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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Bancfirst Corporation (XNAS:BANF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BANF
Name:
BANCFIRST CORPORATION (XNAS:BANF)
Sector:
63.61M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. David Harlow
Total Employees:
1,948
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 143.20% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BANCFIRST CORPORATION(BANF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
105.69
One Month Price Target:
$106.32
Six Month Price Target :
$109.47
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$113.26
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$105.26
Price Upper limit ($) :
$106.4
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$98.89
This week:
$90.49
This month :
$75.28
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.23B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
32.79M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
25.5%
-21.03%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$137.21
$122.56
$74.17
$88.82
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$117.80
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$114.67
$93.54
$96.71
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BANF
Sharpe Ratio:
3.87%
Comparison:
BANF, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 215.32% higher than the industry
& ratio is 69.94% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BANF
Daily returns:
0.13%
Weekly returns:
0.66%
Monthly returns:
2.65%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 191.84% above industry average
Classification:
BANF, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.21
Statistical test of Returns:
BANF has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.20%
Weekly Volatility:
7.15%
Monthly Volatility:
14.30%
Yearly Volatility:
49.52%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.34%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -89.43% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.43%
Weekly VaR:
-14.38%
Monthly VaR:
-28.77%
How Much Can the price of
BANF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$80.41
This translates to price declining to:
$15.85
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BANF is a 103.04% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 73.95% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 11.91% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BANF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.07
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.909
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.285
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.16
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.589
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.919
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.084
Beta is -1.73% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 10.59% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.74%
Sustainable growth rate is 17.63% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.214
Alpha is 1743.90% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1362% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BANF
Equity cost of capital:
0.105
Equity cost of capital is 7.17% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.57%
Before-tax cost of debt:
350.36%
After-tax cost of debt:
276.79%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
276.79%
WACC is -8.44% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$14.87
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.97
Annual revenue growth rate is -12.11% below industry average
EPS:
$4.84
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
6.79%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -43.50% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.92
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 49.23%
Equity growth rate per share is 27.12% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$7.09
Valuation Analysis Today of
BANF
P/E Ratio:
22.34
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
19.04
P/E ratio is 17.32% higher than main peers & is 80.04% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $60.06
BANF is 75.98% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $28.31
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $15.77
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.11
Price to sales ratio is 66.14% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.97
Price to free cash flow: 21.46
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
33.30%
Net income growth rate is -39.53% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.29%
Dividend yeild: 1.36%
Previous Dividend: $0.36
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.36
Previous Dividend: $1.44
Expected next dividend best case: $0.37
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.35
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.34
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.21%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.36
2021-12-30--$0.36
2021-06-29--$0.34
2022-03-30--$0.36
2021-09-29--$0.36
2021-03-30--$0.34
Dividend growth rate is -94.86% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
702.71%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-350.07%
Debt to assets ratio:
87.54%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-32.38%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -47.42% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
20.11
Interest coverage ratio is 2325.91% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
220.80%
Annual debt growth is 69619% higher than industry average debt growth rate
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.465
Statistical significance of correlation:
BANF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -7.09% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.027
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.051
Kurtosis
15.767
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.579
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BANF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
200%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
200%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.46%
Effective tax rate is -9.69% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.79%
Return on equity (ROE) is 15.58% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.28%
Return on assets (ROA) is -44.65% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
8.0x
Current Ratio:
1354.39
Current ratio is 2159.67% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 16.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.28%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
250.4K
Each employee generates -34% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
119.3K
Each employee generates -47% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
82.7K
Each employee generates -42% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
32.7K
Each employee generates -61% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
249.4K
Each employee generates -61% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BANF
UP FINTECH HOLDING LIMITED (XNAS:TIGR)
INSTIL BIO, INC. (XNAS:TIL)
WASHINGTON FEDERAL, INC. (XNAS:WAFD)
TOWNE BANK (XNAS:TOWN)
FIRST FINANCIAL BANCORP. (XNAS:FFBC)
WSFS FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:WSFS)
GCM Grosvenor Inc. (XNAS:GCMG)
LENDINGTREE, INC. (XNAS:TREE)
Renasant Corporation (XNAS:RNST)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
487.71M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
240.75M
-
181.65M
189.25M
7.60M
- 87060.00K
9.48M
322.51M
11.56M
20.98M
232.47M
-
161.03M
199.93M
38.90M
161.03M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
7.53M
Differed Income Tax :
- 968.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
458.00K
Change in Working Capital :
20.68M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
63.61M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
121.80M
Purchases of Investments:
- 966818.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
4.09B
2.92M
4.09B
375.15M
-
-
4.47B
283.84M
176.56M
25.46M
-
-
-
485.86M
8.64B
12.62B
-
3.30M
-
-
-
3.30M
-
11.45B
11.45B
11.46B
11.46B
32.73M
1.00B
- 29516.0K
163.39M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
1.17B
12.62B
-
3.30M
- 4088104.0K
242.86M
- 143807.00K
- 745970.00K
-
-
-
- 11738.00K
2.74B
2.72B
-
2.04B
4.09B
2.05B
63.61M
-
63.61M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BANF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$124.26
$133.16
$142.70
$152.91
$163.87