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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Avnet, Inc. (XNAS:AVT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AVT
Name:
AVNET, INC. (XNAS:AVT)
Sector:
- 42993.00K
Industry:
Electronics & Computer Distribution
CEO:
Mr. William Amelio
Total Employees:
15,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1325.63% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AVNET, INC.(AVT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ELECTRONICS & COMPUTER DISTRIBUTION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
42.71
One Month Price Target:
$43.02
Six Month Price Target :
$44.58
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$46.45
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$42.54
Price Upper limit ($) :
$42.91
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$40.49
This week:
$37.73
This month :
$32.76
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.91B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
94.67M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.91%
-20.04%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$53.04
$48.31
$32.38
$37.11
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$46.77
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$45.76
$38.64
$39.66
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AVT
Sharpe Ratio:
1.09%
Comparison:
AVT, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -0.01% lower than the industry
& is -52.31% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AVT
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.18%
Monthly returns:
0.73%
Yearly returns:
8.65%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 1.58% above industry average
Classification:
AVT, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.75
Statistical test of Returns:
AVT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.55%
Weekly Volatility:
5.71%
Monthly Volatility:
11.42%
Yearly Volatility:
39.57%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.18%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -53.64% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.21%
Weekly VaR:
-11.65%
Monthly VaR:
-23.30%
How Much Can the price of
AVT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-80.70%
This translates to price declining to:
$34.09
This translates to price declining to:
$8.24
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AVT is a 64.43% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 40.87% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -5.92% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AVT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.30
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.759
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.073
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.997
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.631
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.9
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.017
Beta is 28.10% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.187
Beta is 9.71% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.91%
Sustainable growth rate is -25.55% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.033
Alpha is 24.79% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -209% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AVT
Equity cost of capital:
0.121
Equity cost of capital is 7.00% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.24%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.59%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.41%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.41%
WACC is -4.04% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$244.70
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.98
Annual revenue growth rate is 2.94% above the industry average
EPS:
$5.30
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
41.17%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 199.43% higher than the Electronics & Computer Distribution industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 15.40%
Equity growth rate per share is -74.52% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$17.11
EBITDA per share
$9.84
Valuation Analysis Today of
AVT
P/E Ratio:
6.14
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
895.71
P/E ratio is -99.31% lower than main peers & is -49.42% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $64.32
AVT is -33.60% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $417.90
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $10.37
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.17
Price to sales ratio is -65.32% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.98
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-249.14%
Net income growth rate is 450.14% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.50%
Dividend yeild: 2.34%
Previous Dividend: $0.26
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.26
Previous Dividend: $1.00
Expected next dividend best case: $0.28
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.24
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.23
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.22%
Expected next dividend payment date: 20/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/06/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 22/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/08/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-07--$0.26
2021-11-30--$0.24
2021-06-08--$0.22
2022-03-01--$0.26
2021-09-03--$0.24
2021-03-09--$0.21
Dividend growth rate is -96.44% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
39.08%
Net debt to equity ratio:
33.24%
Debt to assets ratio:
17.59%
Net debt to assets ratio:
14.96%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -67.83% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9.94
Interest coverage ratio is -16.24% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-12.66%
Annual debt growth is -29% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.05%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.518
Statistical significance of correlation:
AVT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.551
Stock price is -6.03% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.551
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.02
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.03
Kurtosis
11.426
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.719
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AVT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
49%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
3.33%
Operating profit margin is 125.37% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
49%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.52%
Effective tax rate is 39.15% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.81%
Return on equity (ROE) is 31.93% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.76%
Return on assets (ROA) is 46.04% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
2.4
Current ratio is 20.19% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
34
Cash conversion cycle is -49.18% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.73%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.5M
Each employee generates 7% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
60.9K
Each employee generates -7% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
34.7K
Each employee generates -14% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 2.8K
Each employee generates -78% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
114.1K
Each employee generates -78% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
AVT
APPFOLIO, INC. (XNAS:APPF)
FEYE
VIAVI SOLUTIONS INC. (XNAS:VIAV)
Sprout Social Inc (XNAS:SPT)
Jamf Holding Corp. (XNAS:JAMF)
ACI WORLDWIDE, INC. (XNAS:ACIW)
Mandiant, Inc. (XNAS:MNDT)
TOWER SEMICONDUCTOR LTD (XNAS:TSEM)
SPS COMMERCE, INC. (XNAS:SPSC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
23.16B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
20.33B
2.83B
-
-
2.00B
-
-
2.00B
-
93.73M
161.50M
931.73M
772.32M
530.91M
676.50M
145.59M
530.91M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
40.79M
Differed Income Tax :
- 3259.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
9.18M
Change in Working Capital :
- 191602.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
4.35B
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.60M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 30968.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 12025.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
10/2/21
2022
Q1
299.10M
-
299.10M
3.72B
3.28B
161.85M
7.47B
609.49M
823.95M
23.07M
-
-
289.73M
1.75B
-
9.21B
2.47B
57.26M
-
-
588.34M
3.11B
1.62B
332.33M
1.95B
-
5.07B
99.34M
2.59B
- 178771.0K
1.63B
October 2, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
22.33B
4.15B
9.21B
-
1.68B
1.4B
-
318.00K
- 11707.00K
- 734.00K
-
- 9566.00K
- 23893.00K
176.68M
142.49M
- 401.00K
99.41M
299.10M
199.69M
- 30968.00K
- 12025.00K
- 42993.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AVT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$46.68
$1,866.22
$2,029.59
$2,207.26
$2,400.49