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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:AAWW) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AAWW
Name:
ATLAS AIR WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:AAWW)
Sector:
23.52M
Industry:
Airports & Air Services
CEO:
Mr. John Dietrich
Total Employees:
4,056
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ATLAS AIR WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS, INC.(AAWW) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AIRPORTS & AIR SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
99.96
One Month Price Target:
$100.63
Six Month Price Target :
$103.96
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$107.96
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$99.65
Price Upper limit ($) :
$100.77
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$93.44
This week:
$85.37
This month :
$70.79
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.83B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
28.32M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
26.62%
-17.22%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$130.16
$115.87
$69.76
$84.05
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$111.22
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$108.17
$88.66
$91.75
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AAWW
Sharpe Ratio:
7.20%
Comparison:
AAWW, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 0.00% lower than the industry
& ratio is 216.07% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AAWW
Daily returns:
0.25%
Weekly returns:
1.23%
Monthly returns:
4.93%
Yearly returns:
59.14%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 0.00% below industry average
Classification:
AAWW, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.37
Statistical test of Returns:
AAWW has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.30%
Weekly Volatility:
7.37%
Monthly Volatility:
14.75%
Yearly Volatility:
51.08%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.13%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -95.96% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.53%
Weekly VaR:
-14.59%
Monthly VaR:
-29.18%
How Much Can the price of
AAWW
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$77.00
This translates to price declining to:
$14.99
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AAWW is a 105.98% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 76.46% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 0.00% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AAWW
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.19
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.75
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.06
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.8
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.761
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.663
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.327
Beta is -10.22% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.192
Beta is 0.00% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
20.50%
Sustainable growth rate is 38.80% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.478
Alpha is 0.00% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3044% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AAWW
Equity cost of capital:
0.113
Equity cost of capital is 0.00% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.60%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.70%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.92%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.92%
WACC is 0.00% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$148.54
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.03
Annual revenue growth rate is -267.91% below industry average
EPS:
$15.38
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$17.89
-
-
Debt per share
$62.41
EBITDA per share
$38.19
Valuation Analysis Today of
AAWW
P/E Ratio:
6.89
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
36.24
P/E ratio is -80.98% lower than main peers & is -65.13% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $304.13
AAWW is -67.13% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.67
Price to sales ratio is -34.98% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.03
Price to free cash flow: 5.59
FALSE
Net income growth rate (3Y):
76.35%
Net income growth rate is -751.12% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
64.01%
Net debt to equity ratio:
61.59%
Debt to assets ratio:
27.91%
Net debt to assets ratio:
26.86%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -18.83% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
12.03
Interest coverage ratio is -10.03% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-9.99%
Annual debt growth is 100% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 5.78%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.421
Statistical significance of correlation:
AAWW has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.421
Stock price is 0.00% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.421
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.047
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.09
Kurtosis
9.993
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.594
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AAWW
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
107%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
17.32%
Operating profit margin is 65.76% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
107%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.66%
Effective tax rate is 18.49% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
17.56%
Return on equity (ROE) is 18.88% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.66%
Return on assets (ROA) is -1.73% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
0.81
Current ratio is -69.74% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-9
Cash conversion cycle is -134.26% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.45%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.0M
Each employee generates 0% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
266.6K
Each employee generates 0% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
119.6K
Each employee generates 0% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
5.8K
Each employee generates 0% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.3M
Each employee generates 0% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
AAWW
ARCBEST CORPORATION (XNAS:ARCB)
OFSSZ
XOMETRY, INC. (XNAS:XMTR)
ENCORE WIRE CORPORATION (XNAS:WIRE)
Central North Airport Group (XNAS:OMAB)
Latham Group Inc (XNAS:SWIM)
FIRST ADVANTAGE CORPORATION (XNAS:FA)
VERRA MOBILITY CORPORATION (XNAS:VRRM)
IGICW
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�13%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
4.21B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.07B
1.13B
-
168.08M
168.08M
-
241.91M
409.99M
752.00K
89.93M
356.42M
1.08B
728.49M
484.90M
635.14M
150.24M
484.90M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
85.26M
Differed Income Tax :
23.68M
Stock Based Compensation :
2.20M
Change in Working Capital :
18.82M
Accounts Receivables:
9.96M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 3622.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
207.84M
Investments in PP&E:
- 154420.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 783.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
730.35M
-
730.35M
297.26M
-
104.46M
1.13B
4.82B
-
-
-
-
317.99M
5.20B
-
6.33B
122.75M
663.59M
-
47.58M
567.56M
1.40B
1.77B
31.03M
2.17B
-
3.57B
351.00K
2.25B
- 433.0K
510.91M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.48B
2.76B
6.33B
-
2.43B
1.7B
-
- 16395.00K
- 171598.00K
- 108466.00K
-
- 112053.00K
-
4.16M
- 216355.00K
-
- 180114.00K
740.90M
921.02M
207.84M
- 184315.00K
23.52M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AAWW
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$108.50
$252.03
$272.21
$294.00
$317.54