Bank First Corporation (XNAS:BFC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today

Primary Facts

BFC

Name:

BANK FIRST CORPORATION (XNAS:BFC)

Sector:

1.48M

Industry:

Banks�Regional

CEO:

Mr. Michael Molepske

Total Employees:

287

Our Technological Advancement Rating

Our Rating:

Technological advancement compared to industry is -42.42% lower

ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BANK FIRST CORPORATION(BFC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022

Primary Targets/Price Insights

Previous Close ($) :

78.9

One Month Price Target:

$79.02

Six Month Price Target :

$79.6

Likely Price in One Year's Time:

Ticker:

$80.31

Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)

$78.62

Price Upper limit ($) :

$79.26

Price Lower limit ($) :

Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)

Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:

Today:

$75.05

This week:

$70.3

This month :

$61.7

Other Primary facts

Market Cap:

700.32M

Market Cap Classification:

Small Cap

Number of Shares

IPO Date:

9.04M

Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)

Highest Daily Appreciation:

12.72%

-18.98%

Worst Daily Decline:

Our Options Trading Entry Points

Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time

Low risk (<2%) entry points

Buy Call:

Sell Call:

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$96.74

$88.54

$61.06

$69.26

Medium risk (<10%) entry points

Buy Call

Sell Call

$85.87

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$84.12

$71.91

$73.68

These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.

Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of

BFC

Sharpe Ratio:

1.75%

Comparison:

BFC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns

Sharpe ratio is 42.26% higher than the industry

& is -23.33% lower than the market/S&P 500 average

Average Returns/Yield of

BFC

Daily returns:

0.05%

Weekly returns:

0.25%

Monthly returns:

1.02%

Yearly returns:

10.91%

Comparison of returns:

Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 11.64% above industry average

Classification:

BFC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns

Results of T-Test of Returns:

0.44

Statistical test of Returns:

BFC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market

Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)

Daily Volatility:

2.40%

Weekly Volatility:

5.36%

Monthly Volatility:

10.72%

Yearly Volatility:

37.15%

Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)

Average Volatility of this Week:

2.31%

Volatility in last five trading days has been -3.51% below long-term volatility

Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)

Daily VaR:

-4.87%

Weekly VaR:

-10.90%

Monthly VaR:

-21.80%

How Much Can the price of

BFC

Decline in a Recession?

Likely price decline in a recession:

Base case (decline):

-19%

Worst case (decline):

-75.51%

This translates to price declining to:

$64.15

This translates to price declining to:

$19.32

Severe Crash Probability

Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)

What is Value at Risk (VaR)?

Risk Fundamentals

BFC is a 53.85% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 31.80% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)

Risk (measured by volatility) is -16.05% below industry average

Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks

Beta Examination of

BFC

Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.27

Expected beta in 1 year's time:

0.471

Expected beta in 3 year's time:

0.666

Unlevered (debt free) Beta:

0.251

Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):

0.638

Beta in relation to all global stocks::

0.86

Beta Comparison & Analysis

Beta of competitors/peers::

1.192

Beta is -77.68% lower than peers

Average Industry Beta:

0.964

Beta is -72.41% below industry average

Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis

Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:

12.13%

Sustainable growth rate is 32.84% above industry average

Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis

Alpha provided:

0.072

Alpha is 521.45% above industry average alpha yield

Alpha is 459% higher than market/& is unsustainably high

Analysis of Cost of Capital of

BFC

Equity cost of capital:

0.050

Equity cost of capital is -49.02% below industry mean WACC

Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:

4.69%

Before-tax cost of debt:

31.27%

After-tax cost of debt:

24.70%

Overall debt rating:

Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade

Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):

24.70%

WACC is -55.25% below industry mean WACC

Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis

Revenue per share:

$11.85

Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):

2.24

Annual revenue growth rate is 34.02% above the industry average

EPS:

$2.84

Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):

-10.11%

Expected future EPS growth rate is -184.09% lower than the Banks�Regional industry

Free cash flow (FCF) per share:

