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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Bandwidth Inc. (XNAS:BAND) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BAND
Name:
BANDWIDTH INC. (XNAS:BAND)
Sector:
- 12620.00K
Industry:
Software�Infrastructure
CEO:
Mr. David Morken
Total Employees:
1,100
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 99.56% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BANDWIDTH INC.(BAND) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
14.37
One Month Price Target:
$14.44
Six Month Price Target :
$14.78
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$15.18
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$14.26
Price Upper limit ($) :
$14.45
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$13.17
This week:
$11.68
This month :
$8.99
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
391.96M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
25.30M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.83%
-32.1%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$19.96
$17.46
$8.78
$11.28
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$16.64
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$16.11
$12.09
$12.63
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BAND
Sharpe Ratio:
-3.02%
Comparison:
BAND, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -284.46% lower than the industry
& is -232.32% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BAND
Daily returns:
-0.11%
Weekly returns:
-0.56%
Monthly returns:
-2.25%
Yearly returns:
14.38%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -287.60% below industry average
Classification:
BAND, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.31
Statistical test of Returns:
BAND has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.02%
Weekly Volatility:
8.99%
Monthly Volatility:
17.98%
Yearly Volatility:
62.29%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.16%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -21.50% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.37%
Weekly VaR:
-18.72%
Monthly VaR:
-37.44%
How Much Can the price of
BAND
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-34%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$9.43
This translates to price declining to:
$2.16
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BAND is a 164.22% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 126.35% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 20.69% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BAND
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.84
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.642
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.908
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.254
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.552
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.567
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.133
Beta is -25.94% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.112
Beta is -24.50% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.359
Alpha is -1091.82% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -2284% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BAND
Equity cost of capital:
0.089
Equity cost of capital is -17.33% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.69%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.55%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.01%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.01%
WACC is -38.57% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$20.11
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.45
Annual revenue growth rate is 17.12% above the industry average
EPS:
-$1.15
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$25.55
EBITDA per share
$1.09
Valuation Analysis Today of
BAND
P/E Ratio:
773.01
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
131.2
P/E ratio is 489.20% higher than main peers & is 1084.95% higher than the industry
-
BAND is -119.15% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.71
Price to sales ratio is -93.49% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.45
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-217.69%
Net income growth rate is -102.57% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
257.05%
Net debt to equity ratio:
134.32%
Debt to assets ratio:
61.32%
Net debt to assets ratio:
32.04%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -12.06% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
1.65
Interest coverage ratio is -100.78% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
74.85%
Annual debt growth is -30% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.01%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.198
Statistical significance of correlation:
BAND has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
Stock price is -58.80% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.125
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.292
Kurtosis
6.995
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.858
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BAND
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
174%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-1.78%
Operating profit margin is -84.98% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
174%
Effective Tax Rate:
10.32%
Effective tax rate is -67.05% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-11.48%
Return on equity (ROE) is -110.75% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-2.74%
Return on assets (ROA) is -27.71% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.6x
Current Ratio:
4.36
Current ratio is 87.44% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
33.5
Cash conversion cycle is -70.22% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-18.52%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
462.5K
Each employee generates 17% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
25.0K
Each employee generates -62% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 26.2K
Each employee generates -225% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 11.5K
Each employee generates -158% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
582.6K
Each employee generates -158% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 31.18%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -1302.44% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
BAND
ALKAMI TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:ALKT)
SMART GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:SGH)
MESA LABORATORIES, INC. (XNAS:MLAB)
ACM RESEARCH, INC. (XNAS:ACMR)
NAVITAS SEMICONDUCTOR CORPORATION (XNAS:NVTS)
TTM TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:TTMI)
OSI SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:OSIS)
REPAY HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNAS:RPAY)
RADWARE LTD. (XNAS:RDWR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
508.79M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
287.01M
221.79M
64.27M
103.61M
166.59M
62.98M
-
230.86M
-
16.66M
43.05M
27.54M
- 9070.00K
- 28860.00K
- 32182.00K
- 3322.00K
- 28860.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.08M
Differed Income Tax :
94.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
5.35M
Change in Working Capital :
- 17161.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 7416.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
760.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 6695.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 5272.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
316.01M
-
316.01M
68.83M
-
28.46M
413.30M
83.97M
338.07M
202.50M
-
-
16.36M
640.90M
-
1.05B
8.94M
7.38M
17.43M
13.09M
65.31M
94.72M
646.44M
7.11M
707.99M
-
802.71M
25.00K
- 74931.00K
- 23556.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
517.86M
251.49M
1.05B
-
653.82M
337.8M
-
- 653.00K
- 5925.00K
- 48.00K
-
-
-
- 1576.00K
- 1624.00K
- 1056.00K
- 15300.00K
316.99M
332.29M
- 6695.00K
- 5925.00K
- 12620.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BAND
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$15.23
$16.09
$16.99
$17.95
$18.97