_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ball Corporation (XNYS:BALL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BLL
Name:
BALL CORPORATION (XNYS:BALL)
Sector:
- 1166000.00K
Industry:
Packaging & Containers
CEO:
Mr. John Hayes
Total Employees:
24,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 5.83% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BALL CORPORATION(BALL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND PACKAGING & CONTAINERS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
55.81
One Month Price Target:
$56.01
Six Month Price Target :
$56.99
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$58.18
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$55.61
Price Upper limit ($) :
$56.02
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$53.31
This week:
$50.22
This month :
$44.62
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
17.46B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
314.31M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.09%
-18.58%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$67.43
$62.14
$44.19
$49.48
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$60.42
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$59.29
$51.19
$52.33
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BLL
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.20%
Comparison:
BLL, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -112.73% lower than the industry
& is -108.74% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BLL
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.02%
Monthly returns:
0.09%
Yearly returns:
11.46%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -90.58% below industry average
Classification:
BLL, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.21
Statistical test of Returns:
BLL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.18%
Weekly Volatility:
4.89%
Monthly Volatility:
9.77%
Yearly Volatility:
33.85%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.94%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -57.10% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.48%
Weekly VaR:
-10.02%
Monthly VaR:
-20.05%
How Much Can the price of
BLL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-69.44%
This translates to price declining to:
$45.94
This translates to price declining to:
$17.05
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BLL is a 41.49% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 21.21% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -8.45% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BLL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.63
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.679
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.961
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.222
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.609
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.614
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.649
Beta is -61.73% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.004
Beta is -37.13% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
17.96%
Sustainable growth rate is -52.19% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.064
Alpha is -546.77% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -407% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BLL
Equity cost of capital:
0.075
Equity cost of capital is -25.46% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.63%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.02%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.39%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.39%
WACC is -20.55% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$45.82
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.43
Annual revenue growth rate is 151.29% above the industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
15.14%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 64.42% higher than the Packaging & Containers industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 76.65%
Equity growth rate per share is 546.00% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$27.44
EBITDA per share
$7.44
Valuation Analysis Today of
BLL
P/E Ratio:
25.04
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
9.08
P/E ratio is 175.78% higher than main peers & is 27.32% higher than the industry
-
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $38.19
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $19.96
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.22
Price to sales ratio is -2.26% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.43
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is 654.91% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
104.38%
Net income growth rate is -482.84% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.78%
Dividend yeild: 1.43%
Previous Dividend: $0.20
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.20
Previous Dividend: $0.80
Expected next dividend best case: $0.22
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.18
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.17
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.33%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$0.20
2021-11-30--$0.20
2021-05-28--$0.15
2022-02-28--$0.20
2021-08-31--$0.20
2021-02-26--$0.15
Dividend growth rate is -56.88% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
221.27%
Net debt to equity ratio:
219.78%
Debt to assets ratio:
41.22%
Net debt to assets ratio:
40.94%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -38.36% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.59
Interest coverage ratio is 52.89% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
3.74%
Annual debt growth is -145% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.01%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.572
Statistical significance of correlation:
BLL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.556
Stock price is 2.79% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.556
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.011
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.013
Kurtosis
12.199
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.607
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BLL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
78%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.10%
Operating profit margin is 53.38% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
78%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.02%
Effective tax rate is -52.86% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
28.84%
Return on equity (ROE) is -42.74% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.37%
Return on assets (ROA) is 3.31% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
0.97
Current ratio is -38.20% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-74.5
Cash conversion cycle is -217.12% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
592.7K
Each employee generates -81% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
96.2K
Each employee generates -84% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
46.3K
Each employee generates -83% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 48.0K
Each employee generates 190% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
601.6K
Each employee generates 190% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BLL
LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP. (XNYS:LVS)
V.F. CORPORATION (XNYS:VFC)
LENNAR CORPORATION (XNYS:LEN)
CARVANA CO. (XNYS:CVNA)
Magna International Inc. (XNYS:MGA)
Carnival Corp (XNYS:CCL)
TTM TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:TTMI)
D.R. HORTON, INC. (XNYS:DHI)
Best Buy Co., Inc. (XNYS:BBY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�17%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
14.40B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
11.61B
2.79B
-
-
622.00M
-
717.00M
1.34B
-
272.00M
717.00M
2.34B
1.46B
1.12B
1.32B
224.00M
1.12B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
185.00M
Differed Income Tax :
48.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 1004000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 480000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 804000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
298.00M
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
437.00M
-
437.00M
3.13B
2.32B
418.00M
6.31B
7.13B
4.32B
1.63B
190.00M
88.00M
1.27B
14.62B
-
20.93B
5.03B
379.00M
-
-
1.08B
6.49B
8.63B
1.18B
10.48B
-
16.97B
1.23B
7.22B
- 611000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
12.95B
3.90B
20.87B
-
9.00B
8.6B
-
- 344000.00K
- 46000.00K
- 1000.00K
1.00M
- 98000.00K
- 65000.00K
878.00M
715.00M
2.00M
- 133000.00K
446.00M
579.00M
- 804000.00K
- 362000.00K
- 1166000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BLL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$43.63
$45.48
$47.41
$49.42
$51.52