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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Atn International, Inc. (XNAS:ATNI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ATNI
Name:
ATN INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:ATNI)
Sector:
- 23080.00K
Industry:
Telecom Services
CEO:
Mr. Michael Prior
Total Employees:
2,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -25.18% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ATN INTERNATIONAL, INC.(ATNI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TELECOM SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
45.38
One Month Price Target:
$45.43
Six Month Price Target :
$45.68
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$45.99
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$45.1
Price Upper limit ($) :
$45.7
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$41.77
This week:
$37.31
This month :
$29.25
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
712.35M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
15.76M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
62.94%
-38.63%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$62.12
$54.47
$28.64
$36.29
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$51.98
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$50.34
$38.76
$40.42
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ATNI
Sharpe Ratio:
0.85%
Comparison:
ATNI, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -12.68% lower than the industry
& is -62.75% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ATNI
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.21%
Monthly returns:
0.84%
Yearly returns:
17.77%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -43.45% below industry average
Classification:
ATNI, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.38
Statistical test of Returns:
ATNI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.89%
Weekly Volatility:
8.70%
Monthly Volatility:
17.40%
Yearly Volatility:
60.27%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.42%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -89.21% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.95%
Weekly VaR:
-17.77%
Monthly VaR:
-35.55%
How Much Can the price of
ATNI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-31%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$31.33
This translates to price declining to:
$6.81
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ATNI is a 150.89% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 114.94% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 14.16% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ATNI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.20
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.418
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.591
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.109
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.459
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.828
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.749
Beta is -73.42% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.819
Beta is -75.67% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.055
Alpha is -38.58% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 352% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ATNI
Equity cost of capital:
0.045
Equity cost of capital is -48.45% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.47%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.34%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.85%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.85%
WACC is -34.43% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$41.25
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.93
Annual revenue growth rate is -91.18% below industry average
EPS:
-$1.63
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
26.91%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 8.66% higher than the Telecom Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 0.27%
Equity growth rate per share is -101.70% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$30.23
EBITDA per share
$7.19
Valuation Analysis Today of
ATNI
P/E Ratio:
58.67
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.33
P/E ratio is 282.78% higher than main peers & is 98.82% higher than the industry
-
ATNI is -194.35% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $16.03
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $15.06
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.1
Price to sales ratio is -82.41% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.93
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-212.42%
Net income growth rate is -152.20% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -10.37%
Dividend yeild: 1.50%
Previous Dividend: $0.17
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.17
Previous Dividend: $0.68
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.17
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/06/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/08/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.17
2021-12-30--$0.17
2021-06-29--$0.17
2022-04-07--$0.17
2021-09-29--$0.17
2021-03-30--$0.17
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
80.11%
Net debt to equity ratio:
71.74%
Debt to assets ratio:
29.95%
Net debt to assets ratio:
26.82%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -60.82% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9.62
Interest coverage ratio is 512.96% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
456.92%
Annual debt growth is -87% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 3.60%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.269
Statistical significance of correlation:
ATNI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.461
Stock price is -41.77% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.461
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.032
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.073
Kurtosis
114.19
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
4.771
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ATNI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
216%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-2.81%
Operating profit margin is -189.76% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
216%
Effective Tax Rate:
-2.97%
Effective tax rate is -109.19% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-4.33%
Return on equity (ROE) is 12.78% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-1.62%
Return on assets (ROA) is 788.54% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.2
Current ratio is -25.96% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
18.3
Cash conversion cycle is -74.21% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-5.67%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
282.7K
Each employee generates -72% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
49.3K
Each employee generates -86% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 11.2K
Each employee generates -111% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 10.0K
Each employee generates -117% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
595.6K
Each employee generates -117% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ATNI
GRAVITY CO., LTD. (XNAS:GRVY)
SOHU.COM LIMITED (XNAS:SOHU)
PDVW
Scor SE (XPAR:SCR)
ANTERIX INC. (XNAS:ATEX)
PARTNER COMMUNICATIONS COMPANY LTD. (XNAS:PTNR)
CONSOLIDATED COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CNSL)
TPCO Holding Corp. (OTCM:GRAMF)
PT SOLUSI SINERGI DIGITAL Tbk (XIDX:WIFI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
650.22M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
298.31M
351.91M
-
94.01M
206.93M
-
126.55M
333.48M
183.00K
11.78M
126.55M
113.35M
- 18266.00K
- 25759.00K
- 26261.00K
779.00K
- 25759.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
36.55M
Differed Income Tax :
191.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.46M
Change in Working Capital :
- 26469.00K
Accounts Receivables:
931.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 25723.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.61M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
11.39M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
75.75M
300.00K
76.05M
74.45M
9.98M
60.36M
220.84M
1.05B
40.10M
154.83M
-
-
122.96M
1.37B
-
1.59B
113.70M
25.98M
6.68M
35.70M
9.36M
184.73M
476.47M
140.25M
638.37M
-
823.10M
172.00K
470.06M
5.2M
119.37M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
631.79M
594.79M
1.42B
-
502.45M
426.7M
-
- 34468.00K
- 34468.00K
- 17779.00K
-
-
- 2672.00K
39.68M
19.23M
-
- 3852.00K
76.85M
80.70M
11.39M
- 34468.00K
- 23080.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ATNI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$46.22
$2.00
$2.03
$2.05
$2.08