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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Banner Corporation (XNAS:BANR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BANR
Name:
BANNER CORPORATION (XNAS:BANR)
Sector:
47.35M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Mark Grescovich
Total Employees:
1,891
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -636.38% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BANNER CORPORATION(BANR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
59.43
One Month Price Target:
$59.75
Six Month Price Target :
$61.34
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$63.26
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$59.15
Price Upper limit ($) :
$59.78
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$55.64
This week:
$50.96
This month :
$42.49
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.00B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
34.19M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.22%
-14.53%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$77.01
$68.94
$41.85
$49.92
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$66.31
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$64.59
$52.53
$54.27
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BANR
Sharpe Ratio:
1.63%
Comparison:
BANR, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 32.35% higher than the industry
& is -28.67% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BANR
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.30%
Monthly returns:
1.20%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 31.50% above industry average
Classification:
BANR, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.44
Statistical test of Returns:
BANR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.13%
Weekly Volatility:
7.00%
Monthly Volatility:
14.01%
Yearly Volatility:
48.53%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.45%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -85.49% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.37%
Weekly VaR:
-14.25%
Monthly VaR:
-28.51%
How Much Can the price of
BANR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$44.86
This translates to price declining to:
$8.91
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BANR is a 101.19% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 72.36% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 9.67% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BANR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.96
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.772
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.092
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.857
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.641
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.021
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.93
Beta is 3.03% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -0.54% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.65%
Sustainable growth rate is -5.20% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.046
Alpha is 299.31% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 295% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BANR
Equity cost of capital:
0.097
Equity cost of capital is -0.37% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.69%
Before-tax cost of debt:
9.26%
After-tax cost of debt:
7.32%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
7.32%
WACC is -15.72% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$16.81
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.3
Annual revenue growth rate is -77.72% below industry average
EPS:
$5.71
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
11.10%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -7.65% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -9.63%
Equity growth rate per share is -124.88% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$6.63
EBITDA per share
$8.27
Valuation Analysis Today of
BANR
P/E Ratio:
10.72
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17.71
P/E ratio is -39.46% lower than main peers & is -13.59% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $70.85
BANR is -16.12% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $631.09
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $375.07
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.54
Price to sales ratio is -17.31% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.3
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is -7.52% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
36.92%
Net income growth rate is -32.97% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.67%
Dividend yeild: 2.86%
Previous Dividend: $0.44
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.44
Previous Dividend: $1.70
Expected next dividend best case: $0.59
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.29
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.47
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 9.22%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/01/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/03/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-02--$0.44
2021-11-01--$0.41
2021-05-04--$0.41
2022-02-02--$0.44
2021-08-02--$0.41
2021-02-03--$0.41
Dividend growth rate is -60.86% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
14.48%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-112.67%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.35%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-10.50%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.19% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
13.48
Interest coverage ratio is 1526.38% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-10.14%
Annual debt growth is -3303% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 30.74%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.533
Statistical significance of correlation:
BANR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 6.54% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.025
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.046
Kurtosis
7.006
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.809
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BANR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
18.38%
Effective tax rate is -14.69% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.67%
Return on equity (ROE) is 6.22% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.18%
Return on assets (ROA) is -48.75% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.05%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
303.8K
Each employee generates -20% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
149.6K
Each employee generates -34% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
104.8K
Each employee generates -26% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
25.0K
Each employee generates -70% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.5M
Each employee generates -70% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BANR
SEACOAST BANKING CORPORATION OF FLORIDA (XNAS:SBCF)
PATRIA INVESTMENTS LTD. (XNAS:PAX)
VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:VRTS)
TRUSTMARK CORPORATION (XNAS:TRMK)
HEARTLAND FINANCIAL USA, INC. (XNAS:HTLF)
StepStone Group Inc (XNAS:STEP)
PSACU
COLUMBIA FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:CLBK)
STATE AUTO FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:STFC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
574.57M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
269.40M
274.63M
5.23M
-
-
518.87M
20.99M
19.11M
282.88M
-
198.16M
242.78M
44.63M
198.16M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
5.59M
Differed Income Tax :
8.46M
Stock Based Compensation :
2.08M
Change in Working Capital :
- 14666.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
5.23M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
50.65M
Investments in PP&E:
- 3306.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 321704.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.99B
3.15B
5.14B
41.83M
-
-
-
195.39M
373.12M
13.43M
4.19B
-
-
4.77B
21.55B
16.78B
-
-
-
-
-
-
226.51M
-
226.51M
15.44B
15.21B
1.30B
419.66M
- 154091.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
1.56B
16.78B
7.34B
226.51M
- 1761877.0K
127.28M
- 80512.00K
- 278245.00K
- 100518.00K
-
-
- 15200.00K
197.40M
81.68M
-
- 145912.00K
1.99B
2.13B
50.65M
- 3306.00K
47.35M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BANR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$63.58
$90.09
$95.89
$102.06
$108.64