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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Autodesk, Inc. (XNAS:ADSK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ADSK
Name:
AUTODESK, INC. (XNAS:ADSK)
Sector:
314.90M
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Dr. Andrew Anagnost
Total Employees:
12,600
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 5528.50% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AUTODESK, INC.(ADSK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
198.69
One Month Price Target:
$200.39
Six Month Price Target :
$208.91
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$219.13
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$197.86
Price Upper limit ($) :
$199.73
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$187.45
This week:
$173.56
This month :
$148.42
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
42.78B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
215.86M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.2%
-15.49%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$250.85
$226.90
$146.53
$170.48
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$219.10
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$213.99
$178.21
$183.39
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ADSK
Sharpe Ratio:
1.61%
Comparison:
ADSK, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 66.64% higher than the industry
& is -29.53% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ADSK
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.27%
Monthly returns:
1.07%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 29.24% above industry average
Classification:
ADSK, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.84
Statistical test of Returns:
ADSK has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.78%
Weekly Volatility:
6.22%
Monthly Volatility:
12.44%
Yearly Volatility:
43.08%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.80%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -71.30% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.66%
Weekly VaR:
-12.65%
Monthly VaR:
-25.30%
How Much Can the price of
ADSK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-87.64%
This translates to price declining to:
$155.45
This translates to price declining to:
$24.56
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ADSK is a 78.56% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 52.97% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -22.65% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ADSK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.53
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.118
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.581
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.642
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.205
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.796
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.436
Beta is 6.65% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is 14.65% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
112.23%
Sustainable growth rate is 260.86% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.008
Alpha is -66.31% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -51% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ADSK
Equity cost of capital:
0.136
Equity cost of capital is 10.90% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.72%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.96%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.13%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.13%
WACC is 17.42% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$21.16
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
38.01
Annual revenue growth rate is -30.15% below industry average
EPS:
$2.20
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.16
-
-
Debt per share
$9.34
EBITDA per share
$4.00
Valuation Analysis Today of
ADSK
P/E Ratio:
78.31
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
219.65
P/E ratio is -64.35% lower than main peers & is -55.91% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $390.71
ADSK is -49.15% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
9.39
Price to sales ratio is -18.13% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
38.01
Price to free cash flow: 27.73
Price to free cash flow ratio is -64.43% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-313.22%
Net income growth rate is -228.28% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
178.59%
Net debt to equity ratio:
103.51%
Debt to assets ratio:
27.61%
Net debt to assets ratio:
16.00%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -49.67% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
10.43
Interest coverage ratio is -80.37% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-1.33%
Annual debt growth is -100% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.742
Statistical significance of correlation:
ADSK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is 47.56% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.027
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.044
Kurtosis
4.692
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.21
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ADSK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
361%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
15.28%
Operating profit margin is -179.74% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
361%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.43%
Effective tax rate is -14.98% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
43.19%
Return on equity (ROE) is -430.25% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.68%
Return on assets (ROA) is -273.88% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
0.48
Current ratio is -83.94% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-45.1
Cash conversion cycle is -147.61% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
23.76%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
362.5K
Each employee generates 5% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
68.6K
Each employee generates 538% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
38.7K
Each employee generates -322% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
25.0K
Each employee generates -422% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
459.8K
Each employee generates -422% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 9.56%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 525.56% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ADSK
NXP Semiconductors NV (XNAS:NXPI)
COINBASE GLOBAL, INC. (XNAS:COIN)
WORKDAY, INC. (XNAS:WDAY)
FORTINET, INC. (XNAS:FTNT)
SYNOPSYS, INC. (XNAS:SNPS)
XILINX, INC. (XNAS:XLNX)
COGNIZANT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS CORPORATION (XNAS:CTSH)
CADENCE DESIGN SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:CDNS)
MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INCORPORATED (XNAS:MCHP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�33%
Buy�46%
Hold�13%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
4.57B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
442.70M
4.12B
1.14B
579.80M
2.24B
1.67B
43.50M
3.43B
-
82.90M
153.10M
864.30M
697.80M
487.40M
628.30M
140.90M
487.40M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
33.00M
Differed Income Tax :
18.80M
Stock Based Compensation :
115.80M
Change in Working Capital :
- 5700.00K
Accounts Receivables:
324.40M
Other Working Capital:
- 27500.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
18.60M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
336.10M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 1031600.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/30/21
2022
Q1
923.20M
-
923.20M
326.10M
-
256.10M
1.51B
598.80M
3.48B
173.90M
-
743.70M
792.50M
5.79B
-
7.30B
124.00M
76.00M
47.80M
2.54B
389.40M
3.13B
2.02B
164.90M
3.04B
-
6.17B
2.64B
- 1409300.00K
- 101700.0K
-
April 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
3.87B
1.13B
7.30B
-
2.09B
1.2B
4.00M
- 12800.00K
- 1040400.00K
-
64.20M
- 151400.00K
-
- 54900.00K
- 142100.00K
- 2600.00K
- 849000.00K
923.20M
1.77B
336.10M
- 21200.00K
314.90M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ADSK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$220.23
$331.79
$365.92
$403.57
$445.10