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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Bank Ozk (XNAS:OZK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
OZK
Name:
Bank Ozk (XNAS:OZK)
Sector:
166.52M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. George Gleason
Total Employees:
2,542
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -4510.01% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BANK OZK(OZK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
40.18
One Month Price Target:
$40.5
Six Month Price Target :
$42.09
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$44.
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$40.01
Price Upper limit ($) :
$40.42
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$37.75
This week:
$34.76
This month :
$29.33
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.17B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
128.71M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.96%
-18.29%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$51.43
$46.24
$28.93
$34.12
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$44.55
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$43.44
$35.80
$36.92
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
OZK
Sharpe Ratio:
2.56%
Comparison:
OZK, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 108.77% higher than the industry
& ratio is 12.52% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
OZK
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.43%
Monthly returns:
1.71%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 87.61% above industry average
Classification:
OZK, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.07
Statistical test of Returns:
OZK has yielded a higher return than the market, the results are statistically significant
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.98%
Weekly Volatility:
6.67%
Monthly Volatility:
13.33%
Yearly Volatility:
46.18%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.45%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -85.05% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.04%
Weekly VaR:
-13.50%
Monthly VaR:
-27.00%
How Much Can the price of
OZK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-93.52%
This translates to price declining to:
$30.98
This translates to price declining to:
$2.61
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
OZK is a 90.53% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 63.23% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 4.35% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
OZK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.42
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.866
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.224
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.178
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.775
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.975
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.953
Beta is 48.56% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 46.87% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.04%
Sustainable growth rate is -0.96% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.076
Alpha is 557.26% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 485% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
OZK
Equity cost of capital:
0.128
Equity cost of capital is 31.73% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.69%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.33%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.21%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.21%
WACC is 8.34% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.63
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.1
Annual revenue growth rate is -65.46% below industry average
EPS:
$4.35
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
10.64%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -11.46% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.17
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 42.82%
Equity growth rate per share is 10.57% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$9.51
EBITDA per share
$6.51
Valuation Analysis Today of
OZK
P/E Ratio:
9.38
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.53
P/E ratio is -49.41% lower than main peers & is -24.44% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $53.98
OZK is -25.56% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $25.37
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $11.35
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.66
Price to sales ratio is 8.85% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.1
Price to free cash flow: 9.64
Price to free cash flow ratio is -47.41% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
38.31%
Net income growth rate is -30.43% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.47%
Dividend yeild: 2.95%
Previous Dividend: $0.31
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.31
Previous Dividend: $1.19
Expected next dividend best case: $0.32
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.30
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.28
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.18%
Expected next dividend payment date: 21/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 14/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 22/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 04/01/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-13--$0.31
2021-10-14--$0.29
2021-04-09--$0.28
2022-01-13--$0.30
2021-07-09--$0.29
2021-01-14--$0.28
Dividend growth rate is -90.75% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
26.09%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-8.14%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.61%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.44%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.23% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
12.86
Interest coverage ratio is 1451.57% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
11.13%
Annual debt growth is 3414% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.613
Statistical significance of correlation:
OZK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 22.44% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.028
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.048
Kurtosis
6.534
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.225
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
OZK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
22.82%
Effective tax rate is 5.90% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.01%
Return on equity (ROE) is 0.64% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.12%
Return on assets (ROA) is -8.01% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.69%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
437.1K
Each employee generates 15% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
329.8K
Each employee generates 46% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
221.5K
Each employee generates 57% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
65.5K
Each employee generates -21% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.0M
Each employee generates -21% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
OZK
TFS FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:TFSL)
ENSTAR GROUP LIMITED (XNAS:ESGR)
GLACIER BANCORP, INC. (XNYS:GBCI)
PACWEST BANCORP (XNAS:PACW)
VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (XNAS:VLY)
UNITED BANKSHARES, INC. (XNAS:UBSI)
CFACU
BOK FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:BOKF)
SOUTHSTATE CORPORATION (XNAS:SSB)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.11B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
270.94M
274.66M
3.72M
-
-
1.07B
65.19M
43.52M
838.28M
-
563.09M
729.58M
166.48M
563.09M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.16M
Differed Income Tax :
81.69M
Stock Based Compensation :
3.87M
Change in Working Capital :
- 53524.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 161.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 122.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
175.58M
Investments in PP&E:
- 9062.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 21347.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 384876.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.61B
3.73B
5.33B
83.11M
-
-
-
693.75M
-
-
3.73B
-
-
5.09B
31.65B
26.56B
226.34M
-
-
-
-
-
1.22B
-
1.22B
23.09B
21.87B
1.23M
2.47B
- 80928.0K
1.96B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
4.69B
26.56B
7.46B
1.22B
- 381961.0K
436.78M
- 615306.00K
- 593810.00K
-
-
- 136964.00K
- 42049.00K
149.22M
- 29789.00K
-
- 448017.00K
1.61B
2.05B
175.58M
- 9062.00K
166.52M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
OZK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$44.22
$66.89
$73.25
$80.22
$87.85