.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
111.05M
603.91M
714.96M
-
-
-
-
48.89M
119.48M
6.50M
603.91M
-
-
778.78M
4.47B
3.69B
-
-
-
-
-
-
178.70M
-
178.70M
3.46B
3.29B
-
-
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
407.00M
3.69B
1.21B
178.70M
67.7M
27.67M
- 121187.00K
- 141840.00K
- 5.00K
-
-
- 3603.00K
- 93.00K
- 3701.00K
-
- 139340.00K
111.05M
250.39M
6.20M
- 602.00K
5.60M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BHB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$31.70
$33.51
$35.42
$37.44
$39.58