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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Atricure, Inc. (XNAS:ATRC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ATRC
Name:
ATRICURE, INC. (XNAS:ATRC)
Sector:
- 28013.00K
Industry:
Medical Instruments & Supplies
CEO:
Mr. Michael Carrel
Total Employees:
875
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -4875.47% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ATRICURE, INC.(ATRC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & SUPPLIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
42.82
One Month Price Target:
$43.11
Six Month Price Target :
$44.58
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$46.33
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$42.64
Price Upper limit ($) :
$43.08
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$40.24
This week:
$37.06
This month :
$31.29
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.99B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
46.42M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.19%
-16.73%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$54.78
$49.25
$30.86
$36.39
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$47.45
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$46.27
$38.17
$39.37
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ATRC
Sharpe Ratio:
2.81%
Comparison:
ATRC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 75.79% higher than the industry
& ratio is 23.49% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ATRC
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.46%
Monthly returns:
1.85%
Yearly returns:
14.68%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 51.42% above industry average
Classification:
ATRC, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.94
Statistical test of Returns:
ATRC has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.98%
Weekly Volatility:
6.66%
Monthly Volatility:
13.31%
Yearly Volatility:
46.11%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.07%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 3.14% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.02%
Weekly VaR:
-13.46%
Monthly VaR:
-26.92%
How Much Can the price of
ATRC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-93.27%
This translates to price declining to:
$33.08
This translates to price declining to:
$2.88
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ATRC is a 90.03% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 62.80% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 2.53% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ATRC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.22
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.946
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.338
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.053
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.523
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.766
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.169
Beta is 4.37% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.989
Beta is 23.33% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.82%
Sustainable growth rate is -26.36% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.107
Alpha is 125.49% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 683% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ATRC
Equity cost of capital:
0.115
Equity cost of capital is 15.93% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.94%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.28%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.96%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.96%
WACC is 22.26% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$6.24
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.3
Annual revenue growth rate is -80.21% below industry average
EPS:
$1.11
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$1.58
EBITDA per share
$1.47
Valuation Analysis Today of
ATRC
P/E Ratio:
37.4
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
301.12
P/E ratio is -87.58% lower than main peers & is -25.04% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $55.38
ATRC is -22.68% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
6.86
Price to sales ratio is -7.45% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.3
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-292.18%
Net income growth rate is 176.49% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
15.89%
Net debt to equity ratio:
10.19%
Debt to assets ratio:
12.57%
Net debt to assets ratio:
8.06%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -64.97% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
14.39
Interest coverage ratio is -79.71% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
22.30%
Annual debt growth is -80% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.29%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.347
Statistical significance of correlation:
ATRC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.505
Stock price is -31.22% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.505
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.055
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.096
Kurtosis
2.603
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
-0.281
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ATRC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
300%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
19.66%
Operating profit margin is 46.87% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
300%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.41%
Effective tax rate is -98.76% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.22%
Return on equity (ROE) is -124.61% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
8.88%
Return on assets (ROA) is 23.95% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
4.21
Current ratio is 15.39% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-4
Cash conversion cycle is -107.56% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
13.57%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
331.0K
Each employee generates -6% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
77.8K
Each employee generates -30% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
59.4K
Each employee generates -24% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 32.0K
Each employee generates 456% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
440.4K
Each employee generates 456% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 12.62%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 4774.54% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ATRC
ALKERMES PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:ALKS)
NUVASIVE, INC. (XNAS:NUVA)
CLOVER HEALTH INVESTMENTS, CORP. (XNAS:CLOV)
Olink Holding AB (publ) (XNAS:OLK)
Patterson Companies, Inc. (XNAS:PDCO)
MERIT MEDICAL SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:MMSI)
PRIVIA HEALTH GROUP, INC. (XNAS:PRVA)
NEKTAR THERAPEUTICS (XNAS:NKTR)
Sana Biotechnology Inc (XNAS:SANA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�17%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
289.63M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
72.72M
216.92M
50.92M
-
216.66M
-
-
267.58M
448.00K
4.73M
11.19M
68.06M
56.94M
51.93M
52.15M
213.00K
51.93M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.87M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
7.05M
Change in Working Capital :
- 20390.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 7950.00K
Other Working Capital:
47.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.03M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 24632.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 3381.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
28.14M
83.26M
111.40M
40.88M
40.76M
6.57M
199.61M
37.38M
234.78M
42.02M
70.51M
-
685.00K
385.38M
-
584.98M
20.29M
1.76M
1.59M
-
25.32M
47.38M
73.56M
1.23M
74.78M
-
122.16M
46.00K
- 295336.00K
- 3465.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
340.29M
462.83M
584.98M
153.77M
75.32M
47.2M
23.10M
-
19.72M
- 217.00K
-
- 10635.00K
-
355.00K
- 10497.00K
- 106.00K
- 15513.00K
28.14M
43.65M
- 24632.00K
- 3381.00K
- 28013.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ATRC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$46.56
$132.97
$143.87
$155.67
$168.43