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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. (XNAS:ATRA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ATRA
Name:
ATARA BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:ATRA)
Sector:
- 87134.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Pascal Touchon
Total Employees:
434
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 16.15% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ATARA BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC.(ATRA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
4.29
One Month Price Target:
$4.31
Six Month Price Target :
$4.43
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$4.56
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$4.25
Price Upper limit ($) :
$4.33
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$3.8
This week:
$3.19
This month :
$2.08
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
399.15M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
94.36M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
29.2%
-55.08%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$6.58
$5.54
$2.00
$3.04
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$5.20
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$4.98
$3.37
$3.60
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ATRA
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.51%
Comparison:
ATRA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -126.13% lower than the industry
& is -122.29% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ATRA
Daily returns:
-0.02%
Weekly returns:
-0.10%
Monthly returns:
-0.39%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -118.64% below industry average
Classification:
ATRA, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.68
Statistical test of Returns:
ATRA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.60%
Weekly Volatility:
12.52%
Monthly Volatility:
25.04%
Yearly Volatility:
86.73%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
5.10%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -8.85% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.52%
Weekly VaR:
-25.75%
Monthly VaR:
-51.51%
How Much Can the price of
ATRA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-46%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$2.33
This translates to price declining to:
$0.64
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ATRA is a 263.53% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 211.43% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 17.75% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ATRA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.94
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.274
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.387
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.871
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.635
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.916
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.071
Beta is -12.41% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -18.51% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.143
Alpha is -200.68% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -909% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ATRA
Equity cost of capital:
0.096
Equity cost of capital is -13.23% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.89%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.66%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.52%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.52%
WACC is 1.23% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.26
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.8
-
EPS:
-$3.65
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-13.81%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -238.41% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.18
EBITDA per share
-$3.61
Valuation Analysis Today of
ATRA
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17.38
-
-
ATRA is -101.31% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
16.8
Price to sales ratio is -58.53% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.8
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-31.04%
Net income growth rate is -143.98% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
7.78%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-37.54%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.39%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-21.20%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -89.58% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-2965.53
Interest coverage ratio is 2405.88% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
69.83%
Annual debt growth is -48% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.37%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.211
Statistical significance of correlation:
ATRA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -38.09% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.034
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.111
Kurtosis
17.727
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.9
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ATRA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-1453.97%
Operating profit margin is 239.17% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.01%
Effective tax rate is -100.23% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-155.99%
Return on equity (ROE) is 172.07% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-88.08%
Return on assets (ROA) is 331.69% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
3.1
Current ratio is -61.76% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-4.10%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
55.5K
Each employee generates -97% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 785.8K
Each employee generates -304% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 806.2K
Each employee generates -730% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 200.8K
Each employee generates -236% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
191.0K
Each employee generates -236% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 15.27%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -525.55% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ATRA
ATRION CORPORATION (XNAS:ATRI)
HUMANIGEN, INC. (XNAS:HGEN)
DYNAVAX TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION (XNAS:DVAX)
PRAN
ESSA Pharma Inc. (XNAS:EPIX)
Tabula Rasa HealthCare, Inc. (XNAS:TRHC)
RHYTHM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:RYTM)
MIMEDX GROUP, INC. (XNAS:MDXG)
PHIBRO ANIMAL HEALTH CORPORATION (XNAS:PAHC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�4%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
24.10M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
292.91M
81.63M
81.63M
-
-
374.54M
-
115.00K
8.71M
- 341036.00K
- 350437.00K
- 349911.00K
- 349865.00K
46.00K
- 349911.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.59M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
14.34M
Change in Working Capital :
- 13482.00K
Accounts Receivables:
318.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 9294.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.13M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 84529.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 2605.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 26427.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
101.67M
200.14M
301.81M
668.00K
-
11.91M
314.39M
28.04M
-
-
-
-
54.85M
82.89M
-
397.28M
11.95M
-
-
50.94M
38.67M
101.56M
17.45M
8.95M
71.40M
-
172.96M
9.00K
- 1552827.00K
- 1892.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
374.54M
224.32M
397.28M
-
17.45M
- 84216.0K
89.25M
-
60.22M
- 64.00K
20.54M
-
-
- 624.00K
19.85M
-
- 4463.00K
103.02M
107.48M
- 84529.00K
- 2605.00K
- 87134.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ATRA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$4.57
$4.86
$5.17
$5.50
$5.84