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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Balchem Corporation (XNAS:BCPC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BCPC
Name:
BALCHEM CORPORATION (XNAS:BCPC)
Sector:
- 3235.00K
Industry:
Specialty Chemicals
CEO:
Mr. Theodore Harris
Total Employees:
1,359
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -172.57% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BALCHEM CORPORATION(BCPC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY CHEMICALS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
129.2
One Month Price Target:
$129.63
Six Month Price Target :
$131.76
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$134.32
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$128.83
Price Upper limit ($) :
$129.71
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$123.93
This week:
$117.41
This month :
$105.61
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.19B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
32.12M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.55%
-8.74%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$153.67
$142.38
$104.73
$116.02
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$138.71
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$136.31
$119.66
$122.09
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BCPC
Sharpe Ratio:
2.27%
Comparison:
BCPC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 7.22% higher than the industry
& is -0.36% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BCPC
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.27%
Monthly returns:
1.09%
Yearly returns:
24.57%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -46.67% below industry average
Classification:
BCPC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.49
Statistical test of Returns:
BCPC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.01%
Weekly Volatility:
4.50%
Monthly Volatility:
9.01%
Yearly Volatility:
31.21%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.40%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -80.14% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.08%
Weekly VaR:
-9.13%
Monthly VaR:
-18.26%
How Much Can the price of
BCPC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-63.24%
This translates to price declining to:
$109.15
This translates to price declining to:
$47.49
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BCPC is a 28.85% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 10.39% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -40.07% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BCPC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.59
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.688
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.973
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.527
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.603
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.675
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.465
Beta is -59.72% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.164
Beta is -49.33% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.46%
Sustainable growth rate is -70.70% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.059
Alpha is -56.03% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 376% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BCPC
Equity cost of capital:
0.072
Equity cost of capital is -35.36% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.43%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.24%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.98%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.98%
WACC is -22.48% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$26.22
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.75
Annual revenue growth rate is 1298.40% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.12
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
5.92%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 552.95% higher than the Specialty Chemicals industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.66
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 38.89%
Equity growth rate per share is 271.97% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$4.22
EBITDA per share
$5.70
Valuation Analysis Today of
BCPC
P/E Ratio:
38.67
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
77.36
P/E ratio is -50.01% lower than main peers & is 3.24% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $116.87
BCPC is 10.55% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.93
Price to sales ratio is 78.58% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.75
Price to free cash flow: 48.63
Price to free cash flow ratio is -1.26% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
21.87%
Net income growth rate is -139.56% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 20.37%
Dividend yeild: 1.35%
Previous Dividend: $0.64
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.64
Previous Dividend: $1.74
Expected next dividend best case: $0.88
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.40
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.58
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 10.94%
Expected next dividend payment date: 21/04/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/03/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 15/03/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 21/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 28/12/2021
Previous dividend declaration date: 15/12/2021
Dividend History:
2021-12-27--$0.64
2019-12-27--$0.52
--$0.00
2020-12-24--$0.58
--$0.00
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is -46.73% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
15.52%
Net debt to equity ratio:
8.41%
Debt to assets ratio:
11.34%
Net debt to assets ratio:
6.15%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -79.03% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
107.1
Interest coverage ratio is 409.34% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-36.87%
Annual debt growth is -110% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.03%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.616
Statistical significance of correlation:
BCPC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.58
Stock price is 6.23% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.58
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.005
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.006
Kurtosis
7.657
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.604
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BCPC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
121%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
16.06%
Operating profit margin is -105.70% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
121%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.52%
Effective tax rate is 31.00% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.63%
Return on equity (ROE) is -59.54% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
8.50%
Return on assets (ROA) is 223.85% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
2.59
Current ratio is -3.43% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
31.4
Cash conversion cycle is -49.04% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.03%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
619.7K
Each employee generates -17% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
134.7K
Each employee generates 36% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
74.8K
Each employee generates 135% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 2.4K
Each employee generates -94% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
643.9K
Each employee generates -94% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -100.00%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -1056.48% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
BCPC
ZYMERGEN INC. (XNAS:ZY)
SSR Mining Inc. (XNAS:SSRM)
AMYRIS, INC. (XNAS:AMRS)
UFP INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:UFPI)
METHANEX CORPORATION (XNAS:MEOH)
INNOSPEC INC. (XNAS:IOSP)
KAISER ALUMINUM CORPORATION (XNAS:KALU)
SCHNITZER STEEL INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:SCHN)
Green Plains Inc. (XNAS:GPRE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
842.23M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
586.28M
255.95M
9.29M
33.85M
81.16M
47.31M
30.25M
120.69M
-
1.71M
48.44M
183.03M
135.26M
101.62M
132.88M
31.26M
101.62M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.93M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
3.08M
Change in Working Capital :
- 37250.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 20405.00K
Other Working Capital:
7.97M
Other Non-Cash Items:
336.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
7.02M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
64.47M
-
64.47M
136.97M
108.41M
9.95M
319.80M
249.63M
522.59M
88.53M
-
-
14.36M
875.10M
-
1.19B
46.82M
2.36M
9.94M
-
74.35M
123.53M
135.56M
15.11M
197.70M
-
321.23M
2.14M
761.06M
- 6289.0K
116.77M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
706.97M
873.68M
1.19B
-
137.92M
73.5M
-
- 10072.00K
- 10072.00K
- 41.00K
-
- 34599.00K
- 20703.00K
20.50M
- 34845.00K
- 877.00K
- 38773.00K
64.47M
103.24M
7.02M
- 10256.00K
- 3235.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BCPC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$134.99
$186.94
$194.35
$202.06
$210.07