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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Axon Enterprise, Inc. (XNAS:AXON) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AXON
Name:
AXON ENTERPRISE, INC. (XNAS:AXON)
Sector:
26.83M
Industry:
Aerospace & Defense
CEO:
Mr. Patrick W. Smith
Total Employees:
2,148
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 277.25% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AXON ENTERPRISE, INC.(AXON) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AEROSPACE & DEFENSE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
115.78
One Month Price Target:
$116.19
Six Month Price Target :
$118.26
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$120.73
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$115.24
Price Upper limit ($) :
$116.62
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$107.56
This week:
$97.4
This month :
$79.01
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
8.37B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
71.08M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.55%
-13.87%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$153.90
$136.23
$77.66
$95.33
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$130.48
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$126.71
$101.03
$104.85
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AXON
Sharpe Ratio:
3.43%
Comparison:
AXON, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 215.83% higher than the industry
& ratio is 50.32% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AXON
Daily returns:
0.13%
Weekly returns:
0.65%
Monthly returns:
2.59%
Yearly returns:
10.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 197.59% above industry average
Classification:
AXON, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.81
Statistical test of Returns:
AXON has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.52%
Weekly Volatility:
7.87%
Monthly Volatility:
15.74%
Yearly Volatility:
54.54%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.29%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -63.25% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.10%
Weekly VaR:
-15.88%
Monthly VaR:
-31.76%
How Much Can the price of
AXON
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$84.99
This translates to price declining to:
$17.37
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AXON is a 124.13% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 92.01% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 11.49% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AXON
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.64
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.576
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.815
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.663
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.211
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.821
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.525
Beta is -58.26% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.007
Beta is -36.79% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.236
Alpha is 5870.86% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1500% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AXON
Equity cost of capital:
0.075
Equity cost of capital is -25.25% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.82%
Before-tax cost of debt:
352.91%
After-tax cost of debt:
278.80%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
278.80%
WACC is 33.12% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$13.01
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
7.32
Annual revenue growth rate is -0.44% below industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.71
-
-
Debt per share
$0.28
EBITDA per share
$1.01
Valuation Analysis Today of
AXON
P/E Ratio:
59.73
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
42.75
P/E ratio is 39.72% higher than main peers & is 27.10% higher than the industry
-
-
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.9
Price to sales ratio is -6.41% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
7.32
Price to free cash flow: 162.23
Price to free cash flow ratio is 95.38% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-287.58%
Net income growth rate is -9598.88% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1.79%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-32.56%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.13%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-20.66%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.89% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
1.01
Interest coverage ratio is -87.81% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.555
Statistical significance of correlation:
AXON has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.541
Stock price is 2.48% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.541
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.029
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.058
Kurtosis
5.352
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.543
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AXON
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
248%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-10.89%
Operating profit margin is -97.81% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
248%
Effective Tax Rate:
322.70%
Effective tax rate is 1259.83% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
3.80%
Return on equity (ROE) is -51.99% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.41%
Return on assets (ROA) is -43.50% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
2.44
Current ratio is -23.09% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
130.7
Cash conversion cycle is -77.30% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
58.66%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
430.5K
Each employee generates 25% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
33.5K
Each employee generates -11% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
19.9K
Each employee generates 210% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
12.5K
Each employee generates -638% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
291.6K
Each employee generates -638% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 57.50%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -33192.75% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
AXON
WOODWARD, INC. (XNAS:WWD)
LINCOLN ELECTRIC HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:LECO)
TuSimple Holdings Inc (XNAS:TSP)
STERICYCLE, INC. (XNAS:SRCL)
LANDSTAR SYSTEM, INC. (XNAS:LSTR)
TETRA TECH, INC. (XNAS:TTEK)
WILLSCOT MOBILE MINI HOLDINGS CORP. (XNAS:WSC)
BUILDERS FIRSTSOURCE, INC. (XNYS:BLDR)
SAIA, INC. (XNAS:SAIA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�17%
Hold�13%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
924.79M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
351.49M
573.30M
195.42M
-
478.54M
-
-
673.96M
41.84M
70.98M
20.16M
71.93M
- 100667.00K
42.77M
- 19205.00K
- 61975.00K
42.77M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
5.76M
Differed Income Tax :
19.39M
Stock Based Compensation :
25.09M
Change in Working Capital :
- 7382.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
16.04M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 53762.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
43.96M
Investments in PP&E:
- 17098.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 500.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
386.37M
77.62M
463.99M
492.77M
122.15M
67.21M
1.15B
172.75M
43.61M
14.40M
172.18M
108.84M
114.56M
626.34M
-
1.77B
49.35M
-
3.62M
345.04M
76.29M
470.68M
20.11M
15.59M
176.99M
-
647.67M
1.00K
164.75M
- 2878.0K
962.91M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.03B
1.12B
1.77B
249.81M
20.11M
- 366255.0K
7.20M
50.00K
- 10348.00K
-
-
- 71.00K
-
- 1388.00K
- 1459.00K
- 157.00K
32.00M
388.44M
356.44M
43.96M
- 17135.00K
26.83M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AXON
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$90.55
$94.42
$98.46
$102.67
$107.06