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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Axonics, Inc. (XNAS:AXNX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AXNX
Name:
AXONICS, INC. (XNAS:AXNX)
Sector:
- 9458.00K
Industry:
Medical Devices
CEO:
Mr. Raymond Cohen
Total Employees:
517
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -106.63% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AXONICS, INC.(AXNX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL DEVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
70.65
One Month Price Target:
$70.82
Six Month Price Target :
$71.65
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$72.66
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$70.36
Price Upper limit ($) :
$71.25
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$65.47
This week:
$59.07
This month :
$47.48
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.36B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
49.13M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.84%
-21.04%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$94.65
$83.39
$46.65
$57.91
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$79.73
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$77.32
$61.54
$63.98
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AXNX
Sharpe Ratio:
5.70%
Comparison:
AXNX, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 276.06% higher than the industry
& ratio is 149.90% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AXNX
Daily returns:
0.22%
Weekly returns:
1.09%
Monthly returns:
4.37%
Yearly returns:
15.36%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 241.09% above industry average
Classification:
AXNX, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.22
Statistical test of Returns:
AXNX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.68%
Weekly Volatility:
8.22%
Monthly Volatility:
16.44%
Yearly Volatility:
56.96%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.25%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -66.01% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.33%
Weekly VaR:
-16.40%
Monthly VaR:
-32.79%
How Much Can the price of
AXNX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$51.94
This translates to price declining to:
$10.60
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AXNX is a 131.44% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 98.27% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 17.10% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AXNX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.42
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.574
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.811
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.415
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.649
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.832
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.386
Beta is -69.45% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.065
Beta is -60.25% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.463
Alpha is 842.96% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2949% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AXNX
Equity cost of capital:
0.060
Equity cost of capital is -42.08% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.94%
Before-tax cost of debt:
62.10%
After-tax cost of debt:
49.06%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
49.06%
WACC is -11.42% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.96
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
7.49
Annual revenue growth rate is 1167.05% above the industry average
EPS:
-$1.81
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-12.75%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -210.06% lower than the Medical Devices industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.18
EBITDA per share
-$1.28
Valuation Analysis Today of
AXNX
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
126.32
-
-
AXNX is -116.03% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
17.86
Price to sales ratio is 91.88% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
7.49
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-53.36%
Net income growth rate is -154.94% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1.87%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-43.82%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.65%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-38.64%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -95.73% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-10.01
Interest coverage ratio is -175.05% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-75.32%
Annual debt growth is -131% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.337
Statistical significance of correlation:
AXNX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.468
Stock price is -27.95% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.468
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.04
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.086
Kurtosis
4.939
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.192
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AXNX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
264%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-37.94%
Operating profit margin is 122.19% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
264%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.28%
Effective tax rate is -100.51% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-17.31%
Return on equity (ROE) is 76.58% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-15.27%
Return on assets (ROA) is 352.82% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
12.05
Current ratio is 86.35% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
106.1
Cash conversion cycle is 90.11% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-8.90%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
375.9K
Each employee generates 0% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 121.3K
Each employee generates -2039% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 155.2K
Each employee generates 422% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 18.3K
Each employee generates 29% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
421.9K
Each employee generates 29% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 27.86%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -21347.23% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
AXNX
Outset Medical, Inc. (XNAS:OM)
HEALTH CATALYST, INC. (XNAS:HCAT)
GLOBAL BLOOD THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:GBT)
SEER, INC. (XNAS:SEER)
BIOCRYST PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:BCRX)
VERICEL CORPORATION (XNAS:VCEL)
ZENTALIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:ZNTL)
MAGELLAN HEALTH, INC. (XFRA:MAH1)
CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INCORPORATED (XNAS:CORT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
194.34M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
65.78M
128.56M
39.16M
36.17M
154.10M
117.92M
9.03M
202.29M
75.00K
6.27M
11.02M
- 62719.00K
- 73725.00K
- 80232.00K
- 80006.00K
226.00K
- 80232.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.03M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1210.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
7.14M
Change in Working Capital :
4.58M
Accounts Receivables:
1.60M
Other Working Capital:
- 4925.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 39.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 9167.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 291.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
213.18M
-
213.18M
27.43M
61.88M
4.95M
307.43M
6.91M
102.56M
101.18M
-
-
7.49M
218.14M
-
525.57M
10.39M
1.40M
-
-
13.73M
25.52M
8.69M
10.37M
36.62M
-
62.14M
5.00K
- 337234.00K
- 11480.0K
812.14M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
268.06M
463.43M
525.57M
-
10.09M
- 203091.0K
-
-
- 291.00K
-
-
-
-
1.44M
1.44M
316.00K
- 7698.00K
213.18M
220.88M
- 9167.00K
- 291.00K
- 9458.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AXNX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$73.02
$18.76
$19.30
$19.84
$20.41