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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Avidxchange Holdings Inc (XNAS:AVDX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AVDX
Name:
Avidxchange Holdings Inc (XNAS:AVDX)
Sector:
- 38357.00K
Industry:
Software�Infrastructure
CEO:
Total Employees:
1,600
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 110.88% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AVIDXCHANGE HOLDINGS INC(AVDX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
7.64
One Month Price Target:
$7.71
Six Month Price Target :
$8.07
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$8.51
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$7.5
Price Upper limit ($) :
$7.72
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$6.84
This week:
$5.85
This month :
$4.05
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.58B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
198.10M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.86%
-16.71%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$11.38
$9.75
$3.90
$5.53
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$9.22
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.87
$6.06
$6.41
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AVDX
Sharpe Ratio:
-8.44%
Comparison:
AVDX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -616.08% lower than the industry
& is -470.19% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AVDX
Daily returns:
-0.41%
Weekly returns:
-2.03%
Monthly returns:
-8.12%
Yearly returns:
14.38%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -777.09% below industry average
Classification:
AVDX, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.39
Statistical test of Returns:
AVDX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.91%
Weekly Volatility:
10.99%
Monthly Volatility:
21.98%
Yearly Volatility:
76.13%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.50%
Weekly VaR:
-23.47%
Monthly VaR:
-46.95%
How Much Can the price of
AVDX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-46%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$4.11
This translates to price declining to:
$1.15
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AVDX is a 231.35% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 183.87% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 47.48% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AVDX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.69
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.338
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
-0.002
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.143
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
-
-
Average Industry Beta:
1.112
Beta is 51.65% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-1.121
Alpha is -3198.18% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -7135% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AVDX
Equity cost of capital:
0.147
Equity cost of capital is 36.54% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.67%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.02%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.02%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.02%
WACC is 75.40% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.30
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.15
Annual revenue growth rate is -4.44% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.01
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-75.03%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -349.05% lower than the Software�Infrastructure industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.95
EBITDA per share
-$0.60
Valuation Analysis Today of
AVDX
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
-
-
-
AVDX is -1271.14% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.85
Price to sales ratio is -46.69% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.15
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
118.07%
Net income growth rate is -98.61% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
26.73%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-14.17%
Debt to assets ratio:
9.75%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-5.17%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -86.01% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-2683.55
Interest coverage ratio is 1171.70% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-29.80%
Annual debt growth is -128% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.13%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.012
Statistical significance of correlation:
AVDX does not have a has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
Stock price is -97.39% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.082
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.119
Kurtosis
0.872
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
0.048
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AVDX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
238%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-47.88%
Operating profit margin is 303.42% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
238%
Effective Tax Rate:
2.78%
Effective tax rate is -91.12% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-23.46%
Return on equity (ROE) is -121.98% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-8.56%
Return on assets (ROA) is 126.11% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.49
Current ratio is -35.90% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-36.7
Cash conversion cycle is -132.64% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-4.11%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
161.6K
Each employee generates -59% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 74.2K
Each employee generates -213% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 103.4K
Each employee generates -594% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 24.0K
Each employee generates -221% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
259.5K
Each employee generates -221% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 46.40%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -1889.29% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
AVDX
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
258.51M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
104.46M
154.04M
70.01M
110.15M
175.90M
65.75M
31.90M
277.82M
634.52K
44.22K
51.41M
- 118672.10K
- 123774.93K
- 165393.42K
- 170126.02K
- 4732.59K
- 165393.42K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
7.72M
Differed Income Tax :
54.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
6.79M
Change in Working Capital :
- 16707.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 3537.00K
Other Working Capital:
248.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.98M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 25314.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1734.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 228595.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
294.92M
228.66M
523.58M
47.00M
-
945.81M
1.52B
111.47M
165.92M
106.03M
-
-
31.80M
415.22M
-
1.93B
15.51M
6.64M
-
9.86M
984.16M
1.02B
188.38M
2.70M
210.57M
-
1.23B
198.00K
- 897698.00K
-
1.60B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
382.28M
704.87M
1.93B
-
195.02M
- 99901.0K
-
- 13357.00K
- 243686.00K
- 237.00K
173.00K
-
-
- 309201.00K
- 309265.00K
-
- 578265.00K
1.23B
1.81B
- 25314.00K
- 13043.00K
- 38357.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AVDX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$8.51
$9.47
$10.54
$11.74
$13.07