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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Bank First Corporation (XNAS:BFC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BFC
Name:
BANK FIRST CORPORATION (XNAS:BFC)
Sector:
1.48M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Michael Molepske
Total Employees:
287
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -42.42% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BANK FIRST CORPORATION(BFC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
78.9
One Month Price Target:
$79.02
Six Month Price Target :
$79.6
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$80.31
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$78.62
Price Upper limit ($) :
$79.26
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$75.05
This week:
$70.3
This month :
$61.7
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
700.32M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
9.04M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.72%
-18.98%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$96.74
$88.54
$61.06
$69.26
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$85.87
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$84.12
$71.91
$73.68
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BFC
Sharpe Ratio:
1.75%
Comparison:
BFC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 42.26% higher than the industry
& is -23.33% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BFC
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.25%
Monthly returns:
1.02%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 11.64% above industry average
Classification:
BFC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.44
Statistical test of Returns:
BFC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.40%
Weekly Volatility:
5.36%
Monthly Volatility:
10.72%
Yearly Volatility:
37.15%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.31%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -3.51% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.87%
Weekly VaR:
-10.90%
Monthly VaR:
-21.80%
How Much Can the price of
BFC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-75.51%
This translates to price declining to:
$64.15
This translates to price declining to:
$19.32
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BFC is a 53.85% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 31.80% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -16.05% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BFC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.27
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.471
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.666
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.251
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.638
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.86
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.192
Beta is -77.68% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -72.41% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.13%
Sustainable growth rate is 32.84% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.072
Alpha is 521.45% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 459% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BFC
Equity cost of capital:
0.050
Equity cost of capital is -49.02% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.69%
Before-tax cost of debt:
31.27%
After-tax cost of debt:
24.70%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
24.70%
WACC is -55.25% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.85
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.24
Annual revenue growth rate is 34.02% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.84
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-10.11%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -184.09% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.69
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 72.90%
Equity growth rate per share is 88.26% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$2.79
EBITDA per share
$7.66
Valuation Analysis Today of
BFC
P/E Ratio:
13.57
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
9.77
P/E ratio is 38.94% higher than main peers & is 9.36% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $35.24
BFC is 123.89% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
6.66
Price to sales ratio is 55.72% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.24
Price to free cash flow: 21.39
Price to free cash flow ratio is -40.03% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
60.11%
Net income growth rate is 9.14% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.79%
Dividend yeild: 1.47%
Previous Dividend: $0.22
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.22
Previous Dividend: $1.16
Expected next dividend best case: $0.29
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.15
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.24
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 8.71%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/04/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 20/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 22/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-21--$0.22
2021-12-21--$0.22
2021-06-22--$0.21
2022-03-22--$0.22
2021-09-21--$0.29
2021-03-23--$0.21
Dividend growth rate is -63.03% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
7.93%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-25.80%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.86%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-2.81%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.48% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.78
Interest coverage ratio is 958.83% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 98.34%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.555
Statistical significance of correlation:
BFC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 10.93% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.006
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.009
Kurtosis
11.464
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.13
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BFC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
13.68%
Operating profit margin is -61.79% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.43%
Effective tax rate is 13.37% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.86%
Return on equity (ROE) is 16.17% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.51%
Return on assets (ROA) is -34.56% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.73%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
373.2K
Each employee generates -2% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
241.4K
Each employee generates 7% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
153.7K
Each employee generates 9% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
5.2K
Each employee generates -94% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.7M
Each employee generates -94% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BFC
SONDER HOLDINGS INC (XNAS:SOND)
ATLANTIC CAPITAL BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:ACBI)
ATLANTICUS HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNAS:ATLC)
DIAMOND HILL INVESTMENT GROUP, INC. (XNAS:DHIL)
Vector Acquisition Corp II (XNAS:VAQC)
First Community Bankshares, Inc. (XNAS:FCBC)
ACTC
MERCANTILE BANK CORPORATION (XNAS:MBWM)
THE FIRST OF LONG ISLAND CORPORATION (XNAS:FLIC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
107.12M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
26.46M
-
34.59M
34.86M
267.00K
-
-
98.16M
7.90M
3.02M
69.28M
-
44.11M
58.37M
14.26M
44.11M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
691.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
320.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 7432.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1275.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
2.49M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1005.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 101593.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
107.36M
297.98M
405.34M
-
-
-
-
50.07M
55.36M
9.21M
366.02M
-
-
480.65M
3.41B
2.92B
-
-
-
-
-
-
25.25M
-
25.25M
2.63B
2.61B
85.00K
266.61M
- 4590.0K
56.19M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
318.30M
2.92B
664.00M
25.25M
- 82112.0K
5.88M
- 89334.00K
- 186051.00K
- 1500250.00K
37.00K
- 5018.00K
- 1673.00K
1.50B
- 5937.00K
-
- 189501.00K
107.36M
296.86M
2.49M
- 1005.00K
1.48M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BFC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$65.09
$66.25
$67.43
$68.64
$69.87