_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Bank Of Marin Bancorp (XNAS:BMRC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BMRC
Name:
BANK OF MARIN BANCORP (XNAS:BMRC)
Sector:
11.48M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Russell Colombo
Total Employees:
328
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -101.43% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BANK OF MARIN BANCORP(BMRC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
30.44
One Month Price Target:
$30.56
Six Month Price Target :
$31.17
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$31.9
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$30.3
Price Upper limit ($) :
$30.57
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$28.79
This week:
$26.74
This month :
$23.05
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
484.95M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
16.02M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.15%
-15.34%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$38.12
$34.64
$22.76
$26.24
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$33.51
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.77
$27.36
$28.11
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BMRC
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.20%
Comparison:
BMRC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -197.50% lower than the industry
& is -152.55% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BMRC
Daily returns:
-0.02%
Weekly returns:
-0.11%
Monthly returns:
-0.45%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -149.92% below industry average
Classification:
BMRC, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.87
Statistical test of Returns:
BMRC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.63%
Weekly Volatility:
5.89%
Monthly Volatility:
11.78%
Yearly Volatility:
40.80%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.87%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -66.98% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.43%
Weekly VaR:
-12.14%
Monthly VaR:
-24.29%
How Much Can the price of
BMRC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-84.14%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.82
This translates to price declining to:
$4.83
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BMRC is a 71.42% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 46.86% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -7.82% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BMRC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.71
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.564
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.798
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.683
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.524
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.83
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.733
Beta is -2.63% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -25.92% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.74%
Sustainable growth rate is -48.08% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.135
Alpha is -1262.43% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -859% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BMRC
Equity cost of capital:
0.080
Equity cost of capital is -17.54% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.69%
Before-tax cost of debt:
8.47%
After-tax cost of debt:
6.69%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
6.69%
WACC is -30.09% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.74
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.16
Annual revenue growth rate is -45.86% below industry average
EPS:
$2.32
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-2.87%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -123.88% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.67
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 51.64%
Equity growth rate per share is 33.37% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$1.61
EBITDA per share
$3.27
Valuation Analysis Today of
BMRC
P/E Ratio:
13.19
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
36.12
P/E ratio is -63.48% lower than main peers & is 6.31% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $28.79
BMRC is 5.74% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $38.01
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $14.64
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.93
Price to sales ratio is -8.06% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.16
Price to free cash flow: 11.41
Price to free cash flow ratio is -25.36% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
4.41%
Net income growth rate is -91.99% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 11.00%
Dividend yeild: 3.15%
Previous Dividend: $0.24
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.24
Previous Dividend: $0.96
Expected next dividend best case: $0.25
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.23
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.23
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.39%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/04/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 21/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/06/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 22/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-05--$0.24
2021-11-04--$0.24
2021-04-29--$0.23
2022-02-03--$0.24
2021-07-29--$0.24
2021-02-04--$0.23
Dividend growth rate is -94.10% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
6.12%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-34.53%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.59%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-3.35%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.64% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
24.02
Interest coverage ratio is 2798.04% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-13.54%
Annual debt growth is -4376% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.12%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.498
Statistical significance of correlation:
BMRC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -0.58% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.014
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.021
Kurtosis
8.562
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.479
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BMRC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.00%
Operating profit margin is -66.49% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
26.25%
Effective tax rate is 21.84% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
8.26%
Return on equity (ROE) is -30.72% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.80%
Return on assets (ROA) is -65.18% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.70%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
378.0K
Each employee generates 0% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
159.6K
Each employee generates -29% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
105.9K
Each employee generates -25% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
35.0K
Each employee generates -58% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
5.7M
Each employee generates -58% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BMRC
MVB FINANCIAL CORP. (XNAS:MVBF)
OXFORD LANE CAPITAL CORP. (XNAS:OXLCM)
FARMERS NATIONAL BANC CORP. (XNAS:FMNB)
ONE EQUITY PARTNERS OPEN WATER I CORP. (XNAS:OEPW)
CAPITAL SOUTHWEST CORPORATION (XNAS:CSWC)
KVSB
DONEGAL GROUP INC. (XNAS:DGICB)
GUARANTY BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:GNTY)
NORTH ATLANTIC ACQUISITION CORPORATION (XNAS:NAAC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
123.99M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
53.68M
54.35M
669.00K
-
-
115.00M
2.18M
3.04M
52.34M
-
34.75M
47.12M
12.37M
34.75M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.88M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
244.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 2107.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
11.48M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 95932.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
170.90M
955.46M
1.13B
62.40M
-
-
-
30.78M
72.75M
6.23M
1.75B
-
-
1.86B
6.19B
4.33B
22.94M
-
-
-
-
-
25.74M
-
25.74M
3.94B
3.91B
213.20M
246.51M
- 39307.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
420.41M
4.33B
2.70B
25.74M
- 145162.0K
42.97M
- 183652.00K
- 236618.00K
- 31.00K
-
-
- 3822.00K
52.25M
48.40M
-
- 176740.00K
170.90M
347.64M
11.48M
-
11.48M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BMRC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$32.06
$50.01
$52.40
$54.92
$57.55