_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Atlanticus Holdings Corporation (XNAS:ATLC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ATLC
Name:
ATLANTICUS HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNAS:ATLC)
Sector:
80.75M
Industry:
Credit Services
CEO:
Mr. David Hanna
Total Employees:
328
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ATLANTICUS HOLDINGS CORPORATION(ATLC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CREDIT SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
27.49
One Month Price Target:
$27.75
Six Month Price Target :
$29.07
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$30.65
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$27.33
Price Upper limit ($) :
$27.83
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$24.53
This week:
$20.88
This month :
$14.27
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
412.95M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
14.48M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
36.26%
-28.96%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$41.19
$34.76
$13.79
$20.22
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$32.67
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$31.30
$22.29
$23.68
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ATLC
Sharpe Ratio:
5.82%
Comparison:
ATLC, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 212.90% higher than the industry
& ratio is 155.20% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ATLC
Daily returns:
0.32%
Weekly returns:
1.61%
Monthly returns:
6.45%
Yearly returns:
19.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 306.17% above industry average
Classification:
ATLC, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.17
Statistical test of Returns:
ATLC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.39%
Weekly Volatility:
12.06%
Monthly Volatility:
24.12%
Yearly Volatility:
83.57%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.03%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -99.47% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.76%
Weekly VaR:
-24.05%
Monthly VaR:
-48.10%
How Much Can the price of
ATLC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-39%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$16.82
This translates to price declining to:
$4.12
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ATLC is a 239.50% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 190.85% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 63.47% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ATLC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.71
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.907
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.282
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.415
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.754
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.972
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.17
Beta is 45.98% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.332
Beta is 28.25% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
73.98%
Sustainable growth rate is 119.28% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.626
Alpha is 821.82% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3983% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ATLC
Equity cost of capital:
0.149
Equity cost of capital is 21.00% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.60%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.66%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.68%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.68%
WACC is -8.15% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$37.44
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.96
Annual revenue growth rate is -13.54% below industry average
EPS:
$7.62
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
63.18%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 152.11% higher than the Credit Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$14.78
-
-
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$19.10
Valuation Analysis Today of
ATLC
P/E Ratio:
3.66
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
11.26
P/E ratio is -67.49% lower than main peers & is -69.84% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $92.49
ATLC is -70.28% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.73
Price to sales ratio is -85.87% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.96
Price to free cash flow: 1.86
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
2077.15%
Net income growth rate is 12760.17% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.48%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
390.16%
Net debt to equity ratio:
327.58%
Debt to assets ratio:
79.64%
Net debt to assets ratio:
46.72%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 2.16% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.67
Interest coverage ratio is -52.47% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 100.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.306
Statistical significance of correlation:
ATLC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.561
Stock price is -45.46% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.561
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.036
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.114
Kurtosis
6.926
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.197
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ATLC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
95%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
29.49%
Operating profit margin is 1.43% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
95%
Effective Tax Rate:
20.03%
Effective tax rate is -7.52% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
62.99%
Return on equity (ROE) is 48.57% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
8.98%
Return on assets (ROA) is 48.26% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
4.9x
Current Ratio:
3.64
Current ratio is -37.01% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
-
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.64%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.7M
Each employee generates 128% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
843.2K
Each employee generates 101% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
526.3K
Each employee generates 117% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
246.2K
Each employee generates 321% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates 321% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ATLC
SONDER HOLDINGS INC (XNAS:SOND)
BANK FIRST CORPORATION (XNAS:BFC)
TriState Capital Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:TSCAP)
DIAMOND HILL INVESTMENT GROUP, INC. (XNAS:DHIL)
Vector Acquisition Corp II (XNAS:VAQC)
First Community Bankshares, Inc. (XNAS:FCBC)
ACTC
ARROW FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:AROW)
MERCANTILE BANK CORPORATION (XNAS:MBWM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
542.07M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
11.43M
218.41M
-
25.79M
92.69M
66.91M
37.96M
58.53M
416.49M
59.24M
3.57M
276.57M
159.87M
172.63M
205.41M
41.14M
172.63M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.92M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.11M
Change in Working Capital :
32.97M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
80.75M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
373.47M
-
373.47M
4.38B
-
-
4.75B
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.92B
50.91M
1.27B
43.10M
- 15878.00K
-
1.31B
-
202.29M
202.29M
-
1.51B
-
113.83M
-
160.24M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
69.96M
274.07M
1.78B
-
1.27B
897.8M
-
- 102631.00K
- 102631.00K
- 54703.00K
-
-
- 6016.00K
- 18540.00K
- 79259.00K
- 10.00K
- 101151.00K
405.48M
506.63M
80.75M
-
80.75M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ATLC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$30.80
$73.06
$81.44
$90.79
$101.22