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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
At&T Inc. (XNYS:T) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
T
Name:
AT&T INC. (XNYS:T)
Sector:
984.00M
Industry:
Telecom Services
CEO:
Mr. Randall Stephenson
Total Employees:
203,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 123.27% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AT&T INC.(T) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TELECOM SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
17.19
One Month Price Target:
$17.23
Six Month Price Target :
$17.45
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$17.7
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$17.13
Price Upper limit ($) :
$17.23
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$16.55
This week:
$15.76
This month :
$14.33
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
119.65B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
7.13B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.02%
-9.24%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$20.16
$18.83
$14.22
$15.55
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$18.40
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$18.12
$15.97
$16.26
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
T
Sharpe Ratio:
-3.83%
Comparison:
T, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -493.55% lower than the industry
& is -267.88% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
T
Daily returns:
-0.06%
Weekly returns:
-0.30%
Monthly returns:
-1.19%
Yearly returns:
17.77%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -180.10% below industry average
Classification:
T, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.13
Statistical test of Returns:
T has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.78%
Weekly Volatility:
3.98%
Monthly Volatility:
7.97%
Yearly Volatility:
27.60%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.99%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -44.71% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.72%
Weekly VaR:
-8.31%
Monthly VaR:
-16.63%
How Much Can the price of
T
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-15%
Worst case (decline):
-57.60%
This translates to price declining to:
$14.54
This translates to price declining to:
$7.29
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
T is a 17.36% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 0.54% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -47.73% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
T
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.44
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.479
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.677
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.238
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.445
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.59
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.198
Beta is -63.12% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.819
Beta is -46.01% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
3.14%
Sustainable growth rate is -69.12% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.204
Alpha is -326.44% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1300% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
T
Equity cost of capital:
0.062
Equity cost of capital is -29.46% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.32%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.95%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.33%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.33%
WACC is -16.92% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$22.88
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.66
Annual revenue growth rate is -101.62% below industry average
EPS:
$2.37
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
13.25%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -46.49% lower than the Telecom Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.81
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 6.41%
Equity growth rate per share is -140.32% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$28.23
EBITDA per share
$7.22
Valuation Analysis Today of
T
P/E Ratio:
6.28
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
37.36
P/E ratio is -83.20% lower than main peers & is -78.73% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $69.93
T is -75.42% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $39.34
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $16.51
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.75
Price to sales ratio is -87.99% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.66
Price to free cash flow: 6.11
Price to free cash flow ratio is -73.71% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-1.82%
Net income growth rate is -100.45% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 21.62%
Dividend yeild: 10.69%
Previous Dividend: $0.28
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.28
Previous Dividend: $1.84
Expected next dividend best case: $0.34
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.22
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.50
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -4.46%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/01/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 23/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 05/02/2022
Previous dividend record date: 14/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 25/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-13--$0.28
2021-10-08--$0.52
2021-04-08--$0.39
2022-01-07--$0.39
2021-07-08--$0.39
2021-01-08--$0.39
Dividend growth rate is 33.78% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
107.82%
Net debt to equity ratio:
101.80%
Debt to assets ratio:
34.85%
Net debt to assets ratio:
32.90%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -54.42% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.64
Interest coverage ratio is 386.61% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
11.43%
Annual debt growth is -100% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.05%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.613
Statistical significance of correlation:
T has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.461
Stock price is 32.79% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.461
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.056
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.057
Kurtosis
6.725
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.085
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
T
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
213%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
13.08%
Operating profit margin is 317.97% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
213%
Effective Tax Rate:
20.39%
Effective tax rate is -36.84% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.30%
Return on equity (ROE) is -342.07% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.00%
Return on assets (ROA) is -1748.50% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
0.93
Current ratio is -42.30% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-189.8
Cash conversion cycle is -368.15% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
803.1K
Each employee generates -20% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
253.5K
Each employee generates -27% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
85.4K
Each employee generates -18% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
4.8K
Each employee generates -92% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.5M
Each employee generates -92% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
T
VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC. (XNYS:VZ)
SEA LIMITED (XNYS:SE)
SNAP INC. (XNYS:SNAP)
America Mobile (XNYS:AMOV)
RELX PLC (XNYS:RELX)
ROBLOX CORPORATION (XNYS:RBLX)
BCE Inc (XNYS:BCE)
DOORDASH, INC. (XNYS:DASH)
Spotify Technology SA (XNYS:SPOT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�13%
Hold�83%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
163.03B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
76.28B
86.75B
-
-
37.93B
-
32.94B
70.87B
-
6.74B
22.59B
51.46B
21.33B
17.34B
23.49B
4.79B
17.34B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
5.54B
Differed Income Tax :
932.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 7238000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 228000.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 259000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.69B
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
5.73B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 9244000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
38.57B
-
38.57B
17.22B
3.15B
17.92B
76.86B
151.10B
133.25B
158.83B
5.94B
-
198.60B
500.34B
-
577.20B
-
27.33B
-
5.18B
49.98B
82.49B
201.14B
-
267.11B
575.25B
390.64B
7.62B
45.04B
3.3B
130.60B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
136.80B
186.56B
577.20B
-
228.48B
189.9B
-
- 3407000.00K
- 12651000.00K
- 4209000.00K
26.00M
- 197000.00K
- 3749000.00K
32.38B
24.25B
-
17.33B
38.65B
21.32B
5.73B
- 4748000.00K
984.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
T
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$17.79
$41.54
$42.77
$44.04
$45.35