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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
B. Riley Financial, Inc. (XNAS:RILY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
RILY
Name:
B. RILEY FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:RILY)
Sector:
- 15074.00K
Industry:
Financial Conglomerates
CEO:
Mr. Bryant Riley
Total Employees:
1,406
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 24.08% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF B. RILEY FINANCIAL, INC.(RILY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FINANCIAL CONGLOMERATES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
50.95
One Month Price Target:
$51.47
Six Month Price Target :
$54.07
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$57.18
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$50.74
Price Upper limit ($) :
$51.3
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$47.6
This week:
$43.46
This month :
$35.96
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.37B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
28.29M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.94%
-17.02%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$66.48
$59.26
$35.42
$42.64
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$56.91
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$55.37
$44.97
$46.53
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
RILY
Sharpe Ratio:
4.04%
Comparison:
RILY, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 741.57% higher than the industry
& ratio is 77.15% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
RILY
Daily returns:
0.14%
Weekly returns:
0.70%
Monthly returns:
2.82%
Yearly returns:
1.02%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 3223.49% above industry average
Classification:
RILY, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.59
Statistical test of Returns:
RILY has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.27%
Weekly Volatility:
7.31%
Monthly Volatility:
14.63%
Yearly Volatility:
50.67%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.99%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -39.11% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.58%
Weekly VaR:
-14.71%
Monthly VaR:
-29.41%
How Much Can the price of
RILY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$38.52
This translates to price declining to:
$7.64
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
RILY is a 107.59% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 77.84% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 6.51% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
RILY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.82
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.099
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.554
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.339
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.064
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.911
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.139
Beta is 59.82% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.541
Beta is 18.14% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
35.20%
Sustainable growth rate is -6.10% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.182
Alpha is -243.51% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1159% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
RILY
Equity cost of capital:
0.156
Equity cost of capital is 13.97% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.91%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.90%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.87%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.87%
WACC is 13.07% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$47.58
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.38
Annual revenue growth rate is 232.55% above the industry average
EPS:
$5.92
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
69.84%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 37.62% higher than the Financial Conglomerates industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.75
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 1370.57%
Equity growth rate per share is 115.53% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$12.38
Valuation Analysis Today of
RILY
P/E Ratio:
7.93
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.95
P/E ratio is -43.14% lower than main peers & is -72.48% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $170.67
RILY is -70.15% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.07
Price to sales ratio is -13.15% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.38
Price to free cash flow: 18.50
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
2599.64%
Net income growth rate is 299.05% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.12%
Dividend yeild: 15.70%
Previous Dividend: $1.00
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.00
Previous Dividend: $8.00
Expected next dividend best case: $2.18
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.18
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.36
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 136.88%
Expected next dividend payment date: 18/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 20/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/11/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-10--$1.00
2021-11-08--$3.00
2021-05-14--$3.00
2022-03-08--$1.00
2021-08-12--$1.50
2021-03-09--$3.00
Dividend growth rate is 15.56% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
608.42%
Net debt to equity ratio:
230.65%
Debt to assets ratio:
85.19%
Net debt to assets ratio:
28.74%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 2.54% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.15
Interest coverage ratio is -83.25% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
133.09%
Annual debt growth is -93% lower than industry average debt growth rate
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.627
Statistical significance of correlation:
RILY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.652
Stock price is -3.91% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.652
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.032
Kurtosis
4.953
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.074
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
RILY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
367%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
24.68%
Operating profit margin is -5.19% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
367%
Effective Tax Rate:
28.31%
Effective tax rate is 7.54% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
27.25%
Return on equity (ROE) is -40.72% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.40%
Return on assets (ROA) is -40.80% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
6.8x
Current Ratio:
0.87
Current ratio is -70.41% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-8.6
Cash conversion cycle is -167.77% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
9.54%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
957.3K
Each employee generates -15% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
249.0K
Each employee generates 9% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
126.8K
Each employee generates -13% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 10.7K
Each employee generates -73% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
419.8K
Each employee generates -73% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
RILY
NMI HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:NMIH)
PATRIA INVESTMENTS LTD. (XNAS:PAX)
VICTORY CAPITAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:VCTR)
VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:VRTS)
BGC PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:BGCP)
COLUMBIA FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:CLBK)
HEARTLAND FINANCIAL USA, INC. (XNAS:HTLF)
TRUSTMARK CORPORATION (XNAS:TRMK)
SEACOAST BANKING CORPORATION OF FLORIDA (XNAS:SBCF)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.35B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
112.04M
1.23B
-
-
890.05M
-
25.67M
915.72M
247.00K
84.44M
17.22M
350.13M
332.14M
178.33M
247.76M
70.14M
178.33M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
- 1893.00K
Differed Income Tax :
- 41900.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
17.01M
Change in Working Capital :
- 1361099.00K
Accounts Receivables:
6.36M
Other Working Capital:
- 231615.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.39B
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 14898.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 176.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 40047.00K
Purchases of Investments:
215.97M
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
213.58M
1.32B
1.53B
44.72M
-
-
1.58B
12.98M
362.47M
211.92M
-
2.87M
-
590.23M
4.27B
5.25B
8.63M
1.72B
-
75.51M
-
1.81B
-
2.35B
2.40B
-
4.21B
3.00K
205.77M
- 1568.0K
450.16M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.03B
654.36M
4.86B
-
1.72B
1.5B
-
-
175.75M
-
-
-
- 2002.00K
-
-
- 34.00K
-
-
279.86M
- 14898.00K
- 176.00K
- 15074.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
RILY
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$57.47
$101.85
$114.31
$128.29
$143.98