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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Avangrid, Inc. (XNYS:AGR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AGR
Name:
Avangrid, Inc. (XNYS:AGR)
Sector:
- 423000.00K
Industry:
Utilities�Regulated Electric
CEO:
Mr. Robert Kump
Total Employees:
7,348
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 2.40% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AVANGRID, INC.(AGR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND UTILITIES�REGULATED ELECTRIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
49.08
One Month Price Target:
$49.18
Six Month Price Target :
$49.67
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$50.26
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$48.93
Price Upper limit ($) :
$49.25
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$47.12
This week:
$44.69
This month :
$40.3
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
18.79B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
386.62M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.49%
-13.19%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$58.19
$54.03
$39.97
$44.13
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$52.67
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$51.78
$45.48
$46.38
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AGR
Sharpe Ratio:
0.58%
Comparison:
AGR, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -50.57% lower than the industry
& is -74.59% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AGR
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.10%
Monthly returns:
0.40%
Yearly returns:
7.85%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -38.27% below industry average
Classification:
AGR, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.82
Statistical test of Returns:
AGR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.96%
Weekly Volatility:
4.38%
Monthly Volatility:
8.75%
Yearly Volatility:
30.32%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.90%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -54.20% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.00%
Weekly VaR:
-8.94%
Monthly VaR:
-17.89%
How Much Can the price of
AGR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-61.97%
This translates to price declining to:
$41.43
This translates to price declining to:
$18.67
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AGR is a 26.25% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 8.16% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -3.54% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AGR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.36
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.534
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.756
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.258
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.415
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.621
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.675
Beta is -46.93% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.5
Beta is -28.32% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
0.16%
Sustainable growth rate is -95.45% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.008
Alpha is -159.52% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -48% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AGR
Equity cost of capital:
0.056
Equity cost of capital is -14.75% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.04%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.48%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.75%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.75%
WACC is -4.98% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$18.47
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.95
Annual revenue growth rate is -734.65% below industry average
EPS:
$2.14
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-4.47%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -27.65% lower than the Utilities�Regulated Electric industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 14.15%
Equity growth rate per share is 141.18% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$21.15
EBITDA per share
$5.55
Valuation Analysis Today of
AGR
P/E Ratio:
21.03
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17.03
P/E ratio is 23.50% higher than main peers & is -24.04% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $59.25
AGR is -17.17% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $49.91
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $31.41
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.66
Price to sales ratio is -8.47% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.95
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
18.82%
Net income growth rate is -739.06% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 20.78%
Dividend yeild: 3.59%
Previous Dividend: $0.44
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.44
Previous Dividend: $1.76
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.44
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/01/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/03/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-02--$0.44
2021-12-10--$0.44
2021-06-03--$0.44
2022-02-28--$0.44
2021-09-02--$0.44
2021-03-04--$0.44
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
42.63%
Net debt to equity ratio:
40.95%
Debt to assets ratio:
20.68%
Net debt to assets ratio:
19.86%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -67.10% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.25
Interest coverage ratio is 181.45% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-23.50%
Annual debt growth is -151% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 3.04%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.53
Statistical significance of correlation:
AGR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.597
Stock price is -11.20% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.597
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.018
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.021
Kurtosis
16.211
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.202
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AGR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
139%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.08%
Operating profit margin is -4.79% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
139%
Effective Tax Rate:
9.10%
Effective tax rate is -54.80% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
4.26%
Return on equity (ROE) is -53.09% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.07%
Return on assets (ROA) is -10.53% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
0.98
Current ratio is -59.12% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
53.5
Cash conversion cycle is -43.40% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
971.8K
Each employee generates -65% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
291.9K
Each employee generates -75% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
111.3K
Each employee generates -73% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 57.6K
Each employee generates 75% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
4.9M
Each employee generates 75% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
AGR
BROOKFIELD INFRASTRUCTURE PARTNERS L.P. (OTCM:BINFF)
Enel Americas SA (OTCM:ENIAY)
Evergy, Inc. (XNYS:EVRG)
KOREA ELECTRIC POWER CORPORATION (XNYS:KEP)
CENTERPOINT ENERGY, INC. (XNYS:CNP)
ATMOS ENERGY CORPORATION (XNYS:ATO)
DUKH
CNP-PB
CMS ENERGY CORPORATION (XNYS:CMS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�13%
Hold�8%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
7.14B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
4.67B
2.47B
-
-
-
-
1.68B
1.68B
-
296.00M
956.00M
2.15B
791.00M
818.00M
824.00M
75.00M
818.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
261.00M
Differed Income Tax :
51.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 116000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 235000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
388.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 172000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
648.00M
-
648.00M
1.48B
308.00M
793.00M
3.23B
29.88B
3.12B
289.00M
492.00M
-
2.54B
36.31B
-
39.54B
1.36B
326.00M
76.00M
-
1.62B
3.30B
8.18B
4.77B
16.18B
-
19.48B
3.00M
1.82B
- 277000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
6.35B
19.18B
38.66B
-
8.50B
7.9B
-
- 776000.00K
- 948000.00K
- 256000.00K
-
- 1000.00K
- 170000.00K
161.00M
- 266000.00K
-
- 826000.00K
651.00M
1.48B
388.00M
- 811000.00K
- 423000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AGR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$50.86
$52.09
$53.34
$54.63
$55.94