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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Atrion Corporation (XNAS:ATRI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ATRI
Name:
ATRION CORPORATION (XNAS:ATRI)
Sector:
4.27M
Industry:
Medical Instruments & Supplies
CEO:
Mr. David Battat
Total Employees:
667
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -719.87% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ATRION CORPORATION(ATRI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & SUPPLIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
604.04
One Month Price Target:
$604.84
Six Month Price Target :
$608.82
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$613.6
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$601.77
Price Upper limit ($) :
$606.37
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$576.28
This week:
$541.96
This month :
$479.89
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.08B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
1.79M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.53%
-9.29%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$732.94
$674.27
$475.14
$533.81
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$655.18
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$642.66
$552.74
$565.42
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ATRI
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.15%
Comparison:
ATRI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -109.54% lower than the industry
& is -106.70% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ATRI
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.03%
Monthly returns:
0.11%
Yearly returns:
14.68%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -91.13% below industry average
Classification:
ATRI, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.49
Statistical test of Returns:
ATRI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.24%
Weekly Volatility:
5.01%
Monthly Volatility:
10.02%
Yearly Volatility:
34.71%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.40%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -37.55% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.60%
Weekly VaR:
-10.28%
Monthly VaR:
-20.55%
How Much Can the price of
ATRI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-71.20%
This translates to price declining to:
$494.60
This translates to price declining to:
$173.96
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ATRI is a 45.07% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 24.28% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -22.82% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ATRI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.24
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.325
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.46
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.213
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.363
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.501
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.159
Beta is -79.69% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.989
Beta is -76.20% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.86%
Sustainable growth rate is -46.55% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.035
Alpha is -172.76% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -220% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ATRI
Equity cost of capital:
0.048
Equity cost of capital is -52.02% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.30%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$96.85
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.38
Annual revenue growth rate is -81.88% below industry average
EPS:
$18.68
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-2.84%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -124.54% lower than the Medical Instruments & Supplies industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$12.58
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 43.22%
Equity growth rate per share is 16591.02% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$29.49
Valuation Analysis Today of
ATRI
P/E Ratio:
31.8
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.17
P/E ratio is 212.54% higher than main peers & is -36.26% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $931.94
ATRI is -35.18% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $375.03
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $342.43
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
6.24
Price to sales ratio is -15.90% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.38
Price to free cash flow: 48.01
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-2.61%
Net income growth rate is -97.53% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 10.35%
Dividend yeild: 1.29%
Previous Dividend: $1.95
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.95
Previous Dividend: $7.80
Expected next dividend best case: $2.09
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.81
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.77
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.43%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$1.95
2021-11-30--$1.95
2021-06-14--$1.75
2022-03-14--$1.95
2021-09-14--$1.95
2021-03-12--$1.75
Dividend growth rate is -223.02% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
12.39%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-10.11%
Debt to assets ratio:
11.03%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-9.16%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -69.28% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
384.48
Interest coverage ratio is 442.02% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.326
Statistical significance of correlation:
ATRI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.505
Stock price is -35.49% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.505
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.005
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.006
Kurtosis
4.685
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.688
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ATRI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
167%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
21.60%
Operating profit margin is 61.35% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
167%
Effective Tax Rate:
13.98%
Effective tax rate is -57.46% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.74%
Return on equity (ROE) is -130.13% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
12.45%
Return on assets (ROA) is 73.87% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
8.57
Current ratio is 134.73% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
67
Cash conversion cycle is 27.11% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.57%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
259.3K
Each employee generates -27% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
79.0K
Each employee generates -29% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
50.7K
Each employee generates -35% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
6.4K
Each employee generates -211% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
199.3K
Each employee generates -211% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 0.48%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 84.73% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ATRI
ATARA BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:ATRA)
HUMANIGEN, INC. (XNAS:HGEN)
DYNAVAX TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION (XNAS:DVAX)
ESSA Pharma Inc. (XNAS:EPIX)
Tabula Rasa HealthCare, Inc. (XNAS:TRHC)
PRAN
RHYTHM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:RYTM)
MIMEDX GROUP, INC. (XNAS:MDXG)
PHIBRO ANIMAL HEALTH CORPORATION (XNAS:PAHC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Sell
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
172.98M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
100.70M
72.28M
5.74M
20.53M
29.18M
8.65M
-
34.92M
764.00K
137.00K
13.21M
52.67M
37.36M
33.83M
39.33M
5.50M
33.83M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.42M
Differed Income Tax :
- 730.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
530.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 116.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 3135.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
244.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
11.85M
Investments in PP&E:
- 7577.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 10009.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
24.89M
35.37M
60.26M
24.16M
51.41M
2.90M
138.73M
102.16M
9.73M
1.27M
17.57M
-
2.18M
132.91M
-
271.64M
13.54M
-
2.64M
-
2.64M
16.19M
-
9.22M
9.22M
-
25.41M
342.00K
362.31M
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
135.62M
246.23M
271.64M
52.94M
-
- 24886.0K
5.31M
-
- 12278.00K
-
-
- 3447.00K
- 3500.00K
-
- 6947.00K
-
- 7378.00K
24.89M
32.26M
11.85M
- 7577.00K
4.27M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ATRI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$573.95
$583.03
$592.26
$601.63
$611.15