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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (XNAS:ACLS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ACLS
Name:
AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:ACLS)
Sector:
24.27M
Industry:
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
CEO:
Ms. Mary Puma
Total Employees:
1,122
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -74.34% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC.(ACLS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
63.39
One Month Price Target:
$63.99
Six Month Price Target :
$67.
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$70.61
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$63.09
Price Upper limit ($) :
$63.98
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$58.14
This week:
$51.64
This month :
$39.89
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.05B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
33.03M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.55%
-26.52%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$87.73
$76.33
$39.05
$50.45
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$72.62
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$70.19
$54.13
$56.59
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ACLS
Sharpe Ratio:
5.40%
Comparison:
ACLS, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 94.74% higher than the industry
& ratio is 137.03% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ACLS
Daily returns:
0.23%
Weekly returns:
1.17%
Monthly returns:
4.66%
Yearly returns:
28.31%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 97.53% above industry average
Classification:
ACLS, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.26
Statistical test of Returns:
ACLS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.15%
Weekly Volatility:
9.28%
Monthly Volatility:
18.55%
Yearly Volatility:
64.28%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.44%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -41.12% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.29%
Weekly VaR:
-18.53%
Monthly VaR:
-37.06%
How Much Can the price of
ACLS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-30%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$44.31
This translates to price declining to:
$9.51
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ACLS is a 161.60% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 124.11% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 10.77% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ACLS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.70
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.323
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.872
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.586
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.604
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.929
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.351
Beta is 25.52% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.394
Beta is 21.61% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
15.71%
Sustainable growth rate is -38.94% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.412
Alpha is 163.67% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2620% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ACLS
Equity cost of capital:
0.148
Equity cost of capital is 16.25% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
13.81%
Before-tax cost of debt:
11.29%
After-tax cost of debt:
8.92%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
8.92%
WACC is 35.46% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$22.20
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.74
Annual revenue growth rate is -20.52% below industry average
EPS:
$3.63
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
76.93%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 147.59% higher than the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.23
-
-
Debt per share
$1.40
EBITDA per share
$4.98
Valuation Analysis Today of
ACLS
P/E Ratio:
14.4
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
112.36
P/E ratio is -87.18% lower than main peers & is -49.82% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $104.18
ACLS is -39.15% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.86
Price to sales ratio is -55.39% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.74
Price to free cash flow: 12.12
Price to free cash flow ratio is -50.49% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
108.72%
Net income growth rate is -84.11% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
8.25%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-44.70%
Debt to assets ratio:
5.90%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-31.96%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -88.16% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
30.89
Interest coverage ratio is 58.80% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-1.57%
Annual debt growth is -297% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.49%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.65
Statistical significance of correlation:
ACLS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.604
Stock price is 7.61% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.604
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.024
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.058
Kurtosis
4.343
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.1
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ACLS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
174%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
21.26%
Operating profit margin is -573.65% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
174%
Effective Tax Rate:
16.42%
Effective tax rate is 26.28% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
22.13%
Return on equity (ROE) is 55.68% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
15.83%
Return on assets (ROA) is 83.45% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
4.4
Current ratio is 0.22% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
67.3
Cash conversion cycle is 15.53% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.18%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
653.5K
Each employee generates 11% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
146.6K
Each employee generates -13% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
110.3K
Each employee generates 1% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
21.6K
Each employee generates 26% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
119.0K
Each employee generates 26% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 5.82%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -75.41% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ACLS
EPLUS INC. (XNAS:PLUS)
QADA
QADB
CAMTEK LTD (XNAS:CAMT)
EVO PAYMENTS, INC. (XNAS:EVOP)
UPLAND SOFTWARE, INC. (XNAS:UPLD)
EXTREME NETWORKS, INC. (XNAS:EXTR)
GROUPON, INC. (XNAS:GRPN)
ACM RESEARCH, INC. (XNAS:ACMR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�13%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
733.25M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
413.47M
319.78M
66.72M
48.71M
97.16M
48.45M
-
163.88M
271.00K
5.32M
11.02M
164.46M
155.90M
123.78M
148.11M
24.33M
123.78M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.85M
Differed Income Tax :
2.25M
Stock Based Compensation :
2.70M
Change in Working Capital :
- 24672.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 15199.00K
Other Working Capital:
7.45M
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.03M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
25.77M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
297.14M
-
297.14M
118.99M
203.84M
28.74M
648.71M
63.82M
-
-
-
36.23M
33.45M
133.49M
-
782.20M
50.76M
1.04M
1.73M
60.48M
35.22M
147.50M
46.13M
14.94M
75.43M
-
222.92M
33.00K
4.02M
588.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
577.35M
559.27M
782.20M
-
47.17M
- 249974.0K
-
- 1503.00K
- 1503.00K
- 229.00K
-
- 20000.00K
-
- 2824.00K
- 23053.00K
1.00M
2.22M
297.90M
295.68M
25.77M
- 1503.00K
24.27M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ACLS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$70.96
$275.88
$307.31
$342.33
$381.33