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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (XNAS:AUB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AUB
Name:
ATLANTIC UNION BANKSHARES CORPORATION (XNAS:AUB)
Sector:
111.45M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. John Asbury
Total Employees:
1,876
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -229.59% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ATLANTIC UNION BANKSHARES CORPORATION(AUB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
32.19
One Month Price Target:
$32.38
Six Month Price Target :
$33.34
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$34.48
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$32.03
Price Upper limit ($) :
$32.36
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$30.18
This week:
$27.71
This month :
$23.22
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.43B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
74.70M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.14%
-14.58%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$41.50
$37.25
$22.88
$27.13
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$35.87
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.96
$28.50
$29.42
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AUB
Sharpe Ratio:
0.47%
Comparison:
AUB, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -61.57% lower than the industry
& is -79.29% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AUB
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.12%
Monthly returns:
0.46%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -48.93% below industry average
Classification:
AUB, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.96
Statistical test of Returns:
AUB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.04%
Weekly Volatility:
6.81%
Monthly Volatility:
13.61%
Yearly Volatility:
47.16%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.26%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -91.38% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.23%
Weekly VaR:
-13.93%
Monthly VaR:
-27.86%
How Much Can the price of
AUB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$24.34
This translates to price declining to:
$4.83
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AUB is a 96.62% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 68.44% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 6.57% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AUB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.06
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.664
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.939
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.939
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.471
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.875
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.118
Beta is -5.20% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 9.94% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.60%
Sustainable growth rate is -27.72% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.048
Alpha is -516.68% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -308% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AUB
Equity cost of capital:
0.104
Equity cost of capital is 6.73% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.22%
Before-tax cost of debt:
9.22%
After-tax cost of debt:
7.28%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
7.28%
WACC is -9.95% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.91
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.96
Annual revenue growth rate is -62.52% below industry average
EPS:
$3.11
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
10.59%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -11.88% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.67
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 38.48%
Equity growth rate per share is -0.62% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$5.21
EBITDA per share
$5.11
Valuation Analysis Today of
AUB
P/E Ratio:
11.25
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
184.7
P/E ratio is -93.91% lower than main peers & is -9.36% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $38.59
AUB is -16.59% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $76.29
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $12.31
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.61
Price to sales ratio is -15.49% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.96
Price to free cash flow: 6.89
Price to free cash flow ratio is -50.89% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
50.71%
Net income growth rate is -7.92% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 8.42%
Dividend yeild: 3.48%
Previous Dividend: $0.28
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.28
Previous Dividend: $1.12
Expected next dividend best case: $0.29
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.27
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.26
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.20%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/01/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 18/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/01/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/03/2022
Previous dividend record date: 20/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-19--$0.28
2021-11-10--$0.28
2021-05-20--$0.28
2022-02-10--$0.28
2021-08-12--$0.28
2021-02-11--$0.25
Dividend growth rate is -94.91% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
15.57%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-0.09%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.97%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-0.01%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.82% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
10.65
Interest coverage ratio is 1185.34% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-34.10%
Annual debt growth is -10866% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.425
Statistical significance of correlation:
AUB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -15.16% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.03
Kurtosis
5.731
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.574
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AUB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.33%
Operating profit margin is -99.09% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.34%
Effective tax rate is -19.53% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.06%
Return on equity (ROE) is -15.64% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.27%
Return on assets (ROA) is -44.85% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 115.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.96%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
354.7K
Each employee generates -7% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
203.6K
Each employee generates -10% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
134.0K
Each employee generates -5% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
59.4K
Each employee generates -29% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.7M
Each employee generates -29% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
AUB
OLD NATIONAL BANCORP (XNAS:ONB)
SIMMONS FIRST NATIONAL CORPORATION (XNAS:SFNC)
COLUMBIA BANKING SYSTEM, INC. (XNAS:COLB)
PROSPECT CAPITAL CORPORATION (XNAS:PSEC)
INTERNATIONAL BANCSHARES CORPORATION (XNAS:IBOC)
NAVIENT CORPORATION (XNAS:NAVI)
TRUPANION, INC. (XNAS:TRUP)
FIRSTCASH HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:FCFS)
INDEPENDENT BANK GROUP, INC. (XNAS:IBTX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
665.37M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
159.31M
-
261.32M
271.31M
9.99M
- 68579.00K
2.16M
583.14M
35.85M
41.90M
381.90M
2.16M
251.42M
304.15M
52.74M
251.42M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.60M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.41M
Change in Working Capital :
61.75M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
111.45M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 62773.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
391.37M
3.19B
3.58B
-
-
-
3.58B
131.00M
935.56M
40.27M
3.95B
-
-
5.06B
21.25B
19.78B
-
-
-
-
-
-
389.01M
-
389.01M
17.67B
17.28B
99.65M
803.35M
- 191483.0K
1.79B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
2.50B
19.78B
7.14B
389.01M
- 2360.0K
-
- 277240.00K
- 340013.00K
-
217.00K
- 25018.00K
- 21163.00K
- 131668.00K
- 177632.00K
-
- 406198.00K
396.30M
802.50M
111.45M
-
111.45M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AUB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$34.65
$203.57
$218.06
$233.58
$250.21