$3.69

Balance sheet equity growth per share: 72.90%

Equity growth rate per share is 88.26% higher than the industry

Debt per share

$2.79

EBITDA per share

$7.66

Valuation Analysis Today of

BFC

P/E Ratio:

13.57

P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:

9.77

P/E ratio is 38.94% higher than main peers & is 9.36% higher than the industry

Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $35.24

BFC is 123.89% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio

P/S (Price to Sales ratio):

6.66

Price to sales ratio is 55.72% above the industry mean

P/B (Price to book value ratio):

2.24

Price to free cash flow: 21.39

Price to free cash flow ratio is -40.03% lower than the industry

Net income growth rate (3Y):

60.11%

Net income growth rate is 9.14% higher than the average industry net income growth rate

Dividend Analysis

Dividend payout rate: 3.79%

Dividend yeild: 1.47%

Previous Dividend: $0.22

Previous adjusted dividend: $0.22

Previous Dividend: $1.16

Expected next dividend best case: $0.29

Expected next dividend worst case: $0.15

Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.24

Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 8.71%

Expected next dividend payment date: 10/04/2022

Expected next dividend record date: 20/09/2022

Previous dividend payment date: 07/06/2022

Previous dividend record date: 22/06/2022

Dividend History:

2022-06-21--$0.22

2021-12-21--$0.22

2021-06-22--$0.21

2022-03-22--$0.22

2021-09-21--$0.29

2021-03-23--$0.21

Dividend growth rate is -63.03% lower than the industry average

In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis

Debt to equity ratio:

7.93%

Net debt to equity ratio:

-25.80%

Debt to assets ratio:

0.86%

Net debt to assets ratio:

-2.81%

Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.48% below industry average

Ability to repay debt:

Interest coverage ratio:

8.78

Interest coverage ratio is 958.83% more than industry average

Looking forward:

Debt growth rate:

0.00%

Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 98.34%

Analysis of Key Statistics

Correlation of price movement with the market:

0.555

Statistical significance of correlation:

BFC has a statistically significant correlation with the market

Average Correlation of the industry with the market:

0.501

Stock price is 10.93% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation

R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):

0.501

Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):

0.006

Covariance of price movement with the market:

0.009

Kurtosis

11.464

Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns

Skewness of returns:

-0.13

Returns are, approximately, symmetrical

Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of

BFC

Gross Profit Margin Ratio:

100%

Operating Profit Margin Ratio:

13.68%

Operating profit margin is -61.79% lower than the industry

Net Profit Margin Ratio:

100%

Effective Tax Rate:

24.43%

Effective tax rate is 13.37% higher than the industry

Dupont Method

Net Profit Margin

Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):

ROA

13.86%

Return on equity (ROE) is 16.17% higher than the industry

Financial Leverage

Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):

1.51%

Return on assets (ROA) is -34.56% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage:

1.0x

Current Ratio:

Cash Conversion Cycle (days):

The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.6 years

Stock based compensation to net income ratio:

0.73%

In-depth Efficiency Analysis

Revenue generated per employee:

373.2K

Each employee generates -2% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee

EBITDA generated per employee:

241.4K

Each employee generates 7% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee

Profit generated per employee:

153.7K

Each employee generates 9% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee

Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:

5.2K

Each employee generates -94% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Assets/Capital per employee

1.7M

Each employee generates -94% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Research & Development (R&D) Analysis

Competitors/Peer firms of

BFC

SONDER HOLDINGS INC (XNAS:SOND)

ATLANTIC CAPITAL BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:ACBI)

ATLANTICUS HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNAS:ATLC)

DIAMOND HILL INVESTMENT GROUP, INC. (XNAS:DHIL)

Vector Acquisition Corp II (XNAS:VAQC)

First Community Bankshares, Inc. (XNAS:FCBC)

ACTC

MERCANTILE BANK CORPORATION (XNAS:MBWM)

THE FIRST OF LONG ISLAND CORPORATION (XNAS:FLIC)

Current Analyst Ratings

Strong buy�0%

Buy�0%

RISK CONCERN

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